Should we expect power cuts? If so, what type?

[adam2]

I think we're letting these crazy prices distract us from the looming physical shortages.
Are these prices a euphemism for shuttered industry and cold, dark homes this winter?

Agreed.
I can see lower priority industrial users of electricity being closed down, either by emergency regulation, or by being unable to pay the improved prices.
I expect that any threat of rota power cuts will result in schools closing.
I expect that any attempt to reduce heating in government offices will result in strike action.

I expect a flood of claims from persons or institutions that expect to be exempted from rota power cuts.

I expect an increase in urban myths and rumours, mainly of the "I am being treated worse than the others" type.

If emergency regulations are introduced to save fuel then I expect that that these will be generally flouted or ignored. Followed by outrage when violators are arrested.

I remember the last lot ! That was bad enough, but since then society has got more reliant on electricity, people have got dumber, and we now have social media by which urban myths and rumours can be spread.

I also wonder how many standby generators and emergency lighting systems will work as intended, not many I suspect.

[adam2]

The risk of rota power cuts has in my view increased.
The government price cap of about 37 pence a unit domestically or about 21 pence a unit for non domestic will no doubt be welcomed by consumers, but will stimulate demand beyond that resulting from market prices.

Many non domestic users of electricity are very wasteful, and the subsidised 21 pence a unit gives little incentive to improve things.
The two worst sectors for energy waste are IME retail and hospitality.

Hotels with energy wasting mini bars running in empty rooms.
External lighting in bright daylight.
Heating shops with permanently open doors.
Outside heating.

All this increases demand, perhaps to beyond the available supply.

[cubes]

That 21p/unit is the wholesale cost and you'll need to add distribution costs, admin and profit for the suppliers too. I suspect the price will end up close to the consumer price for your average SME.

[Vortex2]

Germany may have to cut electricity exports to France and other countries this winter to prevent a collapse of its power grid, a boss at the country’s largest grid operator has said.

Hendrik Neumann, chief technical officer at Amprion, said a temporary halt may even be necessary as a “last resort” to prevent shortages and bottlenecks.

He told the Financial Times: “We are assuming a highly stressed situation during the coming winter.”

[adam2]

That 21p/unit is the wholesale cost and you'll need to add distribution costs, admin and profit for the suppliers too. I suspect the price will end up close to the consumer price for your average SME.

Are you certain, I understood that the 21 pence a unit was the actual price payable per unit, but I stand to be corrected.
Does anyone know for certain ?

Edited to add that the 21 pence a unit IS the wholesale cost and not the retail price as I believed. See following post for details.

[cubes]

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/energy-bill ... be-reduced

The government will provide a discount on your gas and electricity unit prices. To calculate your discount, the estimated wholesale portion of the unit price you would be paying this winter will be compared to a baseline ‘government supported price’ which is lower than currently expected wholesale prices this winter.

For all non-domestic energy users in Great Britain this government supported price has been set at:

£211 per megawatt hour (MWh) for electricity
£75 per MWh for gas

There are some examples further down the page.

[adam2]

Thanks for the above information. I have edited my post to reflect this.

[cubes]

They did make it confusing imo.

[adam2]

Latest news report here. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441 Though it adds little to earlier news.

[Vortex2]

How 7-day winter blackouts could hit UK transport, food, and energy in Government ‘war game’ plans

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ho ... r-AA13E65T

[adam2]

It is in my view unduly alarmist to imply that large scale power cuts could last for 7 days.
I don't think that the report actually states 7 day power cuts, but this is certainly implied.

Rota power cuts for 7 days, certainly possible, with each consumer being subjected to several 3 hour power cuts during those 7 days.

It is also stated that supplies to the elderly and those with children "would be prioritised" Do not see how that can be achieved.

Multi day power cuts due to severe weather are a distinct possibility in remote areas. It happened last winter due to storm Arwen and could happen this winter.

There is also a small but real risk of long term power cuts due to enemy attacks on electrical infrastructure, both cyber attacks and blowing things up.

The most likely scenario is a simple natural gas shortage. Compounded by a lack of electricity imports from Europe. That would result in rota power cuts of 3 hours at a time. The number of cuts would vary from several in a week, up to several in one day, depending on the degree of shortage.

If the situation was really bad, then a state of emergency is likely with restrictions on the use of gas and electricity imposed.

[emordnilap]

As Adam has pointed out, there's a long way to go in cutting unnecessary usage. I noticed our nearest university has switched off all its fountains, for instance. They're pretty but useless and I hope other places take note.

[PS_RalphW]

Just got a text alert from UKPN warning of a possible unplanned power cut at my area. Not got any details.

[adam2]

Just got a text alert from UKPN warning of a possible unplanned power cut at my area. Not got any details.

Not aware of any generalised shortage of supply or excess demand at present.

Sounds to me like either a substation at risk of flooding, or a series of breakdowns that have eliminated or greatly reduced redundancy, such that another failure will result in loss of supply.

[PS_RalphW]

The power cut was localised and very short lived, lasting about a minute. Probably due to local flooding in heavy rain