Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Forum for general discussion of Peak Oil / Oil depletion; also covering related subjects

Moderator: Peak Moderation

johnny
Posts: 324
Joined: 15 Aug 2017, 16:07

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by johnny »

UndercoverElephant wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 08:36 That is a string of words, not an answer. I am asking about the future of the human race.
You are allowed to pretend to be as dull as you'd like, but the future of the human race is no different than that of our Sun. We die across all 3 of the near term, mid term and long term scenarios I've previously mentioned. Even a Dyson Sphere is nothing but a delay, just as is your "we don't die tomorrow" scenario.

A philosopher lacking in perspective is somewhat of a surprise, which is I why I mentioned we needed one earlier. I am disappointed, I'm not a trained philosopher but even a little understanding of physics and engineering and geology seems to come with a range of perspective beyond the philosphers. I find that disconcerting.
User avatar
UndercoverElephant
Posts: 13497
Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
Location: UK

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by UndercoverElephant »

johnny wrote: 28 Jan 2023, 05:21
UndercoverElephant wrote: 26 Jan 2023, 08:36 That is a string of words, not an answer. I am asking about the future of the human race.
You are allowed to pretend to be as dull as you'd like, but the future of the human race is no different than that of our Sun.
OK. I am not going to continue this discussion. If you truly believe that the future of the human race is no different to the future of the Sun, then you are a first class idiot. If, as I suspect, you do not truly believe this, then what you are doing is trying to draw an emotional reaction. Either way, there is no point in engaging with you.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
User avatar
clv101
Site Admin
Posts: 10551
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Contact:

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by clv101 »

RGR's a troll, always had been always will be. Don't feed the troll.
User avatar
UndercoverElephant
Posts: 13497
Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
Location: UK

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by UndercoverElephant »

clv101 wrote: 28 Jan 2023, 11:01 RGR's a troll, always had been always will be. Don't feed the troll.
Jonny is the latest incarnation of RGR? If I had known that, I wouldn't have been talking to him in the first place.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
dustiswhatweare
Posts: 180
Joined: 24 Jan 2021, 13:57
Location: SW England

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by dustiswhatweare »

I don't think that is RGR, the language used doesn't match - too stilted and not smug enough.

Regarding the original post, good old Prof. Kipping has recently covered the subject. It is a big question. He first looks back, then extrapolates. He postulates that humans will survive and does factor in evolution given the time scales involved. He also points out that even if we don't, we are not the only form of intelligence on the planet, and again, evolution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I08UUBV ... CoolWorlds
User avatar
clv101
Site Admin
Posts: 10551
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Contact:

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by clv101 »

dustiswhatweare wrote: 28 Jan 2023, 15:58 I don't think that is RGR, the language used doesn't match - too stilted and not smug enough.
Sorry, I thought everyone knew.
User avatar
UndercoverElephant
Posts: 13497
Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
Location: UK

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by UndercoverElephant »

dustiswhatweare wrote: 28 Jan 2023, 15:58
Regarding the original post, good old Prof. Kipping has recently covered the subject. It is a big question. He first looks back, then extrapolates. He postulates that humans will survive and does factor in evolution given the time scales involved. He also points out that even if we don't, we are not the only form of intelligence on the planet, and again, evolution.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I08UUBV ... CoolWorlds
I agreed with everything up to 8:25, at which point he brought up the possibility of speciation in humans over the long term future - that Homo sapiens might give rise to multiple descendent species. It's obviously true, but had never occurred to me before because I'd ruled out future unknowables such as (for example) a species descended from humans figuring out how to colonise space 100 million years from now. Although he thinks this could happen within the Earth's ecosystem, which implies all sorts of scary things.

At 10:23 he says that future intelligent species might have trouble detecting any trace of us, if it was longer than 3 million years in the future. This cannot possibly be true. I think we're already up there with the K-T extinction in terms of evolutionary impact, whether we survive or not.

11:23 emphasis on "alone". He thinks we're alone. I agree with him.

First class. Thanks for posting.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 29 Jan 2023, 00:47, edited 1 time in total.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
User avatar
clv101
Site Admin
Posts: 10551
Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
Contact:

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by clv101 »

Regarding future aliens detecting us. If there had been a 19th C. tech civilization (pre space flight, pre nuclear etc) on Venus, which went extinct just a few thousand years ago - we likely won't know about it (yet).

