What preparations (if any) have you made to deal with blackouts?

[BritDownUnder]

And I would recommend moving to a place where the overlords allow you to access and utilize your own mineral rights in order to make up for their incompetence in managing the mineral resources of the people. Ergo, let the individual people manage them.

I am not sure allowing people to exploit their own resources is really that practical these days Down Under. It has to be said that the Australian government has exploited its resources poorly until recently, almost giving away the LNG for free as a result of a few bribed politicians. Problem over here now is that the bulk of the resources are under the seabed so are probably owned by the state anyway or in state owned land in desert nature reserves.
The only exception is the coal seam gas / coal bed methane that is under private farmland/ranch land. Most of the farmers whose land the methane is under have to be forced by legal action to acquiesce to its extraction as in doing so releases large amounts of saline water that damages the future agricultural profitability of the land above.

Private ownership of resources was tried in the UK, I think, before WW2 and had all the problems of aristocrats running coal mines under their vast estates and paying the workers poorly etc. Led to the Nationalisation of the Coal mines in 1947.

Why should Australia worry when it can get all of its energy from a 27 x 27 mile square in a desert in the red centre of the country from solar means. Also 1000 years of coal reserves left and one third of the worlds uranium reserves.

Back to blackouts they are not really caused by a long term shortage of fossil reserves, at the moment anyway, but a shortage of available energy during a short time of the day when demand is highest and there is a lack of despatchable power plants - usually gas powered, and a track record of poor planning policy.

[RenewableCandy]

National Grid and Octopus have launched a scheme where you can get paid to 'move' your electricity demand from the evening peak to a different time.
The only reason I haven't signed us up to it is that I don't live alone and I'd get fed up with telling ppl to not use the oven/etc and sounding like an ARP warden.
https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/advice/o ... ate-scheme

[adam2]

A useful prep for power cuts is a home made battery powered LED light.
You will need
A battery holder for 6 D cells, if not available, use a pair of 3 cell holders.
An in line switch as used for a table lamp.
A few meters of twin flex. 0.5/1.0mm preferably. You may have something suitable, if not search on line for speaker wire.
An E10/MES bulb holder, readily available on line. An insulted version is preferable.
A multi voltage 1 watt LED torch bulb, 1 watt, E10/MES base. Must work over a voltage range of at least 2 volts to 9 volts.

To assemble, connect the wire to the bulb holder, allow 2 or 3 meters of wire to the switch, and then another meter to the battery holder. Some types of battery holder need soldered connections. Soldered connections are more reliable. Connect battery positive to center contact of bulb holder as some bulbs require this.

Run time is at least 100 hours with decent alkaline cells. With a good quality 1 watt bulb the light output is similar to a 15 watt mains bulb. Very useful for the aged or infirm, or if pets and children make flame based lighting unwise. The weight of the bulb and holder is negligible and it may be suspended from an existing light fitting. The heavy battery may be placed at low level.

[Vortex2]

This topic was a good reminder to get ready for the current rerun of the Winter Of Discontent.

I have just ordered another mains battery charger (to speed up charging and as a spare) and one more 105 AH 12-volt leisure battery.

That will give me around 300AH at 12 volts for blackouts.
Not amazing, but useful.

[clv101]

Winter starts for real this week. By Friday we can all expect a hard frost. Low wind as well just to test the energy system.

[Vortex2]

Cold today.

Trying out a portable butane 4kW heater indoors as we speak.

Much cosier than an electric fire.

It will be interesting to see how this works in our sealed eco house with warm air heating from an air source heat pump.

[kenneal - lagger]

We had minus 1.5C last night and a hard frost.

We will be splitting a load of logs on Sunday which were cut up and covered last year. We've got probably a month's worth split and stacked from last winter but there are enough cut and covered to last through the winter. We will cut and cover another load of seasoned wood so that if we have a really long cold spell we will have dry logs almost ready to burn.

The DraughtBusters group that I belong to are about to start going into the houses of hard up people referred to us by Social Services and fitting draught stripping for free.

[clv101]

A useful prep for power cuts is a home made battery powered LED light.
You will need
A battery holder for 6 D cells, if not available, use a pair of 3 cell holders.
An in line switch as used for a table lamp.
A few meters of twin flex. 0.5/1.0mm preferably. You may have something suitable, if not search on line for speaker wire.
An E10/MES bulb holder, readily available on line. An insulted version is preferable.
A multi voltage 1 watt LED torch bulb, 1 watt, E10/MES base. Must work over a voltage range of at least 2 volts to 9 volts.

To assemble, connect the wire to the bulb holder, allow 2 or 3 meters of wire to the switch, and then another meter to the battery holder. Some types of battery holder need soldered connections. Soldered connections are more reliable. Connect battery positive to center contact of bulb holder as some bulbs require this.

Run time is at least 100 hours with decent alkaline cells. With a good quality 1 watt bulb the light output is similar to a 15 watt mains bulb. Very useful for the aged or infirm, or if pets and children make flame based lighting unwise. The weight of the bulb and holder is negligible and it may be suspended from an existing light fitting. The heavy battery may be placed at low level.

I asked ChatGPT

Provide instructions on how to make home made battery powered LED light using 6 D cells. Specify what size flex should be used and what power LED should be used. How many hours will it run for before batteries are flat?

