Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

Whatever happened before the invasion Russia violently invaded a neighbouring, peaceful, sovereign country. There was no military action against Russia nor a military build up to provoke this action. Putin and his mental insecurities are solely to blame for this action.

The only blame that can be placed upon "armchair liberals in the West" is that they didn't stand up to the murderous maniac Putin earlier.

That's a rather binary view. I'm not sure Real Life works that way.

[BritDownUnder]

Sometimes does.
There are often "Goodies versus Baddies" wars such as the Western front of WW2. There are even "Baddies versus Baddies" wars such as Syrian Civil War, that a former member of this forum got very upset about, or the Iran/Iraq war.

If Ukraine is such a badass as you think then I would be happy for the West to pour in weapons to the underdog in a Baddy versus Baddy contest just to kill a lot of them off and stop them invading anyone else. There are a lot of reasons to help Ukraine and not many reasons not to.

If Russia is sending convicts to the front to be pulverised by very expensive NATO weaponry then that in itself is good from a Darwinian perspective as convicts are a greater chance of being psychopaths and we are doing Russian society a service as long as the convicts are relatively young and a prevented from procreating by their early demise.

[BritDownUnder]

I like this Quora post about Russians invading Finland since we have a lot of Russian visitors to this site these days.

Link here.

Why hasn't Russia invaded Finland?
I presume they mean since the last time it was tried in 1939-40.

The last time Russia (actually the Soviet Union) invaded an unprepared Finland (1939) the USSR technically won that three month long war, but it paid a huge price.

The Finns mustered a force of about 340,000 soldiers and suffered 25,904 dead or missing (8%), 43,557 wounded, 800–1,100 captured. 20–30 tanks and 62 aircraft lost.

The Soviets mustered a force of between 425,000 and 725,000 soldiers and suffered 126,875–167,976 dead or missing (≈29%), 188,671–207,538 wounded, sick, or frostbitten, 5,572 captured, 1,200–3,543 tanks and 261–515 aircraft destroyed.

Caught unawares in 1939, Finns were none-the-less well prepared for the 40 degree below zero temperatures. They were accomplished cross-country skiers, they had herds of domesticated reindeer trained to pull sleighs, they wore white capes that made them largely invisible in the snow.

And the Finns were ruthless. After battles they would go out onto the battle zone and collect the bodies of the dead Soviet soldiers. They would then pose them in bizarre and even terrifying positions and allow them to freeze. In the morning the Soviet troops would wake up to find their own comrades frozen and propped up surrounding and sometime even in their camps.

Of course Finland did lose about 10% of its territory to the Soviet Union so it was certainly not a Finnish victory.



I think there were cases of the Gurkhas on the Italian front creeping into tents and killing every second sleeping German while leaving the others untouched to send a bit of a message.

[PS_RalphW]

It is interesting to compare this thread to the one on the arctic ice blog, where the pro Russian view is held by about 3/4 of the posters, mostly from up the mindset that the US is evil, so all war and bad things are the fault of the evil empire and it’s minions. Not that the posters realise their own psychology.

[Vortex2]

the Gurkhas

In the Falklands War, the Argentines were terrified to find that the anti-personnel mines in front of the trenches didn't work.

The Gurkhas kept coming despite their mates blowing up beside them.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia admits 63 conscripts killed when a large barracks was hit. Ukraine claims 400 dead. Reports that the barracks had an ammunition dump in the basement, leading to the conscripts sleeping on top of a large bomb, well within range of artillery fire.

[kenneal - lagger]

If the Russians are admitting to 63 the number must be much, much higher. The Ukrainians are probably nearer. The attack was just past midnight so there might have been quite a few Russian troops out celebrating the new year who will likely go AWOL if they are thought to be dead rather than go to the front line. Russian deserters are getting more numerous according to reports.

The photos of the scene show a large pile of rubble rather than a building which has blown outwards in a very large explosion.

[BritDownUnder]

If the Russians are admitting to 63 the number must be much, much higher. The Ukrainians are probably nearer. The attack was just past midnight so there might have been quite a few Russian troops out celebrating the new year who will likely go AWOL if they are thought to be dead rather than go to the front line. Russian deserters are getting more numerous according to reports.

The photos of the scene show a large pile of rubble rather than a building which has blown outwards in a very large explosion.

Interesting attack and helps to keep the Russian body count increasing. 89 is the latest admitted by Russians. Ukrainians are saying it was a HIMARs strike.

