Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

Reports that a Russian marine drone bomb damaged a key bridge on the road from Romania to Odesa.The bridge is the only direct link from Romania to the bulk of Ukraine, and would make donation of military aid from Romania difficult. Russia seems to be copying the Ukrainian marine drones used to attack Sevastopol. Mass attacks by these drones may be difficult to intercept, and cause significant damage to coastal bridges and ports.

Analysis of the Russian attack which ended with the loss of 30 armoured vehicles in one skirmish shows the Russian troops were woefully untrained and many simply abandoned their vehicles as soon as they got into trouble. Even Russian bloggers called out the terrible performance and this demonstrates that force of numbers alone cannot overcome a well trained defence in militarised warfare. The combination of skills and teamwork needed cannot be learnt quickly.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64616099

Russian soldiers are dying in greater numbers in Ukraine this month than at any time since the first week of the invasion, according to Ukrainian data.

The Ukrainian data shows 824 Russian soldiers dying per day in February.

The much heralded spring offensive has already started.

[PS_RalphW]

So far the spring offensive doesn’t seem to have gained a huge amount of territory. Ukraine has blown one bridge in Bhakmut, suggesting they are preparing to abandon the smaller east bank of the city, but they have pushed back the Russians who were shelling the southern supply road, so the West Bank still looks defendable. The Russians have made small advances further north, but the boggy ground and lack of cover will make bigger advances almost impossible at this time of year. Their advance around voledar was a turkey shoot.

I suspect Ukraine will hold back on their offensive until April, and the southern end of the front still looks the most obvious target.

[UndercoverElephant]

So far the spring offensive doesn’t seem to have gained a huge amount of territory. Ukraine has blown one bridge in Bhakmut, suggesting they are preparing to abandon the smaller east bank of the city, but they have pushed back the Russians who were shelling the southern supply road, so the West Bank still looks defendable. The Russians have made small advances further north, but the boggy ground and lack of cover will make bigger advances almost impossible at this time of year. Their advance around voledar was a turkey shoot.

Their glorious leader wanted to be able to make a big announcement of success on the anniversary of the original invasion. The Ukrainians will wait, soaking up the pressure and inflicting large losses for small territorial concessions, and then hit them in a counter-punch where they aren't expecting it.

[UndercoverElephant]

So Sunak has swung fully behind commitment to Ukraine, and promised that the UK will be the first to send long-range weapons: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64674431

Meanwhile, the rhetoric is cranking up everywhere. Russia has escalated by sending ?00,000 untrained conscripts to be slaughtered taking Ukrainian towns one street at a time, and NATO is now responding by significantly escalating military support for Ukraine. Russia has got nothing more in the tank after this. I am guessing this spring offensive will burn the Russian army out, with very little to show for it.

[BritDownUnder]

I sincerely hope the Russians don't give up after this latest big push. We have barely started to irreparably damage their male demographic.

Still more Western weapons to test on live targets too.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia does seem to be massing aircraft which it has previously avoided risking against Ukrainian air defences, and is looking to target those air defences with anti radar missiles. This does suggest they are very serious about this push and will provide significant air support. Wagner appears to be a spent force as their supply of cannon fodder has been cut off. Prisoner conscripts are estimated to have suffered 50% fatalities by the UK assessment, and higher by some Russian opposition numbers. This is a win win for the Russian state, they no longer have to feed or house all those undesirables, and they don’t have to pay them for their services, and they don’t have to worry about them being released onto the streets at the end of their 6 month service. The Russian army is said to be implementing forced conscription of prisoners instead, with no promise of freedom at the end of service.

Russia is make small advances in several areas along the front. There are reports that the supply of Ukrainian volunteers for military service are drying up as they are not too keen to endure months of shelling and attacks on the front lines before Ukraine will be ready for a significant counter offensive. Although Ukraine has conscription, until now it has been relatively easy to be exempted from it.

Putin has been shown on to supporting adoption of Ukrainian children into Russian and Chechen families, presumably from the regions that “voted” to become Russian territory. This is a war crime that can be prosecuted.

