Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

Ukraine needs a defensible border around a population that wants to be Ukrainian, not every square inch of the Donbas.

That's rational and could make sense to both Kiev and Moscow - the problem with such a 'conclusion' might lie in Washington or London though!

[kenneal - lagger]

The Challenger and the Abrams are both much heavier than the Leopard and will only be suitable to use once the ground is either frozen solid, and that looks unlikely this winter due to global warming, or until it has well and truly dried out in early summer. The Challenger was only offered to get the Germans moving on approving the Leopard's use.

One of the YouTube channels I watch for news on the war is the Denys Davydov channel. He was an airline pilot from Sevastopol before Ukrainian airlines were shut down.
Another is Ukrainian News TV. This sounds as if it is run by an Australian but his sources seem to be accurate.
Then there is Reporting from Ukraine run by a Ukrainian.
And finally Ukraine Matters. Georgie is in dispute with YT at the moment over where the advertising revenue goes. He wants it for Ukraine armed forces while YT wants if for themselves. I think Georgie might be Polish but his sources seem to be accurate. All the others post daily but Georgie doesn't.
The main information source is the official map posted by the Ukraine armed forces but they all have supplementary sources such as Intelligence releases and private contacts. All of them question the official release to an extent.

[kenneal - lagger]

Most of the Russian speaking population was thought to be pro Russian before the invasion but since then much of the population has actively fought against the Russian invader. How much of the occupied Donbas population is really pro Russian we won't find out until they get a chance to vote after being released from Russian rule.

[clv101]

Leopard is pretty much exactly the same weight as Challenger. They are very similar in most respects. The Abrams is the wildcard with it's gas turbine engine - I'm surprised the US are sending them, and expect it to be many months before there are trained crew and logistics in palce to get them to the front line.

[adam2]

A truck full of aid for Ukraine has been sent from near here and should arrive in the next couple of days.
Flat packed wheelchairs, to reduce shipping space needed.
Carrying chairs, mainly used in the UK for evacuating people by stairs. Useful for lifting injured persons onto trains or buses.
A couple of "mountain rescue stretchers" AFAIK these are stretchers with a single large wheel to take most of the weight, whilst at least four stretcher bearers steady the machine. Not certain why these are needed.
Sheets, blankets, hospital gowns, white coats.

A future shipment will be an ex military land rover fitted with a large 3 phase generator, useful to power medical facilities. This will be driven under its own power.

[adam2]

Leopard is pretty much exactly the same weight as Challenger. They are very similar in most respects. The Abrams is the wildcard with it's gas turbine engine - I'm surprised the US are sending them, and expect it to be many months before there are trained crew and logistics in palce to get them to the front line.

The Abrams tanks might be crewed by Americans. NOT American troops on the ground, but civilian volunteers with recent relevant experience.

[clv101]

That would be hilarious if true! Americans, just not actually in the army, honest, driving American tanks on the battlefield. It would be a mirror image of Russia's little green men.

Here's a thought, for which I have no evidence. What if this sudden change of heart, the rapid deployment of main battle tanks and increase in support is because the Ukrainian army are at the point of collapse? Do any of us really know what the casualty numbers are like? This new aid is being described as the last push to defeat the shambolic Russian army ensuring a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield. Could it be that without this aid a renewed Russian offensive in the spring will face relatively little opposition, the Ukrainian army now all but vanquished? I've no idea, just trying to think outside the public information sources we're fed.

[adam2]

I am aware of two Americans who would consider driving Abrams tanks for Ukraine, one is ex military, the other worked for the builders of the tanks and is very familiar with operation and maintenance.
A special grade of lubricant is essential for reliable operation.
Fuel is less critical, the gas turbines are designed to run on any common fuel including diesel, heating oil, or jet fuel. Dirty fuel is acceptable as elaborate filters are fitted.

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine reports 47 out of 55 Russian missiles shot down. Some reports of 20+ Iranian drones all intercepted, which if true would be a major success against Russian attempts to cripple Ukrainian electricity infrastructure.

Reports that Bakhmut is becoming less viable as the last supply road is in danger of coming under direct Russian fire lines.