In terms of us leaving a legacy for long term future discovery the moon is our best bet. We have the technology today to build 'time capsules' on the moon with expected lifetimes well into the millions of years. Could even leave signage visible form Earth, perhaps a series of 'clues' in declining order of scale. The first hint seen with naken eye, leads to a clue needing a basic telescope, etc - tempt/reward technical innovation.

Some of our space junk will hang around for approximately 'ever'.
User avatar
Vortex2
Posts: 2692
Joined: 13 Jan 2019, 10:29
Location: In a Midlands field

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by Vortex2 »

clv101 wrote: 28 Jan 2023, 11:01 RGR's a troll, always had been always will be. Don't feed the troll.
Yep .. but unusually he is a bright, well-educated troll in a fairly prominent role in the oil industry.
johnny
Posts: 324
Joined: 15 Aug 2017, 16:07

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by johnny »

Vortex2 wrote: 29 Jan 2023, 08:47
clv101 wrote: 28 Jan 2023, 11:01 RGR's a troll, always had been always will be. Don't feed the troll.
Yep .. but unusually he is a bright, well-educated troll in a fairly prominent role in the oil industry.
"Troll" is the term used to dismiss ideas, concepts and posters on the internet without having to think about them Vortex, we all know that. Unfortunately folks just out to make trouble give a well informed dissenting opinion a bad name.

When someone publishes new or different ideas in the scientific comunity, which draw some level of derision in that community, they aren't called trolls. Someone else writes a paper detailing why they are wrong, and let it go at that.

On the internet? Scientific evidence, expertise, etc etc is easily dismissed outright when it contradicts a closely held opinion. It works in support of an opinion of course, but not when it is contrary. That has always been strange to me, but as a rule has remained consistent in both of the centuries where I've been paying attention to it. Peak oil claims in the modern era (1990 onward) are an excellent example of this dynmaic playing out. A fascinating learning dynamic, and knowing both sides of the coin has been quite helpful, professionally speaking.

Now that the specifics of peak oil dependencies, timing, volumes, composition etc etc has been worked out, there are more pertinent topics to work on, and amusingly (but not unexpectedly) these topics are mostly ignored at this point in time, on the science side. You can find them percolating on the internet though. Like I said, a fascinating dynamic. The internet has these kernels of ideas, they can hit on a valid underlying point, but just don't have the resources or experience to leverage the actual answer out.
User avatar
Vortex2
Posts: 2692
Joined: 13 Jan 2019, 10:29
Location: In a Midlands field

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by Vortex2 »

On the internet? Scientific evidence, expertise, etc etc is easily dismissed outright when it contradicts a closely held opinion. It works in support of an opinion of course, but not when it is contrary.
Very true.

Elsewhere I have been discussing the recent AI advances & possible futures .. and the amount of denial and resistance from those who should know better is astonishing.
dustiswhatweare
Posts: 180
Joined: 24 Jan 2021, 13:57
Location: SW England

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by dustiswhatweare »

dustiswhatweare wrote: 30 Jan 2023, 11:38 11:23 emphasis on "alone". He thinks we're alone. I agree with him.

First class. Thanks for posting.
This is Dave's reasoning for leaning to the 'we are alone' view.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqEmYU8 ... CoolWorlds
[/quote]
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin
Posts: 14290
Joined: 20 Sep 2006, 02:35
Location: Newbury, Berkshire
Contact:

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by kenneal - lagger »

We will be detected in the stratigraphic record by a thin line of carbon and plastic which will last of aeons. There will also probably be a large number of agglomerations of cement breakdown and iron anomalies from the remains of reinforced concrete buildings from our cities. We have moved material around to such an extent that someone similar to us in the future is bound to notice.
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
User avatar
Vortex2
Posts: 2692
Joined: 13 Jan 2019, 10:29
Location: In a Midlands field

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by Vortex2 »

Perhaps humans are not intended to survive?

Perhaps an AI legacy is our destiny ... Homo Superior?
dustiswhatweare
Posts: 180
Joined: 24 Jan 2021, 13:57
Location: SW England

Re: Zooming out - will humans go extinct or what?

Post by dustiswhatweare »

Vortex2 wrote: 30 Jan 2023, 17:00 Perhaps humans are not intended to survive?

Perhaps an AI legacy is our destiny ... Homo Superior?
Let's hope Microsoft have nothing to do with it then, it won't be Homo Superior, it'll be Homo 404.
Post Reply