[Vortex2]

I sincerely hope the Russians don't give up after this latest big push. We have barely started to irreparably damage their male demographic.

Still more Western weapons to test on live targets too.

Please resume your medications.

[UndercoverElephant]

US is now claiming that China is considering intervening with military support for Russia. I have no idea whether this is true or not, but if it is then it threatens to turn this into WW3 (either nuclear or not). It sets up a potential scenario where Russia's spring offensive fails to gain any serious momentum, Ukraine starts retaking territory again later this year, and China intervenes in an attempt to save Russia from a comprehensive defeat on the battlefield. If that happens then the US will surely retaliate by changing its "constructive ambiguity" policy on Taiwan, and recognising Taiwan as an independent state, and the rest of the western alliance will follow suit.

If China makes this intervention in Ukraine then it implies (to me at least) that they are seriously considering an invasion of Taiwan, in the full knowledge that this will draw a full-blown military response from the US.

[BritDownUnder]

I sincerely hope the Russians don't give up after this latest big push. We have barely started to irreparably damage their male demographic.

Still more Western weapons to test on live targets too.

Please resume your medications.

Pathetic really, but from a Russian useful idiot rather unsurprising.
I'd like to see what medications Putin is on right now.

[Mark]

US is now claiming that China is considering intervening with military support for Russia. I have no idea whether this is true or not, but if it is then it threatens to turn this into WW3 (either nuclear or not). It sets up a potential scenario where Russia's spring offensive fails to gain any serious momentum, Ukraine starts retaking territory again later this year, and China intervenes in an attempt to save Russia from a comprehensive defeat on the battlefield. If that happens then the US will surely retaliate by changing its "constructive ambiguity" policy on Taiwan, and recognising Taiwan as an independent state, and the rest of the western alliance will follow suit.

If China makes this intervention in Ukraine then it implies (to me at least) that they are seriously considering an invasion of Taiwan, in the full knowledge that this will draw a full-blown military response from the US.

All that seems plausible..., but we have to hope that sense prevails...
That's the problem with wars - they have a nasty habit of developing in unexpected ways...

[Vortex2]

I sincerely hope the Russians don't give up after this latest big push. We have barely started to irreparably damage their male demographic.

Still more Western weapons to test on live targets too.

Please resume your medications.

Pathetic really, but from a Russian useful idiot rather unsurprising.
I'd like to see what medications Putin is on right now.

Safe in your save Antipodean fortress, you seem very keen for people to die.

I would prefer the opposite.

[kenneal - lagger]

Vortex, your thinking would simply delay the deaths to a later date when they would come in greater numbers. The current situation is directly analogous to the years before WW2 when Hitler was appeased when he was allowed to invade numerous countries with the result that a world war ensued. If Putin is appeased now he, or his successor, will come back for more at a later date and they may well be better prepared next time.

[adam2]

The loss of russian lives does not worry me unduly. They started the war and must expect losses. I feel a bit sorry for unwilling conscripts but that is true of most wars.
Losses among the Ukrainian defenders and allies worry me more.

[BritDownUnder]

I made a very deliberate move to come to Australia and thank the Lord every day. EV, PV and battery storage. Mortgage paid off. Life's been rather good so far. You make your own choices unless the Moscow Centre has a hold on you which they seem to given your rather mindless parroting of their propaganda.

Regarding the war. I think that Bomber Harris had the right words to describe the situation.
The Russians entered this war under the rather childish delusion that they were going to bomb, rape, murder, steal from, abduct, shell and shoot everyone else, and nobody was going to do the same back to them. In Ukraine, they put their rather naive theory into operation.

Anyway another 800 dead Russians today on average. 800 that will no longer kill, rape, kidnap and steal. What's not to like?
Obviously there will be Ukrainian losses and dead Ukrainian can no longer kill Russians.
The Russians can withdraw. If their leader wont withdraw then eventually he will be removed. Dead Russians stay dead and reduce their economic potential in the future and ability to do the same to Moldova, Poland, Estonia and several other places.