Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

Off topic for a moment:

His concerns about dropping birth rates are probably more socially connected than vaccine related.

e.g. Sexual behaviour reducing due to lockdowns etc and lack of social contact leading to relationships.

This pre-vaccination article suggests recent changes in sexual activity:
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... frequently

It's a bit too easy to blame COVID and/or the vaccinations for everything.

[clv101]

I know lots a couples in the 30s without children and don't believe fertility is the reason for any of them. Unstable housing and employment (or simply too demanding/rewarding employment especially for potential mother), the high cost of childcare, caring for elderly parents are probably the key reasons. This isn't a new thing these trends are well established as well as the correlation with the economic outlook.

[Catweazle]

Let's not forget the increasing acceptance of same-sex couples.

[BritDownUnder]

Let's not forget the increasing acceptance of same-sex couples.

Adoption?

I agree with the clv explanation. When I was in the UK I only claimed unemployment benefit once and they tried every trick in the book to stop me from claiming, such as asking how long I had worked - when I said 3 years they said you could only claim after working for 4 years - and many other excuses. In the end I had to make a note of everything they said and had to threaten to write to the MP to prove my right to claim it. It seems like the middle classes are particularly hard done by being taxed relatively heavily and the system makes it hard for them to claim any benefits available. The existing long-term benefits claimants seem to be able to claim without problems. The cost of housing is also an issue but I think too low interest rates have not helped. Any effort to build 'Social Housing' will just result in this being mopped up by benefits claimants. They probably need to look at making the old age pension means tested and make personal pensions tax exempt as a result like in Australia.

Gotta keep the cash cows paying taxes I suppose but the consequences are a decline in fertility of working, productive people. In Australia after having children I think I went from being a net tax payer to a net benefit recipient quite comfortably and easily.

[Catweazle]

Yes, surrogate mother's fill a gap, but there used to be a culture of denial that resulted in gay men marrying women and having children , and vice versa. Not so much now.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64492938

Ukraine's defence minister has said Russia is preparing a major new offensive, and warned that it could begin as soon as 24 February.

Oleksii Reznikov said Moscow had amassed thousands of troops and could "try something" to mark the anniversary of the initial invasion last year.

The attack would also mark Russia's Defender of the Fatherland Day on 23 February, which celebrates the army.

Mr Reznikov said Moscow had mobilised some 500,000 troops for the offensive.

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a general mobilisation of some 300,000 conscripted troops, which he said was necessary to ensure the country's "territorial integrity".

But Mr Reznikov suggested that the true figure recruited and deployed to Ukraine could be far higher.

"Officially they announced 300,000 but when we see the troops at the borders, according to our assessments it is much more," he told the French BFM network. The BBC cannot independently verify this figure.

So there's going to be a bloodbath in the spring. Russia will attempt to overwhelm the Ukrainians with sheer manpower, just as they did to the Germans in WW2. The idea being that the Ukrainians will run out of ammunition before the Russians run out of cannon fodder.

It won't work. NATO will make sure it doesn't. NATO cannot back down at this point.

[PS_RalphW]

The US is reported to be supplying longer range missiles to fire from HIMARS. This will make targets in Crimea in range.

[clv101]

How come we're not really hearing loads about the buildup in western media? A year ago the US was providing detailed info and predicting Putin's every move.

[clv101]

Some suggest there are over 300k Russians in occupied Ukraine now, twice the original invasion force. If that's close to accurate the idea the Ukraine with the few dozen western tanks are going to be launching any spring counter offensive is for the birds. Maybe the western heavy equipments isn't heading to the East, but will be used in the defence of the West of the country?

[invalid]

Certainly no signs of any Russian military collapse!

[kenneal - lagger]

The Ukrainians will be receiving more than a few dozen tanks, more like over a hundred initially with a steady stream coming after that. That will be more than enough to undertake an offensive together with the infantry fighting vehicles being supplied. They are also now fighting against more 1960s Russian tanks.

The Ukrainians are undertaking fighting withdrawals in some places, exacting very high losses on the Russians, while they are conserving their own troops and building up trained reserves. They are trading very small amounts of territory for time to integrate the new weaponry. The current rate of advance of the Russian troops would take about ten years to get to Kyiv and as much again to get to Lviv. And with the attrition rate the Ukrainians are exacting the Russians would need several mobilisations before they get to Kyiv.

[PS_RalphW]

The overall situation in Ukraine is more uncertain. Russia is expending what it has most of, and values least: human lives,. However, they are grinding down the Ukrainian defences and we do not know how long their numbers and morale can hold, or how many conscripts they have been training for a spring offensive, or how effectively.

The Wagner convict army seems to have been largely expended with little to show for it, but the true level of Russian mobilisation is unknown, and Russia has had a year to bring its tanks out of storage and to some extent modernise them. They do seem to have learned from their earlier mistakes to some extent.

I do not think Russia wants to take all of Ukraine at this stage. They just want to gain the initiative and force Ukraine to a ceasefire where Russia defacto annexes the ground they have already captured, and claim victory at home.

Russian military is notoriously corrupt, but recent reports shows extensive corruption in wartime Ukraine as well.
Expect surprises, not all of them pleasant, in the next couple of months.

[Vortex2]

recent reports shows extensive corruption in wartime Ukraine as well.

.. and most corrupt country in Europe before the war ...

[BritDownUnder]

recent reports shows extensive corruption in wartime Ukraine as well.

.. and most corrupt country in Europe before the war ...

... Moldova says. Hold my beer.

[clv101]

Fascinating article on the risk to Ukraine's electricity grid:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ ... an-attacks

Looking beyond this conflict, many of the points made apply more widely.