Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

This is a useful contribution to the debate. I agree with most of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jY3QpjxiPk

[UndercoverElephant]

This is a useful contribution to the debate. I agree with most of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jY3QpjxiPk

Agreed - a destabilised or chaotic Russia makes the global situation potentially far worse than it currently is now. It is a total wildcard - it is impossible to predict what would happen, and some of the possible outcomes are terrifying. Geopolitical Russian Roulette.

[BritDownUnder]

This is a useful contribution to the debate. I agree with most of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jY3QpjxiPk

Agreed - a destabilised or chaotic Russia makes the global situation potentially far worse than it currently is now. It is a total wildcard - it is impossible to predict what would happen, and some of the possible outcomes are terrifying. Geopolitical Russian Roulette.

A weakened country that is busy worrying about its own restive minorities that it is currently busy sending to their deaths in Ukraine and looking over its shoulder about getting its Eastern third occupied by China. What's not to like?

The security of their nukes is a matter for them and it probably keeps them awake at night more than the West and I am sure that Putin keeps them in places that are not easy for any subversives to get hold of. If Nate Hagens wants to stay awake at night worrying about Russia nuking everyone then he is welcome to - if they try it they will be destroyed in a few hours. Keeping Russia busy by killing their soldiers in Ukraine is good for everyone as they won't be busy killing people in other places.

[Vortex2]

This is a useful contribution to the debate. I agree with most of this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jY3QpjxiPk

Agreed - a destabilised or chaotic Russia makes the global situation potentially far worse than it currently is now. It is a total wildcard - it is impossible to predict what would happen, and some of the possible outcomes are terrifying. Geopolitical Russian Roulette.

At a simpler level, if Russia gets pushed out of Ukraine it could simply destroy all the fossil fuel feeds etc going towards Europe.

Shades of destroyed oil wells in Kuwait.

[UndercoverElephant]

At a simpler level, if Russia gets pushed out of Ukraine it could simply destroy all the fossil fuel feeds etc going towards Europe.

In the future, Europe cannot rely on a supply of Russian resources -- any Russian resources. That is already true, regardless of the outcome of this war.

[Vortex2]

At a simpler level, if Russia gets pushed out of Ukraine it could simply destroy all the fossil fuel feeds etc going towards Europe.

In the future, Europe cannot rely on a supply of Russian resources -- any Russian resources. That is already true, regardless of the outcome of this war.

If it ever became 100% definite than Europe simply could not access Russian enery then Europe's world view would chnage.
Suddenly they/we would feel very isolated, having to rely significantly on LNG ships & oil tankers from across the world.
Major energy intensive European industries would simply disapppear.
The Old World would rapidly lose its place in the sun ... it would become a third-world zone relying on tourism for income.
The US cannot lose from any of this.

[kenneal - lagger]

.......................Suddenly they/we would feel very isolated, having to rely significantly on LNG ships & oil tankers from across the world.
Major energy intensive European industries would simply disapppear.
.............................

I don't think that is true. Europe would soon find a lot of energy resources that have been around for millennia but which have been a bit more expensive to use than fossil fuels. Wind, solar, hydroelectric and geothermal are all available in varying quantities throughout Europe as are, probably, some negawatts.

They might even invest in carbon capture that actually worked to continue using coal!! Not that I am advocating that as a good idea but if you are a coal producer your ideas on that would be different.

[RenewableCandy]

I genuinely think people - in the USA and here in the UK - under-estimate the catastrophic effects on any economy of straightforward, old-school corruption. Even if your country is brimming with natural resources, you won't get well-off people, or a middle class (let's face it although we don't do most of the work, we do do the organising), being able to direct them to any useful goal if there's too much corruption.

Here's a very good vid of the effect of all this on the armed forces and their ability to operate (there's another one on the economy but I can't find it atm). Honestly it is well worth your time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fz59GWeTIik

[RenewableCandy]

Massive power cuts, including in neighbouring Moldova, tonight.

https://www.euronews.com/2022/11/23/ukr ... le-strikes

Their President is now putting together a plan to import from elsewhere.

In other 'connections'-related news, the Baltic States are meeting with a view to changing their countries' rail gauges away from the Russian standard and towards the European 1435 one. Handy map here:
https://jakubmarian.com/track-gauge-by- ... in-europe/

[Vortex2]

Britain must cut energy usage by 15pc to defeat Vladimir Putin, Jeremy Hunt has said as the country scrambles to head off potential disruption this winter.

The Chancellor urged households to “play your part” in reducing the UK's vulnerability to Russia and other despotic regimes.

.. to defeat Vladimir Putin ...

Just eff off, Jeremy. Twerp.

[Vortex2]

.......................Suddenly they/we would feel very isolated, having to rely significantly on LNG ships & oil tankers from across the world.
Major energy intensive European industries would simply disapppear.
.............................

I don't think that is true.

Gas is used as a chemical feedstock too.

90% of German gas imports go into 300 chemical products.

https://newsrnd.com/business/2022-11-10 ... Nwcrs.html

(The horrific drought in the South West USA is similar : 80% of the water goes to .. growing almonds)

[BritDownUnder]

.......................Suddenly they/we would feel very isolated, having to rely significantly on LNG ships & oil tankers from across the world.
Major energy intensive European industries would simply disapppear.
.............................

I don't think that is true.

Gas is used as a chemical feedstock too.

90% of German gas imports go into 300 chemical products.

https://newsrnd.com/business/2022-11-10 ... Nwcrs.html

(The horrific drought in the South West USA is similar : 80% of the water goes to .. growing almonds)

Not quite. The master of the half-truth strikes again.

In California 80% of our water goes toward agriculture and 20% of that goes to tree nuts.

Source
So that's 18% and not 80%.

California is quite important for US food production.

Over a third of the country’s vegetables and three-quarters of the country’s fruits and nuts are grown in California.

Source.

Have a lovely day from the Land Down Under where currently 49% of our electricity is coming from renewables and none from Russian gas.

[Mark]

.......................Suddenly they/we would feel very isolated, having to rely significantly on LNG ships & oil tankers from across the world.
Major energy intensive European industries would simply disapppear.
.............................

I don't think that is true. Europe would soon find a lot of energy resources that have been around for millennia but which have been a bit more expensive to use than fossil fuels. Wind, solar, hydroelectric and geothermal are all available in varying quantities throughout Europe as are, probably, some negawatts.

They might even invest in carbon capture that actually worked to continue using coal!! Not that I am advocating that as a good idea but if you are a coal producer your ideas on that would be different.

Agree kenneal, although I also think it would be wise to rapidly invest in building some LNG storage facilities......, whilst we transition....
Vortex2, most major energy intensive European industries have already disappeared....??

[Vortex2]

So that's 18% and not 80%.

Well spotted .. I misheard a comment on YT.

[PS_RalphW]

With Ukraine approaching total grid failure due to relentless Russian bombing, all but one of its nuclear reactors are off line. If these are not reconnected and the grid stays down, their cooling will be dependant on diesel generators, and the supply of diesel. This must significantly raise the risk of at least reactor going into meltdown.