Unauthorised mobile phone usage is also being blamed for giving away the location.

HIMARs GMLRS rockets cost about US$150,000. The much longer range HIMARS ATACMS are not sent to Ukraine yet cost more than a million per rocket. Apparently 4 were used so US$600,000 to kill 89 Russians. A price of US$6,740 per Russian. At that rate the price to kill 500,000 of them will be US$3.37bn. Of course not all that money is 'lost'. It would greatly benefit the local economy of where the missiles are made. The US economy could very well benefit from the Ukraine war so long as the supplied munitions were made in the US by US workers and from US derived materials and the monies generated by production were spent on US made products.

[kenneal - lagger]

And if over 400 were killed, and some Russian bloggers are quoting 600, that cost comes down to $1500 or less and an overall cost of less than $1 billion. The US would probably see that as quite cheap.

I don't actually feel bad about discussing the loss of life in this way but I feel as if I should. But then Putin and his minions/supporters leave me feeling that they deserve all they get. The attitude of many Russians doesn't draw any sympathy either with calls for revenge on Ukraine and the west.

There are reports coming from Russia that the lack of manpower in the country is affecting the availability of services with a lack of trades people showing from previous drafts. There is also a report that "a group of wives of dead Russian soldiers" are calling for a mass mobilisation. It would seen that this is a Kremlin organised group to support what Putin is planning for the near future. The bloke really is evil!!

[clv101]

And if over 400 were killed, and some Russian bloggers are quoting 600, that cost comes down to $1500 or less and an overall cost of less than $1 billion. The US would probably see that as quite cheap.

I don't actually feel bad about discussing the loss of life in this way but I feel as if I should. But then Putin and his minions/supporters leave me feeling that they deserve all they get. The attitude of many Russians doesn't draw any sympathy either with calls for revenge on Ukraine and the west.

There are reports coming from Russia that the lack of manpower in the country is affecting the availability of services with a lack of trades people showing from previous drafts. There is also a report that "a group of wives of dead Russian soldiers" are calling for a mass mobilisation. It would seen that this is a Kremlin organised group to support what Putin is planning for the near future. The bloke really is evil!!

Just remember a few short years ago, Bush, Blair and their minions were responsible for far more deaths in Iraq than Putin and his minions have (yet) caused in Ukraine.

There are reports coming from the UK that the lack of manpower in the country is affecting the availability of services...

[BritDownUnder]

Yes the most informative website iraqbodycount.org was a great source of information. I look forward to a website ukrainebodycount.org to give some details. I am not sure that all Iraqis were killed by expensive Coalition munitions though. Most were killed by other Iraqis enjoying their new Post-Saddam freedoms to the fullest.

[mr brightside]

I'm starting to see this situation as having stabilised a bit now. It isn't regularly making headline news any longer and the days of the 1hr news special on the conflict seem to be over. Everyone seems to have adjusted to this being a new norm, just one of those things that drags on somewhere over there and flares up from time to time. It's a different story for the Ukranian people obviously, for them it's as real as it ever was.

[RevdTess]

I'm starting to see this situation as having stabilised a bit now. It isn't regularly making headline news any longer and the days of the 1hr news special on the conflict seem to be over.

It's winter and the opportunities for major advances and breakthroughs are very limited. I expect the aggression will be more fervent again in the Spring. The current invasion kicked off on 24th Feb for example.

I'm not sure if the continuation or conclusion of the war will make any difference to western economic strength at this point. Even if Russia gives up, their energy resources aren't going to be allowed back in Europe for quite a while, and Europe is continuing to set up infrastructure to get energy from elsewhere. Right now it feels like the whole decade could be one long season of grinding stalemate.

[PS_RalphW]

If the west, particularly the US was to donate more offensive weapons in significant numbers, Ukraine could go a long way towards kicking out Russian troops. However, that would be terminal for Putin, and his replacement might be worse. A weak Putin is better than an ultranationalist in the Kremlin. At least, that is the political calculation. The deaths and destruction are secondary.

[Vortex2]

Even if Russia gives up, their energy resources aren't going to be allowed back in Europe for quite a while, and Europe is continuing to set up infrastructure to get energy from elsewhere.

I see it differently.
The US and NATO want to break up Russia into several weak stateless.
Their resources will then be stolen by Western companies and countries as 'reparations'.
"What's our gas doing under their land?"