Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

Former Israeli PM Bennett Says US ‘Blocked’ His Attempts at a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

https://news.antiwar.com/2023/02/05/for ... eace-deal/

[adam2]

Fascinating article on the risk to Ukraine's electricity grid:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ ... an-attacks

Looking beyond this conflict, many of the points made apply more widely.

A most interesting report, thanks for the link.
Many good points WRT the limited manufacturing capacity for large high voltage grid transformers and the long lead times for supplying these.
I like the suggestion of a moratorium on the scrapping of transformers that could be re-used or re-manufactured.

Generating capacity may be less of problem, transportable generators of several MW are available.
Damaged overhead lines are relatively simple to renew, needs only manpower and materials. Suitable overhead line conductors are widely available in hard copper, all-aluminium, or steel cored aluminium.
Insulators can be manufactured in existing facilities that make other glass or ceramic items.

Cables for very high voltages are more problematic, and replacement with over head lines may be needed.
Cables for low nd medium voltages are commodity items widely available.
Small low voltage overhead lines used to supply homes etc are easy to bodge. Broken bottles can be used for insulators !

[PS_RalphW]

The uk mod assessment is that any early Russian offensive is unlikely to make major headway due to munitions shortages and l8mited mobility. Ukraine expects an attack in Luhansk, in the east, to recapture Lyman and area, which they lost in the Autumn. This would give an advantage to attack Donetsk from the north, which seems their primary objective these days.

Supply of leopard tanks is going slowly, so far one has been delivered, from Canada. New long range missiles seems to most useful new development, to disrupt Russian supply lines.

[clv101]

From this perspective, it makes me think twice about who blew the Nordstream pipelines. It seems to be just too tempting especially for the US to tweak the econ9mics in forcing Europe into the hands of Us lng exporters.

That the US (maybe with UK involvement) blew the pipeline is something of an open secret now. Maybe several decades until we get 'official' confirmation though.

This adds some meat to the bones:
How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how ... ord-stream

Many hundreds, more likely thousands of people know for certain who did it. Both NATO and Russian military and political types know for certain that either they, or the others did it. Basically all the relevant people already *know*. My fairly uninformed opinion is that the US blew the pipeline, so the interesting question to me is why Russia just seems to have let it go? Is Russia too afraid of escalation to overtly attack some US/NATO energy infrastructure in retaliation? I don't really get the "Maybe they want the capability to do the same things the U.S. did?" comment at the end.

I expect this will officially remain an uncertain and divisive issue for several decades until a retired old boy spills the beans or certain documents are declassified. Seeing as all the relevant people already know, it's odd that the public confirmation is important - but apparently it is.

[Vortex2]

the interesting question to me is why Russia just seems to have let it go?

Perhaps it suited their aims too.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports that the Russian spring offensive may have started in the north east section of the front as predicted, with multiple battalions reported as committed to the attack. Initial progress appears slow, the main tactic being to keep probing across a wide front to find weak spots. IThe troops are some of the better trained and equipped regular army batallions. On the southern front an attack appears to have been repulsed with 20 vehicles destroyed in just one location.

The Russian tactics are best described as human wave, hoping to drown the enemy in Russian blood.

[clv101]

My expectations are for the war to be more intense in 2023 than last year. The stakes are getting higher and Russia is very far from a spent force. Public accounts are that they are fielding a significantly larger force this spring, than last spring and from a stronger territorial position. Ukrainian infrastructure is already on its knees (see grid article above). I think the ramping up of pledged NATO assistance is due to assessments that the Ukrainian Armed Forces risk being overrun in the coming months. The war is anything but over. I fear, in hindsight, 2022 will turn out only to be the beginning.

[clv101]

Russia is draining a massive Ukrainian reservoir, endangering a nuclear plant
https://www.npr.org/2023/02/10/11557616 ... lear-plant

The result has been startling. Radar altimetry data shows the current level of the reservoir at 14 meters, approximately 2 meters below its normal height. Since December, the reservoir's water level has plummeted to its lowest level in 30 years of satellite observation.

[UndercoverElephant]

The war is anything but over. I fear, in hindsight, 2022 will turn out only to be the beginning.

It has always been threatening to turn into a 21st century version of WW1 - a hideous stalemate where neither side can finish off the other, and neither is prepared to back down or negotiate. NATO won't let Russia win, but that is a million miles away from forcing Russia to concede defeat.

[invalid]

The war is anything but over. I fear, in hindsight, 2022 will turn out only to be the beginning.

It has always been threatening to turn into a 21st century version of WW1 - a hideous stalemate where neither side can finish off the other, and neither is prepared to back down or negotiate. NATO won't let Russia win, but that is a million miles away from forcing Russia to concede defeat.

Wait... A couple of weeks ago you were saying that there would be a total Russian military collapse this year, do you not remember?

[UndercoverElephant]

The war is anything but over. I fear, in hindsight, 2022 will turn out only to be the beginning.

It has always been threatening to turn into a 21st century version of WW1 - a hideous stalemate where neither side can finish off the other, and neither is prepared to back down or negotiate. NATO won't let Russia win, but that is a million miles away from forcing Russia to concede defeat.

Wait... A couple of weeks ago you were saying that there would be a total Russian military collapse this year, do you not remember?

Russia is still going to lose this war. All this changes is the eventual death toll.

[UndercoverElephant]

It has always been threatening to turn into a 21st century version of WW1 - a hideous stalemate where neither side can finish off the other, and neither is prepared to back down or negotiate. NATO won't let Russia win, but that is a million miles away from forcing Russia to concede defeat.

Wait... A couple of weeks ago you were saying that there would be a total Russian military collapse this year, do you not remember?

Russia is still going to lose this war. All this changes is the eventual death toll.

If it starts to look like Russia might benefit long-term from starting this war, NATO will send fighter jets. Whatever it takes, Russia will not be permitted to win.

[clv101]

I think it's going to much harder to be black and white about eventual winners and losers.

[Vortex2]

Whatever it takes, Russia will not be permitted to win.

More importantly, it won't be permitted to keep control of its natural resources.
They will be grabbed by the West as 'reparations'.

[invalid]

If NATO plus Ukraine end up threatening major damage to the Russian nation, then we could soon see a nuclear exchange.

Russia has damaged itself by starting a war it cannot win. The nuclear threat is a bluff. Russia would be anihilated. Ukraine will win this war, this year, including the retaking of Crimea. Then Russia will be kicked out of the UN security council. The real winner here though is China.