It replied thus:

To make a home-made battery-powered LED light using 6 D cells, you will need the following materials:

6 D cells
1 LED light
1 battery holder that can hold 6 D cells
Wires for connecting the battery holder to the LED light
Electrical tape or heat shrink tubing for insulating the connections

First, connect the positive terminal of the battery holder to the positive lead of the LED light using a wire. Then, connect the negative terminal of the battery holder to the negative lead of the LED light using another wire. Use electrical tape or heat shrink tubing to insulate the connections to prevent short circuits.

Next, choose the size of the flex cable that you will use to suspend the LED light. The size of the flex cable will depend on the weight of the LED light and the battery holder, as well as the desired length and flexibility of the cable. For example, if you are using a relatively lightweight LED light and battery holder, and you want a flexible cable that is not too long, you can use a 16 AWG flex cable. This is a relatively small and flexible cable that can support a moderate amount of weight.

Finally, choose the power of the LED light that you will use. The power of the LED light will determine how bright it is, as well as how much energy it will consume. For example, a 1 watt LED light will be less bright and consume less energy than a 3 watt LED light. To determine the best power for your LED light, consider the size of the space you want to illuminate and the amount of light you want to produce.

As for how many hours the LED light will run for before the batteries are flat, this will depend on the power of the LED light and the capacity of the D cells. D cells typically have a capacity of around 20-25 Ah, so if you are using a 1 watt LED light, the batteries should last for around 500-625 hours. However, if you are using a 3 watt LED light, the batteries will last for significantly less time, possibly as little as 150-175 hours. It is best to test the LED light with the batteries you are using to determine the exact runtime.

Not bad, but not great either.

[Vortex2]

Not bad, but not great either.

Sheesh, this would have been science fiction just two years ago ..

[RevdTess]

Not bad, but not great either.

Sheesh, this would have been science fiction just two years ago ..

I feel like we are now ruining all the google results for when people type queries asking for How-To's. You're just going to end up with a mushy list of AI responses that are going to start feeding each other's input algorithms without any of them knowing if what they're saying is actually true.

Wait a minute...

[clv101]

Seems demand reached 46.98GW this evening which I think was the highest demand so far this year. ...and even with very little wind and no solar, the lights stayed on!

[PS_RalphW]

Drax was asked to warm up two standby coal turbines for today, but in the end they were not needed and stood down. Temps dropped to minus 8 in Cambridge last night, with 2 inches of snow. Yesterday temps peaked at minus 2. We are over the worst of this cold snap .

[adam2]

Seems demand reached 46.98GW this evening which I think was the highest demand so far this year. ...and even with very little wind and no solar, the lights stayed on!

AFAIK, Generating capacity is almost certainly adequate, even for peak winter load.
The possible problem is natural gas to fuel that capacity. A brief cold snap that coincides with calm weather should be fine as even our meagre gas storage can supply the extra load for a week or more.
If however calm and cold weather was prolonged, or frequently repeated, then gas might run so short that electricity production from natural gas might be restricted. In the absence of sufficient alternatives then the lights might well go out.

[johnny]

Not bad, but not great either.

Sheesh, this would have been science fiction just two years ago ..

Hey Vortex, ask it an easy question, like "Colin Campbell predicted global peak oil to happen in 1990 and was wrong." and see what kind of a story it kicks out. Is that too limited of an input statement? Or do you have to make it a question to then write about, in which case "Why was Colin Campbell wrong when he predicted global peak oil to happen in 1990?".

[Vortex2]

After a couple of semi-failed queries, I got this:

As I mentioned earlier, the idea of peak oil is still a subject of debate among experts. Some believe that global oil production has already peaked, while others argue that it is still on the rise. Still others believe that advances in technology will allow us to continue to extract oil from the ground for many years to come.

In terms of Colin Campbell's specific prediction that global peak oil would occur around the year 2000, it is clear that this did not come to pass. Global oil production has continued to rise since then, and as I mentioned earlier, it is difficult to predict with precision when it will reach its maximum.

It is worth noting, however, that Campbell has continued to be a vocal advocate for the idea of peak oil, and he has argued that his original prediction was not necessarily incorrect, but rather that it was based on a limited understanding of the factors that impact global oil production. He has also pointed out that while global oil production has continued to rise since 2000, it has done so at a slower rate than in the past, and he believes that this is evidence that we are approaching the peak.

Overall, it is difficult to say whether Colin Campbell's idea of peak oil is correct or incorrect, as this is a complex and evolving issue. What is clear, however, is that his original prediction did not come to pass, and that the timing and impact of peak oil remains uncertain.

Your final question prompted this:

Colin Campbell was not necessarily wrong in his prediction that global peak oil would occur around the year 2000. As I mentioned earlier, the idea of peak oil is a complex and evolving issue, and there is still a great deal of uncertainty about when and if it will actually occur.

One of the main reasons that Campbell's prediction did not come to pass is that there have been a number of developments in the field of oil production since he made his prediction. For example, advances in technology have allowed for the extraction of oil from previously inaccessible sources, such as deepwater reserves and shale formations. This has increased global oil production and pushed back the timeline for peak oil.

In addition, changes in global demand for oil have also impacted the rate of production. For example, the growth of the Chinese economy in the early 2000s led to a significant increase in demand for oil, which in turn boosted production.

Overall, while Campbell's prediction that global peak oil would occur around the year 2000 did not come to pass, it is important to remember that predicting the timing of peak oil is a difficult task, and there are many factors that can impact the rate of production.