Ukraine Watch...

[mr brightside]

The loss of russian lives does not worry me unduly. They started the war and must expect losses. I feel a bit sorry for unwilling conscripts but that is true of most wars.
Losses among the Ukrainian defenders and allies worry me more.

I value all life equally, or at least that's what i try to remember to do.

[PS_RalphW]

The last couple of days the pace of Russian attacks has slowed, with the small level of advances getting even smaller. Some analysts are suggesting that all the battle ready Russian forces are already engaged in the front lines with none in reserve, others say several battalions are gathering in the southern region for a surprise attack north. Too early to say which is nearer the truth.

If this is all that Russia has , then I think Ukraine must be in an excellent position for a successful counter attack in later spring. I suspect Putin is still not getting honest assessments of the status of his forces, and in fighting at the top level of the Russian state is sabotaging their own campaign.

[UndercoverElephant]

Andrei Zubov agrees with you.

https://charter97.org/en/news/2023/2/22/537331/

Andrei Zubov: Generals Will Have To Remove Putin 17

[Vortex2]

Vladimir Putin has said that Russian people may not survive in their current state as he claimed the West was trying to "disband" Russia.

The Russian president said the West wanted to divide up Russia and then control the world's biggest producer of raw materials, a step, he said, that could well lead to the destruction of many of the peoples of Russia including the ethnic Russian majority.

[PS_RalphW]

Putin says a lot of stuff that contradicts stuff he said only years or months previously. He has now suppressed almost all independent media in Russia and he can rewrite history for his own people at will. The rest of the world not so much.

Back in the physical world, Bakmhut looks to be finally in danger of being surrounded and most commentators are calling for Ukrainian forces to withdraw.

There appears to have been multiple explosions in Mariapol, reported to be long range artillery strikes on Russian logistics and staging posts using new longer range missiles. This is being taken by some observers as the first stage of a Ukrainian counter attack in the south, to split the Russian gains in two, and isolate Crimea. If the attack can reach the coast, the rebuilt Crimea bridge would be in range of the new long range artillery.

As always, time will tell.

[BritDownUnder]

I saw the Navalny documentary last night and was an absolute scream. Especially when they got the Chemist to own up about the operation.

As for breaking up Russia, as go all empires so Russia will go. The East to China, the South to the Muslims and the West possibly after some heavy casualties in the current war to become a civilized member of the European family which is what they have been trying to become for around 300 years. They were rather enthusiastic contributors to the break up of the British Empire so we should at least repay the favour.

Always best to focus on the South as that is where the good land is.

I hope the Ukrainians leave some nice surprises behind in Bakhmut. My Uncle said that when the Germans were retreating from Calais in 1944 they connected a lot of doorknobs of front doors on houses to the electricity supply as a parting gesture. Such nice people wouldn't you agree. He also recalled sitting in a room having a meal while the town was being cleared of Germans by a large open sash window when a German soldier reached in and tried to grab the food. The German got stabbed in the arm with a bayonet for his troubles and let out a loud scream, which my Uncle told me with a big smile while we were standing outside said window about 60 years later.

[Mark]

Putin's £274million spy plane 'is destroyed in drone attack near Minsk by pro-Ukraine Belarus group':
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... l#comments

If true, this attack sounds potentially helpful.....,

But it MAY have just given rationale for the Belarus government to become an active military participant in the conflict....
Militarily, logistically, strategically, does Ukraine have the capability to add an additional front to the war ??

[clv101]

Militarily, logistically, strategically, does Ukraine have the capability to add an additional front to the war ??

At this stage Ukraine are supplying little more than manpower - which they do have. Logistics, strategy, material etc are mostly coming in from the west.

[Vortex2]

by pro-Ukraine Belarus group':

.. flying in a NATO aircraft crewed by NATO staff all wearing freedom fighter uniforms.

I suppose that the US would believe a similar claim that one of their AWACS had been destroyed by the Donetsk Liberation Front.

[Vortex2]

At this stage Ukraine are supplying little more than manpower - which they do have.

No longer.

The average age of casualties in hospitals at the start of the war was in the 20s.
It's now in the 40s.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports of a counter attack against Russian positions to the. North of Bakmhut with the Russian salient nearly surrounded. Unfortunately the reports seem to originate with a known Ukrainian fantasist.

[BritDownUnder]

Putin's £274million spy plane 'is destroyed in drone attack near Minsk by pro-Ukraine Belarus group':
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... l#comments

If true, this attack sounds potentially helpful.....,

But it MAY have just given rationale for the Belarus government to become an active military participant in the conflict....
Militarily, logistically, strategically, does Ukraine have the capability to add an additional front to the war ??

Let's hope they destroy the other eight planes as well.

I look forward to other attacks on vital military and civilian infrastructure in Russia and Belarus that is used in destroying the same in Ukraine.

A very good example of an asymmetric attack.

[PS_RalphW]

Bakmhut is still being defended by Ukraine, although not much more than rubble can remain. The calculation must be that many more Russians than Ukrainians are dieing in that fight, and more importantly, Russia is wasting vast amounts of artillery shells.

The rest of the front has once again stalled, and with warm weather forecast for the next few weeks, Ukraine is once again a giant swamp which will prevent a spring offensive on either side much before May, which should give Ukraine enough time to get to grips with its new toys from its supporters.

A big factor will be who has the best drone arsenal, and the best jammers. We may see the introduction of truly autonomous drones who can select and attack targets without comms or GPS.

[UndercoverElephant]

We may see the introduction of truly autonomous drones who can select and attack targets without comms or GPS.

That is something out of a dystopian sci-fi story. I am having trouble believing it will work. Surely too easy to deceive such a thing into attacking a dummy target.

[kenneal - lagger]

............... We may see the introduction of truly autonomous drones who can select and attack targets without comms or GPS.

Even if they are fully autonomous and have AI "who" is a bit much isn't it? "Which" would be better.