Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

Lots more talk of a Ukrainian counter attack, but I think they would be wise to wait a few more weeks. I doubt they will have the element of surprise the had last year.

That depends on the nature, scale and location of the counter-offensive. The Russians are defending a very long front, and most sources are saying that the location is a no-brainer -- that it must involve an attempt to blitzkrieg through to the south coast towards Melitopol, Mariupol and/or Berdyansk. So maybe it will come somewhere else.

[adam2]

I am pleased to report that several more vehicles full of aid for Ukraine have been sent from near here.
Contents included
Sheets and blankets, mainly for hospitals etc.
Hospital gowns.
Folding beds, wheelchairs, wheeled stretchers. Carrying chairs.
Industrial washing machines and GAS FIRED dryers.

The wheeled stretchers are generally used for mountain rescue and I was surprised by the need for same in a war zone. They are used for rescuing injured people and transporting them over badly damaged roads.

Most goods packed in four wheel drive trucks, these vehicles are also being donated. Several of the drivers are young Ukrainian men who initially fled to the UK, but now wish to return and fight.

The Polish government have sent generous amounts of food, including live beef cattle.

Small arms ammunition remains scarce but the position has improved slightly. Civilian volunteers now have at least 100 rounds each.

[adam2]

"Putin to station nukes in Belarus" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65077687

[PS_RalphW]

The MOD reports Russia committed a battalion of tanks to the attack on Avdivka which was manned by conscripted troops who had been training in Belarus for some months. They suffered heavy losses.

[kenneal - lagger]

There are also reports that Wagner group elite troops are being transferred from Bakhmut to Avdiivka to shore up the attack there because the Ukrainians are being so successful in degrading the Russian forces, again!! It is being talked about as a second Vuhledar the losses are so high on the Russian side.

[adam2]

The aid referred to a few posts back has now arrived and very much appreciated, hospital linen in particular, and industrial laundry equipment.
GAS heated dryers were a specific need, electricity supplies are often limited and adding multiple electric dryers each with a loading of 20 kw or more is unwise.

[PS_RalphW]

Russian ultranationalist blogger killed by exploding statue he was given as a present whilst in a cafe owned by Wagner group. 30 other people injured. Lots of conspiracy theories over who did it, leading with the FSB in a variation from falling from a high window. The blogger had been critical of Putin and the wars progress.

Wagner claims the have taken the central administration building in Bakhmut.

Some bloggers claim that. Ukraine was planning a major counter offensive around Bakhmut, but it was called off due to very heavy snow.

[BritDownUnder]

Clearly Russians of certain political and nationalistic orientation will need to take care before accepting awards. I am looking forward to those radioactive medals or NoviChok coated bracelets coming soon.

One has to wonder what Ukraine's chemical/biological weapons capability is.

[clv101]

One has to wonder what Ukraine's chemical/biological weapons capability is.

Likely minimal, they've got more immediate concerns than farting around in chemical labs. Nerve agents are hard to make and one of the fastest ways to lose public/political support in the west.

[UndercoverElephant]

The news blackout is deafening. The only news we've had from the front line in the last few weeks is that the Russians have thrown everything at Bakhmut and gained about 10 metres. We've been told that the counter-offensive is coming in May. I think it might be coming sooner.

[BritDownUnder]

One has to wonder what Ukraine's chemical/biological weapons capability is.

Likely minimal, they've got more immediate concerns than farting around in chemical labs. Nerve agents are hard to make and one of the fastest ways to lose public/political support in the west.

That Japanese doomsday cult managed to turn out some Sarin with only a few hundred members losing a few Chemists on the way I believe. As Ukrainians were part of the Soviet Union there were probably a few involved in that Chemical warfare industry.

I agree no need to use them just yet but a good idea to have them up your sleeve so you can use them if they get used like the Russians did in Syria. If ever a Ukrainian city got besieged with a large number of civilians and defenders then the Russians might get tempted to use chemical weapons to speed up the surrender.

[clv101]

I just read a book last week about the Japanese cult, Aum Shinrikyo and their adventures with Sarin. They were very well resourced and financed (tens of millions of dollars back in the '90s), on par with the mid-level state enterprise rather than a terrorist group. At the end of the day they did manage to produce lab bench quantities with a lot of impurities and totally failed to effectively weaponize it. I doubt Ukraine could replicate even what they did due to the inability to precure the specialist lab equipment covertly.

If ever a Ukrainian city got besieged with a large number of civilians and defenders then the Russians might get tempted to use chemical weapons to speed up the surrender.

Yep, this is possible, a repeat of what happened in Syria.

[adam2]

I regard chemical weapons as being somewhat comparable to nuclear weapons, reassuring to possess but hopefully never used.
IF Ukraine DO have access to chemical weapons, I very much hope that they will refrain from use of same.

[BritDownUnder]

I just read a book last week about the Japanese cult, Aum Shinrikyo and their adventures with Sarin. They were very well resourced and financed (tens of millions of dollars back in the '90s), on par with the mid-level state enterprise rather than a terrorist group. At the end of the day they did manage to produce lab bench quantities with a lot of impurities and totally failed to effectively weaponize it. I doubt Ukraine could replicate even what they did due to the inability to precure the specialist lab equipment covertly.

If ever a Ukrainian city got besieged with a large number of civilians and defenders then the Russians might get tempted to use chemical weapons to speed up the surrender.

Yep, this is possible, a repeat of what happened in Syria.

I think there are quite a lot of differences between a sovereign state and a cult both in terms of money but also international influence and control of things like Universities, Military research facilities and even things like customs clearance and importation facilities.

Just look at what North Korea has done with 25 million near starving people. Nuclear weapons, Currency counterfeiting, ballistic missiles, Magnox reactors etc etc.

One thing I did not realise was that Sarin, a relatively small molecule requires only 5 synthetic steps from commonly available chemicals.

[adam2]

Most potential chemical weapons are somewhat similar to pesticides and herbicides, and it is said that facilities for the manufacture of these agrichemicals could be modified to produce chemical weapons instead.

And of course some potential chemical weapons have legitimate peaceful applications and are therefore readily available.Chlorine for example. I recall a TV docudrama about bulk chlorine being as used in London as a terrorist weapon.