Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

I suspect they would choose Russia. The world is fracturing and it's far from clear for many countries (South Africa, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Malaysia etc) that the US/EU/UK et al. is the most attractive fraction to be associated with.

[PS_RalphW]

South Africa now back tracking on plan to leave ICC.

[adam2]

A russian oil depot in occupied Crimea is ablaze and burning furiously.
Blamed on a Ukrainian drone attack, probably true.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65434772

[BritDownUnder]

Oil does tend to burn quite well particularly when an excess of oxygen is present. I am sure this is not news for most people. Russian oil and its refined products seems to burn particularly well especially when stored in Black Sea fleet flagships, in Russian aircraft full of fuel flying over countries that don't want them there and in Russian tanks that are driving around in countries that don't want them there.

I look forward to a Ukrainian drone that can carry a large Molotov cocktail and deposit it and ignite it on representatives of foreign countries that should not legally be in Ukraine.

[PS_RalphW]

At least one drone hit the.roof of the Kremlin overnight, caught on video. Very little damage and almost certainly a symbolic attack possibly by disaffected Russians. Of course Russia claims it was an unsuccessful assassination attempt on Putin by Ukraine. Might have been false flag to stir up nationalist fever for 9th May celebrations

[BritDownUnder]

Just imagine thousands of cheap drones, perhaps doing circuits of the Kremlin (I had the chance some years ago to walk around the outside of the Kremlin walls) maybe they could even deploy banners denouncing despotism or promoting Slavic brotherly friendship.

The Torygraph had an article about a pulsejet propelled drone that could be made in a Ukrainian shed and could be used to fool air defences or even cause them to expend an expensive number of missiles. It's becoming a race to attrite the enemy and cause them to spend more money than you.

[PS_RalphW]

The total lack of damage to the roof or injuries to the people climbing the roof at the time (at 3am?} points to this being a false flag. The type of drone used was not the sort you buy on the high street and if it was an attack the attacker would have included something bigger than a firework.

Ukraine is using it's drones on more tactical targets like oil refineries

[Potemkin Villager]

It had desperate stunt written all over it. Conflicting hysterical narratives coming out of the Kremlin suggests headless chicken syndrome.

[BritDownUnder]

Yes the flag happily flapping in the breeze was totally unaffected.

Could be a statement from Ukraine saying that we can get a drone to the Kremlin untouched or a Russian false flag operation. Speculation that it could be used as a justification for a murder attempt on Zelensky.

[PS_RalphW]

Wagner is threatening to withdraw all its forces from Bakhmut on 10th, day after the May Day celebrations. They are basically saying “we have done our bit, captured the city, and saved face for Putin. We are now going home so that we can rebuild and retrain our forces, so that we can ride to the rescue of the Russian People again, the next time the regular military screw up”. This is a veiled threat to Putin that his job is not secure.

[Mark]

So did that failed Ukrainian boat-based commando raid yesterday on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant really happen?

Either way, why is there so little Western coverage of this claimed incident?

https://news.yahoo.com/fighting-erupts- ... p_catchall

Ukraine war: 'Mad panic' as Russia evacuates town near Zaporizhzhia plant:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65515443

This is the aspect that worries me the most in this conflict....
Really admire the staff who have kept the plant going so far under what must be the most terrible duress...

[PS_RalphW]

Reports of a small counter offensive to the south of Bakhmut reclaiming 3 - 6 sq km of territory from Russian forces. This is confirmed by the leader of Wagner, who points out of course that it is regular Russian troops who have been overrun/retreated.

[PS_RalphW]

Just watched a 2 hour talk by a military analyst from the iiss, by a retired uk colonel. No great insight, but he highlighted an MOD proposal to supply Ukraine with longer range artillery. His view was Ukraine will be very focused on putting pressure on Crimea in this spring offensive, but in the longer term their attention will turn to inflicting damage directly on Russian infrastructure.

His view as to the winner in this war was very clear - China.

I personally think that Russian forces are estremely weak and Ukraine will make significant territory in the next few months, but they don't have the hardware and numbers of trained troops to push them all the way.

It wasn't only Russia that looked in its stores of old cold war weaponry and found that it hadn't been maintained to operational standards.

Russia is finished as a world power and is now another client state of China.

One story I missed, apparently every speed trap camera in Sweden was stolen in a single day, and presumably stripped for parts and shipped to Russia for war spares

[clv101]

I personally think that Russian forces are estremely weak and Ukraine will make significant territory in the next few months, but they don't have the hardware and numbers of trained troops to push them all the way.

Indeed, Russia's conventional forces are shattered. There is still some brute force and weight of numbers but their ground offensive is over - especially if western support continues. In my view, a defeat on the battle field increases the likelihood of nuclear weapons being used. Whether that increase is from 1% chance to 5% or 10% to 50% is harder to gauge though!

Agree that China have benefited, learnt a lot, improved the relative geopolitical position and if, over the next decade, they can absorb the majority of Russia's considerable bio-physical resources they are sitting pretty for the 21st Century.

[PS_RalphW]

Further reports of Ukrainian gains north and south of Bakhmut. These are limited and there is a lot of fog, but Russian bloggers appear to be panicking and the leader of Wagner is apoplectic at the prospect of being encircled and wiped out. This seems extremely unlikely in the short term, but it is clear that there is growing dissent in Russian political circles.