Gas supply crunch

[Mark]

.............. It also has high injection and withdrawal rates - up to 33mm³/d.

Millimetres cubed per day?

https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com ... e-project/
Suspect they mean 33 million m³/d.....

[kenneal - lagger]

Should be Mm^3/day.

[PS_RalphW]

NG below 100p / therm for the first time since july 2021

[adam2]

NG below 100p / therm for the first time since july 2021

Good !
I consider higher prices for fossil fuels to be a good thing within reason. A wholesale price of about 100 pence a therm is IMHO reasonable. Such prices are high enough to encourage a steady move away from fossil fuels and towards renewables.

Prices of hundreds of pence per therm as recently reached were IMHO excessive and so high as to do serious harm to the economy. Natural gas wont last forever, so the sooner that we get used to higher prices and lower volumes the better.

[adam2]

NG below 100p / therm for the first time since july 2021

After spending some time above 100 pence, prices have now fallen below 100 pence again. Around this price is in my view good. High enough to encourage less consumption, but low enough to limit hardship.

[adam2]

It looks as though the gas panic is over for now.
Prices have fallen fallen to about 60 pence a therm, and have been below 100 pence for some time.
These prices are still above historical normal figures, but only moderately.
Demand should fall for several reasons.
Warmer weather, less heating.
Higher prices discouraging consumption.
Growing use of wind power, reducing gas burnt for power generation.

I would like to see gas remain between about 50 pence and about 100 pence a therm, high enough to encourage renewable energy, but low enough to limit the hardship.

We should of course be prepared for a return of the high prices reached recently.

[Ralphw2]

Gas price jumped yesterday by 30% to back over 100p. Fell slightly today. Does anyone know why? No reports of infrastructure attacks in the Ukraine war that I have heard.

[clv101]

The markets are just starting to awaken from peak complacency.
This coming winter will be colder than last winter - prices will be again, high.

[BritDownUnder]

Maybe some storage capacity is starting to be filled?

Or some gas exporter has put up the prices or reduced production.

The amount of wood smoke I have smelt this winter is just amazing. Roll on the PM2.5 count.

[adam2]

An industrial dispute is threatened at an Australian LNG plant.
https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/08/ ... certainty/

Under normal conditions, a strike at one plant the other side of the world would not be very significant for the UK. However circumstances are not normal at present. Putin's war has restricted russian supplies and increased reliance on LNG imports from distant suppliers. AFAIK we do not import significant gas from Australia, but any lack thereof would add to a general tightness of supply and increase prices.

[Ralphw2]

Gas price rising rapidly, 120p so far, on prospects of an LNG terminal strike in the far east.

[Vortex2]

It's time to refill my butane cylinders for winter I think ...

(The heat pump in our eco house is a tiny bit under-specced for really cold weather)

[Vortex2]

This coming winter will be colder than last winter

How do you know this?

[clv101]

First order thinking, simple revision to the mean, last winter was warm. Secondly, there's a weak association with El Niño and cooler European winters - though El Niño isn't the dominant factor and it's a bit early for seasonal forecasts yet.

[Vortex2]

Ah ha! Bard says:

It is still too early to say for sure whether the coming winter in the UK will be colder or warmer than usual. However, there are some factors that suggest that it could be warmer than average.

Climate change is causing global temperatures to rise. This trend is expected to continue in the coming years, including in the UK.
The La Niña weather pattern is currently in effect. La Niña is associated with warmer winters in the UK.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is expected to be in a positive phase this winter. A positive NAO is also associated with warmer winters in the UK.
Of course, there is no guarantee that the coming winter will be warmer than average. The UK weather is notoriously unpredictable, and there is always the possibility of a cold snap. However, the factors listed above suggest that it is more likely to be warmer than colder.