Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukraine sends multiple drones over to Moscow to give the Russian people a little reminder of what they have been suffering in Kiev the last month. No reports of significant casualties yet, or what the targets were, although I expect most were intercepted.

I think it is a distraction. Much like the border incursion. "Look over there!"...

[clv101]

Ukraine sends multiple drones over to Moscow to give the Russian people a little reminder of what they have been suffering in Kiev the last month. No reports of significant casualties yet, or what the targets were, although I expect most were intercepted.

Psychologically, bringing some sense of the war to regular Muscovites could have consequences.

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukraine sends multiple drones over to Moscow to give the Russian people a little reminder of what they have been suffering in Kiev the last month. No reports of significant casualties yet, or what the targets were, although I expect most were intercepted.

Psychologically, bringing some sense of the war to regular Muscovites could have consequences.

The reaction from Moscow is nothing short of hilarious. "They targeted civilians. It's terrorism!" It is like the school bully has spent the whole of the last year running rampage all around the school, and now somebody has hit them on the nose with a pea-shooter and they've burst into tears.

[PS_RalphW]

The audience for these comments is not the outside world, it is the majority of Russian nationals who get all their information from state controlled media. Putin is looking very weak, not from moderates or even the boss of Wagner, but from the lunatic fringe who still believe that Russia is a great power who is being held back by being too soft and timid in its holy war to regain its god given empire.

They make the US neocons look rational.

[adam2]

The unknown factor in my view, is what effect these drone attacks will have on russian public opinion.

Calls for firm action against Ukraine, to stop any more attacks ?

Or calls for withdrawal of russian forces from Ukrainian territory, in order that Ukraine has no reason for more attacks ?

[PS_RalphW]

Another attack in Belgarod by the "Russian Rebels". This one targeted a town in the south of the region, and at least 3 buildings in the town have been hit, apparently by accurate artillery fire, two were government buildings and a third a factory that might have had military based there. No video evidence yet of troops on the ground, but this is a carefully planned attack, not random shelling.

Interestingly, there was a small Ukrainian advance just to the east of Voledar, directly north of Melitapol. Given that the Ukrainians have said they are ready to counter attack, and Wagner are rotating out of Bakhmut, tying down more Russian units to replace them, and multiple distratcion attacks far to the north in Russia in the last few days, this seems the exact moment and location for the counter attack to start. Watch that space.

[UndercoverElephant]

These cross-border attacks are very interesting. They aren't being conducted by the Ukrainian government. This is in effect the beginning of a civil war -- they are Russians who want to get rid of Putin. All Ukraine is doing is giving them somewhere to attack from, as Belarus did for the Russians. The Russians can't claim this is a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory, because it obviously isn't. And they certainly can't ignore it, because it could very quickly turn from a cross-border raid into something much more serious. But their problem is they have no idea where the next attack is going to come from. It could be anywhere on the entire front line.

[PS_RalphW]

I am certain that these attacks are heavily influenced in their direction and timing by Ukraine, who are also providing the rebels with weapons and training, and possibly a lot of financial input. I in no way blame Ukraine, but the numbers of Russians in these units is tiny in the scale of this war, and are basically a gnat designed to knock the bear off balance whilst it gets squashed. There is no significant pro Western rebellion against Putin.

Which is not to say most Russians hate the West. They are simply disengaged.

[UndercoverElephant]

Curious reddit thread. Claims to link to a video showing Russian lines under attack as part of the counter-offensive, followed by a comment saying "we shouldn't be able to see this", before the video was pulled from youtube.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfl ... deo_shows/

Also reports of explosions in Melitopol and Berdyansk, in the last 30 minutes. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfl ... topol_and/

I think the counter-offensive has started.

[clv101]

Here's an alternative take:
https://indi.ca/why-russia-is-going-to-win/

[UndercoverElephant]

Here's an alternative take:
https://indi.ca/why-russia-is-going-to-win/

Can't say I'm impressed by the reasoning in that. The "resolve" of the Russian leadership might be very high, but it is not translating into resolve on the front line. The Ukrainians are clearly far more motivated to win.

[invalid]

Can't say I'm impressed by the reasoning in that. The "resolve" of the Russian leadership might be very high, but it is not translating into resolve on the front line. The Ukrainians are clearly far more motivated to win.

Any evidence for that assertion?

[clv101]

Can't say I'm impressed by the reasoning in that. The "resolve" of the Russian leadership might be very high, but it is not translating into resolve on the front line. The Ukrainians are clearly far more motivated to win.

Any evidence for that assertion?

The fact the Ukrainians are still there, despite the odds, still in the fight?

[UndercoverElephant]

Can't say I'm impressed by the reasoning in that. The "resolve" of the Russian leadership might be very high, but it is not translating into resolve on the front line. The Ukrainians are clearly far more motivated to win.

Any evidence for that assertion?

Frequent examples of Russian conscripts running at the first sign of trouble?

The Ukrainians truly believe they are in the moral right, and are fighting to free their country from invaders. Most of the Russians are only fighting because they have no choice -- they were conscripted, and the penalties for not fighting are worse than fighting. But they do not truly believe in their cause and all they really want is to avoid being killed. In those circumstances, if it is a war of attrition, Ukraine will win.

I am still expecting Ukraine to take back the vast majority of its occupied territory, including Crimea. They may decide some parts of the eastern Donbas is not worth the trouble of recapturing.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fighting-ukr ... 00254.html

"Disposable" infantry troops often continue trying to advance even after being wounded and fight until killed; in some cases they have been fired on from their own lines when they try to retreat, according to Ukrainian accounts. Captured Russian fighters have reported executions under similar circumstances. More cannon fodder will then be sent in until the Ukrainians have revealed their positions and exhausted their ammunition.

According to the RUSI report, the term "human wave attacks" has been misleadingly applied to the way Russia has employed these infantry forces. While successive attacks by small teams are not conducive to battlefield gains, "the continuous conduct of this activity, across all axes, is a form of reconnaissance" allowing Russian forces to find weak points in Ukraine's defenses or reveal strong points to be bombarded, the report says.

Weak points are prioritized for a prepared assault, and stronger positions are designated for attrition by sustained fire from specialized infantry. Disposable infantry is tasked with going forward to prepare jumping-off points for those assaults or to dig positions from which snipers and heavy-weapons teams can fire on Ukrainian forces.

The assault troops attack in larger company-size formations, backed by tanks and artillery as they attempt to outflank Ukrainian defenses. Once their mission is complete, assault forces are replaced by line and disposable infantry, who begin preparing for the next attack.