Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

If NATO plus Ukraine end up threatening major damage to the Russian nation, then we could soon see a nuclear exchange.

Russia has damaged itself by starting a war it cannot win. The nuclear threat is a bluff. Russia would be anihilated. Ukraine will win this war, this year, including the retaking of Crimea. Then Russia will be kicked out of the UN security council. The real winner here though is China.

[adam2]

Does anyone know what exactly is meant by "an automatic grenade throwing machine" ?
Apparently the Ukrainian forces have several of these, supplied by the UK. Not certain if supplied by the MOD or directly by a military supplier.

Said to be very effective.

[clv101]

There are three or four daily posters on YouTube who seem to be accurate in their reporting and have good sources of news who I consider worth listening to.

Please share.

[Vortex2]

Does anyone know what exactly is meant by "an automatic grenade throwing machine" ?

Probably this.



https://www.eliteukforces.info/weapons/GMG/

[adam2]

Thanks for the above post, yes that looks like the weapon being referred to. Said to be particularly effective when enemy are known to be hiding in wooded areas.

[PS_RalphW]

Poland formally asks Germany permission to give Ukraine tanks, and asks the EU to pay for them. It seems clear that it isthe German chancellor who has been hold out against giving permission, against the majority of his own party leadership. More rumours of the us sending tanks as well, but this topic has been nothing but rumours for weeks.

[Vortex2]

Thanks for the above post, yes that looks like the weapon being referred to. Said to be particularly effective when enemy are known to be hiding in wooded areas.

I vaguely remember that these were invented by the Russians to drop grenades in Afghanistan BEHIND boulders where snipers were operating.

[PS_RalphW]

Germany to send tanks and let other countries send German made tanks

[BritDownUnder]

Poland formally asks Germany permission to give Ukraine tanks, and asks the EU to pay for them. It seems clear that it isthe German chancellor who has been hold out against giving permission, against the majority of his own party leadership. More rumours of the us sending tanks as well, but this topic has been nothing but rumours for weeks.

I thought the Americans were off sending their tanks because they are gas turbine powered and use too much fuel... or something similar.

I like the way the "EU" is supposed to pay for them. I wonder if the UK is getting roped into paying for Germin manufactured goods yet again. Next they'll be sending French cheese and wine and getting the EU to pay for it. And then there is the Ukraine repair bill once the war is over.

On the up side my Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems shares are doing rather well - along with all the utilities ones. Shame about the Burberry ones. No-one seems to want to buy checked stuff anymore.

[clv101]

It' seems we're only a couple of months away from Ukraine genuinely having a reasonable amount of heavy equipment such that we could win this on the battlefield in the spring. If past performance is anything to go by, they will be able to be very effective use of this kit and it would appear that the conventional Russian armed forces will have nothing to effectively counter with in the Spring. We're back to thinking about endgames. Will Russia maintain *any* of the captured territory, Crimea? What becomes of Sevastopol Naval Base and the Black Sea fleet?

It seems impossible for Putin to survive a total defeat so what becomes of Russia?

There's also the small matter of the prior civil war, once the Russia's are officially ejected - the locals in the East are hardly likely to fall in behind the Zelenskyy/pro-west administration.

[clv101]

Poland formally asks Germany permission to give Ukraine tanks, and asks the EU to pay for them. It seems clear that it isthe German chancellor who has been hold out against giving permission, against the majority of his own party leadership. More rumours of the us sending tanks as well, but this topic has been nothing but rumours for weeks.

I thought the Americans were off sending their tanks because they are gas turbine powered and use too much fuel... or something similar.

There are a lot of reasons why the M1 Abrams would be a bad idea in Ukraine. It's just too big, too heavy, too complex, lack of supply chains, local knowledge... The Ex-Soviet stuff is the easiest stuff to utilise and the Leopard the next easiest. Even the British Challengers are going to be really difficult for the Ukrainians to fully integrate.

I like the way the "EU" is supposed to pay for them. I wonder if the UK is getting roped into paying for Germin manufactured goods yet again. Next they'll be sending French cheese and wine and getting the EU to pay for it. And then there is the Ukraine repair bill once the war is over.

Doubt the UK would be on the hook for any such payments, even if there was some prior agreement I expect the UK could argue it had already exceeded any required support via independent contributions in lieu of payments.

[PS_RalphW]

I think the US will send a few Abrahams to placate Schmitz. He didn’t want to be seen as the political figure who provoked Putin’s retaliation, however that turns out. He can now say that Biden was equally to blame. I doubt the Abrahams will ever see active service, but 100 leopards could put a big dent in the Russian front line, when combined with the other forces being donated and trained. I doubt that a full frontal invasion of Chrimea will happen this year, it’s too easily defended.

[clv101]

Here's a little video from 6 years ago about Leopard 2 and Challenger 2. Interesting snippet at the end about the new Russian tank - that hasn't turned up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVSgoGCjuMU

[BritDownUnder]

Here's a little video from 6 years ago about Leopard 2 and Challenger 2. Interesting snippet at the end about the new Russian tank - that hasn't turned up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVSgoGCjuMU

Some good discussions following that video. I think buying a German-made Leopard 2 or successor would be an easy choice for the UK but very little wealth will then flow to the UK as a result. I have heard that the US will actually make a profit on the Ukraine war due to arms and oil/gas sales. Arms sold to countries that then are 'donated' to Ukraine and replacements bought from the US. Not sure on the merits of smooth versus rifled bore guns. Perhaps smoothbore can fire missiles as well and maybe guided shells.

I think there needs to be a bit of thought in the UK about what happens after Ukraine is all over. Probably the UK will be out of pocket by a long way. The best they can expect is to use it as a testing ground for weapons. Ukraine needs to get over the expected Russian Spring 2023 offensive first. Taking Crimea will be risky but Ukraine probably needs to take the South as there is a lot of good farmland there. Perhaps Crimea is better left as a harbour to store sunken Russian ships, maybe Russian pride too.

Any thoughts on other territorial changes at the end of the war? Swap Kaliningrad oblast for de jure Russian control of Crimea. Japan gets the Northern Kuriles back. Could be an interesting peace. Germans might like "OstPreussen" back.

[UndercoverElephant]

Will Russia maintain *any* of the captured territory, Crimea?

It seems highly unlikely at this point. Clearly after months of indecision, the entire NATO alliance is now committed to making sure Russia is comprehensively defeated, and that has to include the whole of Crimea. I guess it might not include all of the Donbas region which has already been under Russian control for several years, because that area is less strategically relevant and the population is pro-Russian.

It seems impossible for Putin to survive a total defeat so what becomes of Russia?

Not even the Russians know the answer to that.

There's also the small matter of the prior civil war, once the Russia's are officially ejected - the locals in the East are hardly likely to fall in behind the Zelenskyy/pro-west administration.

Which is why Ukraine might decide some of that territory is not worth the trouble, rather like the UK did when it signed up to the Good Friday Agreement. Ukraine needs a defensible border around a population that wants to be Ukrainian, not every square inch of the Donbas.