I think it is impossible to know what the state of Ukrainian Casualties is, but my gut feeling is that Ukraine is training large numbers of reservists and conscripts in safe areas using donated weapons. A major offensive will be delayed until the troops have the support of heavy armour, when a second attempt at a rapid break through similar to Kharkiv will be tried in the south.

An unconfirmed report from Russian opposition group says only 10k out if 50k Wagner convict recruits are still active on the front line, with 80% dead, wounded, escaped or captured. Treat such numbers with caution.

[adam2]

I have reliable information that large numbers of Ukrainian civilians have received basic military training, and that there are several ranks or grades awarded according to the degree of training.
Small arms are plentiful, including many captured from the invaders. Ammunition for these weapons is in very short supply.

WW2 type revolvers are favoured for the less experienced, as these are simple to use. and easy to carry concealed. Issued to housewives and older children. Those with more training have modern assault rifles. Shotguns are used in some areas, especially by those already familiar with guns for game shooting.

A number of russian vehicles have succumbed to improvised mines, detonated electrically from a safe distance.

Some captured or abandoned tanks that no longer run have been repurposed as static artillery.

[PS_RalphW]

The wests strategy in Ukraine continues to be to provide just enough support to keep Russia on the back foot. This war has been dramatically econ9mical in destroying the Russian military threat, apart from human lives lost and damage to a Ukraine. The west does not want a rapid defeat of the Russian army, as this would likely be the end of Putin, and maybe see the Russian federation collapse into many factions and rogue actors getting control of nuclear weapons. There is no fear in the west that Putin would resort to those weapons.

All through this war Russia is still pumping ng to the west through the Ukrainian pipelines, and Ukraine is being paid for the transit. Russia also previously pumped large quantities of ammonia through Ukraine to Odessa, where it was exported by ship. That stopped with this war and gives added motive to Russian attempts to invade Odessa earlier in the war, and explains why the port has not been bombed. The ng pipelines are currently running at about half capacity, and reportedly Putin wants Ukraine to reopen the ammonia pipeline, but Ukraine wants all war prisoners released first.

Putin is happy to keep seeing large numbers of Russian dead, as he has three times the population of Ukraine, and will win a war of attrition if allowed to. This war will end when it is most econ9mically advantageous to the west, particularly the us, for this to happen. At that point, weapon supplies will be squeezed and Ukraine will be forced to make a peace deal with Putin, as the west does not want to see Putin kicked out or killed.

From this perspective, it makes me think twice about who blew the Nordstream pipelines. It seems to be just too tempting especially for the US to tweak the econ9mics in forcing Europe into the hands of Us lng exporters.

[UndercoverElephant]

That would be hilarious if true! Americans, just not actually in the army, honest, driving American tanks on the battlefield. It would be a mirror image of Russia's little green men.

Here's a thought, for which I have no evidence. What if this sudden change of heart, the rapid deployment of main battle tanks and increase in support is because the Ukrainian army are at the point of collapse? Do any of us really know what the casualty numbers are like? This new aid is being described as the last push to defeat the shambolic Russian army ensuring a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield. Could it be that without this aid a renewed Russian offensive in the spring will face relatively little opposition, the Ukrainian army now all but vanquished? I've no idea, just trying to think outside the public information sources we're fed.

That theory doesn't ring true for me. I think Russia would be making more progress on the battlefield if it was. It is the middle of winter, and the Russians still have major logistical problems even holding on to the territory they currently have.

[clv101]

From this perspective, it makes me think twice about who blew the Nordstream pipelines. It seems to be just too tempting especially for the US to tweak the econ9mics in forcing Europe into the hands of Us lng exporters.

That the US (maybe with UK involvement) blew the pipeline is something of an open secret now. Maybe several decades until we get 'official' confirmation though.

[Vortex2]

I now think that the aim is to destroy/control Russia, in order to demilitarise them and to seize their natural resources.

Reparations will be demanded, and American corporations will "adminster" the oil, gas and other resources.

Shades of the reparations demanded of Germany by France after WW1.
Germany was left with ONE rail locomotive.

[clv101]

I now think that the aim is to destroy/control Russia, in order to demilitarise them and to seize their natural resources.

Indeed, but there are enough Russians with clear memories of the 1990's not to allow that plan to succeed. Remember, Russia holds all the bio-physical-resource cards, and they are likely far more valuable in future decades than western fiat currencies and tech-driven service economies.