Ukraine Watch...

[Catweazle]

Some US drone assassinations are so accurate that they kill a specific person in a car. The latest guided missiles open up like an umbrella of swords just before impact and rather than explode they chop up the targeted man. Huge propaganda exercise.

[clv101]

Seems the US officials have today put out a story about Nordstream - fingering a "pro-Ukrainian group", without the involvement of Zelensky or his top lieutenants. It would suit the west if Russia did it, but no one's buying that. Second best is some unsanctioned, off-book, pro-Ukrainian group. This gives Zelensky plausible deniability so as not to sour relations with the Germans and provides cover for the US.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/p ... raine.html

[PS_RalphW]

It does seem unlikely to me that a non state actor would have access to the skills and technology for this attack to succeed undetected. If the US has any evidence they should publish it.

[BritDownUnder]

The battle for Bakhmut seems to be becoming increasingly Orwellian in its undertones. Neither side can tactically justify the losses they are suffering, but there are three forces at play.

I think that is how Verdun ended up.

They will not pass

Apparently an average of 50 shells fell per square metre.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/03/ ... se-norway/

The UK on Wednesday announced the opening of a military base in the far north of Norway to strengthen NATO’s capabilities in the Arctic amid concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The newly established Norwegian site, called Camp Viking, will serve as a hub for Royal Marines Commandos, said Britain’s Royal Navy.

It described the troops as “the tip of the Arctic spear” and “the unit the UK turns to when it needs troops able to fight in cold weather extremes.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia has downed a US surveillance drone over the Black Sea by flying a fighter in front of it and dumping fuel, presumably causing the drone sensors to be unsighted or its engine gunked up. It is unclear if the fighter collided with the drone.

[kenneal - lagger]

Presumably Russia would be more than annoyed if a NATO plane flew in front of a Russian one, dumped fuel and then turned on the afterburners.

[BritDownUnder]

I would be interested in the circumstances of the downing. Where the drone was and how close it got to Russian airspace? One can at least take comfort that the Russians indicated a weakness in these drones. Maybe the Americans can rig a nasty surprise in future drones.
I remember reading about a WW1 story from the Salonika Front whereby the British forces would raise a balloon to observe the Bulgarian/German trenches and a German biplane used to come along and shoot it down every now and then (the Allies not having any aircraft nearby). One time there was not a man in the balloon but a load of explosives and when the German aircraft flew nearby they were detonated and with the resulting shockwave the biplane crumpled up and fell to the ground killing the pilot. This brought boos from the British trenches as it was thought very unsporting.

Maybe if the drone was near to NATO airspace then an announcement could be made that any Russian aircraft coming within 10 miles of a drone will be shot down without warning. Perhaps drones could do this on their own in future.

I would not let this be a distraction from the main objective of this war which is to kill large numbers of Russians and provide the Ukrainians with the most cost effective means to do so.

[invalid]

I would not let this be a distraction from the main objective of this war which is to kill large numbers of Russians and provide the Ukrainians with the most cost effective means to do so.

I seem to see .

[PS_RalphW]

The US reports that the Russian got too close and collided with the (rear mounted) propeller, probably sustaining damage to nose or wing.

The fuel dumping and buzzing was to disrupt the intelligence gathering operation, which it is expected the US will share with Ukraine, and this is considered legal during wartime.

[clv101]

The fuel dumping and buzzing was to disrupt the intelligence gathering operation, which it is expected the US will share with Ukraine, and this is considered legal during wartime.

Exactly this. That drone, even in 'international waters' was directly contributing to the Ukrainian war effort. Just because it's dressed up in an American paint job and staying on its side of the line doesn't stop it being a legitimate target in my eyes. I've been saying for over a year that direct western aid to Ukraine makes 'us' a legitimate target, I'm pretty amazed Russia hasn't taken more action to at least disrupt the flow of aid into Ukraine (bomb road and rail links into Ukraine) or more significantly bomb equipment on route.

[UndercoverElephant]

I'm pretty amazed Russia hasn't taken more action to at least disrupt the flow of aid into Ukraine (bomb road and rail links into Ukraine) or more significantly bomb equipment on route.

I will be very surprised if Russia attacks on NATO territory. That would open the door to NATO retaliation inside Russia.

[PS_RalphW]

They did claim to have done just that in the first weeks of the war, but when they started losing too many aircraft and ships, they stopped the direct air attacks on infrastructute and focussed on not being totally destroyed on the front line. After that, they didn’t have enough long range accurate missiles to target the west half of Ukraine. More recently, they have put all available missiles into attacking the electric grid.

[kenneal - lagger]

The US reports that the Russian got too close and collided with the (rear mounted) propeller, probably sustaining damage to nose or wing.

The fuel dumping and buzzing was to disrupt the intelligence gathering operation, which it is expected the US will share with Ukraine, and this is considered legal during wartime.

The reports that I saw showing the radar tracking of the area showed the drone to be nearer the Turkish coast than Ukraine in the southern part of the Black Sea. The drone was flying an oval course.

My first reaction was that the Americans should put some sort of remotely controlled fragmentation device on the drone so that if a Russian aircraft got too close it could be exploded bringing down the Russian aircraft. The Americans could plausibly claim that the Russians had crashed into the drone causing the fuel to explode. That is on a par with the Russian claim that the drone flew into the Russian plane.

The Americans can afford to lose a drone more than the Russians can afford to lose an aircraft.

[PS_RalphW]

The Russians were playing their usual game of chicken expecting the drone to be as aware and agile as a human pilot and misjudged. They were lucky not to lose two pilots. The US lost a highly sensitive and fairly expensive bit of hardware, which the Russians claim they will salvage from very deep water. They also lost the intelligence the drone would have collected, and may have reduced capacity to collect more in the short term.

Russia looks to be in the final push into Bakhmut, it is becoming increasingly precarious for Ukraine to get their troops out.

Otherwise, the winter offensive is over. Russia wants to enlist 400,000 more regular soldiers this year. Good luck with that.

Ukrainian bloggers are raising the rhetoric on a coming counter offensive, which I think is premature, as we have no way of judging how many soldiers have been trained and held in reserve , or how much weapons and ammunition they have left. Also, it will be at least a month before the ground is hard enough.
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