Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

And as the US estimate 100000 dead on each side, if the Russians are said to be doing so badly, how are the Ukrainians doing?

The Ukrainians will get their country back, including Crimea, and will go forwards under the protection of NATO. Given that they are the innocent victims here, and the Russians are the criminal aggressors, 100,000 deaths is a price worth paying. For Russia, the loss of 100,000 people in a failed land-grab to satisfy the vanity of Vladimir Putin is an unmitigated catastrophe.

[invalid]

The russians are doing a bit rubbish matey.

So the Ukrainians/nato are as well?

[Vortex2]

The Ukrainians will get their country back, including Crimea,
Crimea - never.

and will go forwards under the protection of NATO.
50/50

Given that they are the innocent victims here,
Not quite as simple as that.

and the Russians are the criminal aggressors,
Again, not so black and white.

100,000 deaths is a price worth paying.
I'm at a loss for words ..

For Russia, the loss of 100,000 people in a failed land-grab to satisfy the vanity of Vladimir Putin is an unmitigated catastrophe.
It's not a land grab, and it hasn't failed as yet, and I doubt it's anything to do with Putin's vanity.

[PS_RalphW]

The Ukrainians will get their country back, including Crimea,
Crimea - never.

and will go forwards under the protection of NATO.
50/50

Given that they are the innocent victims here,
Not quite as simple as that.

and the Russians are the criminal aggressors,
Again, not so black and white.

100,000 deaths is a price worth paying.
I'm at a loss for words ..

For Russia, the loss of 100,000 people in a failed land-grab to satisfy the vanity of Vladimir Putin is an unmitigated catastrophe.
It's not a land grab, and it hasn't failed as yet, and I doubt it's anything to do with Putin's vanity.

Crimea is already within drone strike range of Ukrainian forces. Basically long range high accuracy artillery is neutralising the massive numbers advantage that Russia has. They will be progressively pushed back to the Crimean border, at which point it becomes impossible for the Russians to hold it, as they failed to hold Kherson. They will be forced to withdraw or make terms. Given the deaths they suffered under Stalin the Ukrainians rightly feel that 100,000 deaths is a price worth paying. The Russian military tactics and reports from liberated areas also show that a lot more than 100,000 would end up dead under Russian rule.

This has almost everything to do with Putin, with the backing of a small number of ultra nationalists. He knows his years are numbered, and Russia under his rule has become little more than a banana republic, with almost no high tech industry and only soviet era engineering capabilities, and precious few diplomatic allies. This was his last roll of the dice and he crapped out, to quote Porgy and Bess

[Vortex2]

The Ukrainians will get their country back, including Crimea,
Crimea - never.

and will go forwards under the protection of NATO.
50/50

Given that they are the innocent victims here,
Not quite as simple as that.

and the Russians are the criminal aggressors,
Again, not so black and white.

100,000 deaths is a price worth paying.
I'm at a loss for words ..

For Russia, the loss of 100,000 people in a failed land-grab to satisfy the vanity of Vladimir Putin is an unmitigated catastrophe.
It's not a land grab, and it hasn't failed as yet, and I doubt it's anything to do with Putin's vanity.

Crimea is already within drone strike range of Ukrainian forces. Basically long range high accuracy artillery is neutralising the massive numbers advantage that Russia has. They will be progressively pushed back to the Crimean border, at which point it becomes impossible for the Russians to hold it, as they failed to hold Kherson. They will be forced to withdraw or make terms. Given the deaths they suffered under Stalin the Ukrainians rightly feel that 100,000 deaths is a price worth paying. The Russian military tactics and reports from liberated areas also show that a lot more than 100,000 would end up dead under Russian rule.

This has almost everything to do with Putin, with the backing of a small number of ultra nationalists. He knows his years are numbered, and Russia under his rule has become little more than a banana republic, with almost no high tech industry and only soviet era engineering capabilities, and precious few diplomatic allies. This was his last roll of the dice and he crapped out, to quote Porgy and Bess

Putin will not give up Crimea.
At some point, if he is being pushed back, he will resort to nuclear weapons.
Also, your description of Russia is 'off' .. it's a modern Western society, not a jungle hell hole.
I hope that all those with their Ukraine avatars, their donations to the Ukraine war effort etc will have a couple of seconds to reflect on their childish behaviour wen they see fireballs and mushroom clouds appear on the horizon.

