Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

Further reports of Ukrainian gains north and south of Bakhmut. These are limited and there is a lot of fog,

Unlikely that there would be this much smoke without any fire. Though whether this is the beginning of the much heralded counter-offensive is another question. Just losing Bakhmut would be an unspeakable disaster for the Russians after what it cost them to almost take it. It would surely be the point where the politics breaks at home -- where it becomes impossible to deny that the war has been a catastrophe and things are likely to get much worse.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia has lost 5 (possibly 6) aircraft in 2 days, at least 4 shot down over Russian territory. It is not clear who or what shot them, as they were 50km plus inside Russia. Long range missiles is possible but 4 hits in a few minutes seems an incredibly lucky strike. Man pads from infiltrated special forces or partisans is one option, I have even seen one theory that a Russian anti aircraft system somehow went rogue and turned on their own aircraft.

Special forces seems most likely to me, and suggests this is part of the softening up phase for the main counter attack

The loss of the pilots will be more significant than the airframes

[Mark]

For a bit of balance, Russia is still having some 'successes' too....

Colossal explosion heard at NATO supplied ammunition facility in Khmelnytskyi:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tkr5Q0aadXk

Clearly propaganda, but a bit rich when they say on the video that they only target military supplies provided by the West and not civilian infrastructure.....

[PS_RalphW]

Washington Post reports that the leader of Wagner offered to give Ukraine intelligence on Russian force locations in exchange for withdrawing from the rest of Bakhmut. If true, this would be treason. However, I would not take one media report as clear evidence. I do not know when the reported offer was made

[automaticearth2]

I'm wondering if the apparent sudden uptick in supply of more advanced weaponry to Ukraine is to try and get the war more or less concluded as soon as possible to avoid any issues with ongoing support from the US should Chump get elected.

[UndercoverElephant]

It looks to me like Russia, having badly overplayed its hand at the start of the war, decided to wage a war of attrition in the hope that eventually the Ukrainians would be worn down, and the strategy has turned out to be a total failure. It has actually happened the other way around -- it is the Russians who have been worn down, and now the Ukrainians are steadily ramping up their firepower and nibbling away at the Russian front line. Psychologically, everything is in Ukraine's favour now. The Russians would desperately like to just be able to hold on to what they've taken, but all the time their position is weakening. It really is just a matter of when rather than if there is a major breakthrough, at which point all thoughts will turn to the endgame -- can Russia hold on to any Ukrainian territory at all? How fast does the end come? And what happens inside Russia?

[clv101]

The state of Russia's civil aviation industry is quite remarkable:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1658 ... 75201.html

It's incredible how far they have collapsed since the '60-'80s when Russia (with significant contributions from other Soviet states, especially Ukraine) were state of the art in many technical, scientific and engineering fields.

Now they can't even carry out routine maintenance on run of the mill civilian aircraft, can't manufacturer spare parts etc.

Is this a foretaste of technology collapse coming to our neighborhood soon?

[UndercoverElephant]

Is this a foretaste of technology collapse coming to our neighborhood soon?

That depends on the rate and extent of the reverse of globalisation, I suspect. A lot of those spare parts are presumably still available on international markets which Russia now has very limited access to.

[BritDownUnder]

A ride on a Balkan Air Tupelov passenger plane in the late 1980s on a trip to Bulgaria told me all I needed to know about the state of the Russian airline industry. I guess the Russians have focused entirely on space and particularly military technology in the last few decades and it does not seem to have served them too well so far.

A portent of the future of outsourcing of all business to China and India. Thankfully it looks like things are changing. I even saw an Australian made irrigation hose recently having bought it without knowing the fact.

As far as the war goes I think it is still too early to tell. I see no reason for any high casualty Ukrainian offensive but it would be nice to recapture the nuclear power station and the most fertile farmland taken in the South. Keep on attriting the Russians on the front lines. In the end I think there will be a deal and Ukraine will become a NATO member Trump or no Trump.

[UndercoverElephant]

The big obstacle to a deal is Crimea. It is crucial to Ukraine to retake it, for strategic defence reasons. I don't think Ukraine will agree to a deal until /unless it has been retaken, but I also don't think Putin can survive as Russian leader if that happens.

[BritDownUnder]

Putin going on trial in the Hague could be part of a deal.

I see no need to do a deal just yet. It would be nice to see the Russian Black Sea fleet at the bottom of Sevastopol harbour first. The Russian do believe they have a genuine claim on the Crimea, being that they took it from the Turks/Tatars a few hundred years ago, and will fight hard to retain it.

[kenneal - lagger]

Ukraine is now in a position to bomb three of the four Kerch Bridge lanes, allowing one for the retreat of their forces, and then to deny Russian forces any resupply. That would make the Russian's position completely untenable.

Regarding Bakhmut, the advance there is slow because it is largely an infantry led advance and is limited to how fast Ukrainian infantry can march/run. The new offensive will be much faster as it will be a mechanised punch through the Russian lines and then a rapid spread out behind the lines cutting off large areas of Russian held territory.

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukraine is now in a position to bomb three of the four Kerch Bridge lanes, allowing one for the retreat of their forces, and then to deny Russian forces any resupply. That would make the Russian's position completely untenable.

Why not bomb all four? That would force them to retreat the long way round, or risk that route being cut off too and losing all the equipment and being forced to evacuate the humans by boat. If Ukraine can take out that bridge, I can't see any reason for leaving it intact. I'd bomb it right now.

Regarding Bakhmut, the advance there is slow because it is largely an infantry led advance and is limited to how fast Ukrainian infantry can march/run. The new offensive will be much faster as it will be a mechanised punch through the Russian lines and then a rapid spread out behind the lines cutting off large areas of Russian held territory.

Maybe. Or maybe they've got some other plan that the Russians aren't expecting. I feel like whatever seems like the most sensible thing to expect, that's exactly what won't happen.

[kenneal - lagger]

A Chinese general, who many people quote, said that it is best to always leave a route for the enemy to retreat along so that they are less inclined to fight to the end. You also know where to shell them as they go!!

[PS_RalphW]

Russia claims full control of Bakhmut, Ukraine may still have a tiny hold in an outermost industrial sector. Lots of softening up long range strikes continue, a military headquarters near Mariupol hit today probably by Stormshadow, possible underground bunker destroyed.