Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

its nuclear reactors are off line

I suppose that the reactors could still be running, generating enough power to operate systems on-site

[PS_RalphW]

All the Ukrainian controlled reactors are now reconnected to the grid. Video evidence of Russian POWs being shot by Ukrainian soldiers is judged to be genuine by the UN. War crimes happen on all sides.

[PS_RalphW]

It is reported that Russia is now using 1980s nuclear cruise missiles with the nuclear warhead replaced with ballast. These have low accuracy and are presumably used as decoys to distract air defences from live missiles or in the hope that they will randomly hit something worth damaging.

[Vortex2]

Re the Sidewinder missile yarn we covered a while back - the full story.

https://www.rt.com/russia/561149-volunt ... idewinder/

(You might need a VPN to view RT)

[Vortex2]

Calling all armchair warriors!

Here is a professional technical analysis of the war so far.

https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine- ... -final.pdf

[PS_RalphW]

It is now clear that Putin only has one strategy left in this war, to cripple Ukraine as a nation by destroying its infrastructure, to disrupt its industry and force its people into exile by making its cities uninhabitable. He then hopes to hold on to the territory he has captured, and complete the capture of the Donbas and then declare victory. He is making no attempt to complete the invasion of the remaining regions he has already claimed as Russian territory, and is systematically bombing the city of Kherson, which his troops retreated from but still claims is part of Russia, to make it uninhabitable.

If Putin intended to win more territory he would be regrouping, defending his current gains and training his Mobilised conscripts and resting his standing army ready for a spring offensive. In stead he is throwing his conscripts straight into battle in the Donbas front line, redeploying the troops withdrawn from Kherson in the fight as well. He is scraping the barrel of his long range missile stocks to hit civilian targets, saving little if any to support a spring offensive. He is gaining tiny amounts of ground from this last throw of the dice. Some estimates are that he will have consumed his current supply of fresh conscripts in 2 or 3 months.

Putin knows he cannot sustain the backing of the Russian people for a long war, he has spent 20 years depoliticising the people, in a Faustian pact of improving economic life and freedoms in exchange for strict suppression of political opposition. The mobilisation has broken that pact, and he will not be able to repeat the process. Already his most productive demographic have voted with their feet and emigrated. If Ukraine survives the winter cold, Russia will be a spent force militarily. They have nothing left in the cupboard, and Ukraine will be able to retake the initiative. Already there are signs that Russia is preparing to abandon more of the Kherson region with its political capital and resources relocating to its Eastern most border area.

[PS_RalphW]

The EU and the G7 have agreed a price cap on buying Russian crude oil of 60 dollars, and an embargo on it being carried in Western insured tankers, to start next week. Not sure how much impact this will have, as Brent oil has fallen to 85 dollars and Russian crude sells at a significant discount to that. The EU will keep the cap at least 5% below market price.

I suspect this is largely a symbolic act, as Russia is having little difficulty selling its oil in the global market, and is still the second biggest global exporter.

[UndercoverElephant]

Putin knows he cannot sustain the backing of the Russian people for a long war, he has spent 20 years depoliticising the people, in a Faustian pact of improving economic life and freedoms in exchange for strict suppression of political opposition. The mobilisation has broken that pact, and he will not be able to repeat the process. Already his most productive demographic have voted with their feet and emigrated. If Ukraine survives the winter cold, Russia will be a spent force militarily. They have nothing left in the cupboard, and Ukraine will be able to retake the initiative. Already there are signs that Russia is preparing to abandon more of the Kherson region with its political capital and resources relocating to its Eastern most border area.

Of course Ukraine can sustain the winter cold. Your own post explains why it would be madness for them to cave in at this point. Putin is completely cornered. All he can do is make life as unpleasant as possible, for the populations on both side of this war, until the Russian army collapses at some point next year.

[Vortex2]

is systematically bombing the city of Kherson, which his troops retreated from but still claims is part of Russia, to make it uninhabitable.

The Russians are fighting a counter-force war whilst Ukraine is trying to hold/retain land.

This means that the Russian shelling in Kherson is primarily intended to kill soldiers rather than destroy buildings.

[Vortex2]

War crimes happen on all sides.

I doubt that many posters here would have said that if it were a Russian war crime.

[PS_RalphW]

is systematically bombing the city of Kherson, which his troops retreated from but still claims is part of Russia, to make it uninhabitable.

The Russians are fighting a counter-force war whilst Ukraine is trying to hold/retain land.

This means that the Russian shelling in Kherson is primarily intended to kill soldiers rather than destroy buildings.

No. The shelling is primarily of civilian infrastructure. Most of it was deliberately destroyed by the Russians before they left. A simple scorched earth strategy.

I mentioned the Ukrainian war crime as it was the first one I have seen documented. The Russian ones are too many to count.

[clv101]

I agree with much of what Jeffrey Sachs says in this (~6 week old) interview:
https://youtu.be/D1oV2JQVnj4

[Vortex2]

The Ukraine war and sanctions began in .... wait for it ... 2014

I have just been reading a book from 2015 entitled "Putin's Russia".

It is a collection of papers written by Russians .. but published by an American firm.

They refer to the Ukraine war and sanctions .. back in 2014.

So .. the war did NOT start in 2022.

I'm not saying Russia has clean hands ... BUT .. all those armchair warriors waving Ukrainian flags should perhaps have reviewed the history of the region first.

[PS_RalphW]

But Putin says it is not a war. It is a special military operation.

[invalid]

But Putin says It is a special military operation.

That makes sense - as part of the ongoing war.