[UndercoverElephant]

Putin will not give up Crimea.

Putin didn't want to give up Kherson either, precisely because controlling Kherson is necessary for long-term control of Crimea. Putin ordered that Kherson must not be surrendered, but his army could not hold it.

At some point, if he is being pushed back, he will resort to nuclear weapons.

That bluff has been called already.

Also, your description of Russia is 'off' .. it's a modern Western society, not a jungle hell hole.

No dictatorship or one party state can properly be described as a modern Western society. Modern Western society requires some form of democracy.

[RenewableCandy]

Also, your description of Russia is 'off' .. it's a modern Western society, not a jungle hell hole.

Beyond Moscow, StP and a few other lucky cities, I can assure you that the dreadfulness is real. How do I know? Because, having seen some particularly colourful descriptions on Twitter (RIP - almost) I went and asked Marvellous Other Half.
And he said:
The lack of street-lighting is real.
The lack of metalled roads, too.
Outside a few lucky mining towns, so is the lack of indoor plumbing. And there's no electricity. Not because somebody's bombed it - it just isn't there.

So you may ask, if there's no leccy what are all these twazzocks doing stealing washing machines? Apparently they sell them on! Either to their boss (sergeant-major or whatever, who sells them on up to some higher-rank chap who has electricity) or else there's a general bounty because ELECTRONICS.

Now there are vids of interviews of captured Russians talking about all this, and I thought they were faked. Well, perhaps the individual encounters are. But there are also intercepted phone calls (said twazzocks nick Ukrainians' phones, Ukrainians report phones stolen and give details to their National Security, who quietly put in taps.) These calls - most come complete with video - are a real eye-opener. I can just about follow the words. They are soldiers ringing home being astonished about said street lighting, electricity and indoor bogs. There are also calls about how crap all their kit is.

Finally there are military experts talking about why it is that the land forces of the world's supposedly 2nd-strongest military power are so badly kitted out & losing to a smaller country who are (till now) being drip-fed 2ndhand Western kit.

The answer is lies ('Vranyo' is a particular type of lie) and corruption. Nobody dare report a setback up the chain of command, so all bar the soldiers on the front and their immediate command think it's going swimmingly. Until it very obviously isn't.

[PS_RalphW]

Large explosion in the main gas pipeline serving St Petersburg. Probably sabotage, possibly by Russians themselves. Ukraine will be seeking crocodile tears.

[Vortex2]

Kherson

The Russians have pulled back, and have set up further lines some 60km away.
Ukraine moved in - but is now evacuationg civilans from the Kherson area.

Putting my end-of-the world hat on, I would think that Kherson could be the 'demo' site for a nuclear warhead.

This would have to be large for marketing effect - and an airburst, to avoid spreading irradited soil.

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine is evacuating Kherson because Russia trashed it to the point of being uninhabitable in winter.

[Mark]

Now there are vids of interviews of captured Russians talking about all this, and I thought they were faked. Well, perhaps the individual encounters are. But there are also intercepted phone calls (said twazzocks nick Ukrainians' phones, Ukrainians report phones stolen and give details to their National Security, who quietly put in taps.) These calls - most come complete with video - are a real eye-opener. I can just about follow the words. They are soldiers ringing home being astonished about said street lighting, electricity and indoor bogs. There are also calls about how crap all their kit is.

I used to chat with an interesting old lady from Sudetenland - she's sadly passed now...
Lots of interesting stories of the Nazis arriving, living through the war, being liberated by the Russians and then living under Communism....
She said the Russians were uneducated animals, who stole anything that wasn't nailed down and wanted to rape every woman...
She also said that they obviously hadn't seen electricity, or many other things that were considered as basics even back then...
Seems like not much has changed in the years since....

[adam2]

An ALLEGEDLY true story from the last war.
As russian troops overran areas previously held by the nazis, it was reported that many soldiers looted hot water taps, because none of them had hot water at home !

[BritDownUnder]

An ALLEGEDLY true story from the last war.
As russian troops overran areas previously held by the nazis, it was reported that many soldiers looted hot water taps, because none of them had hot water at home !

I think when the Russian occupied the Danish Island of Bornholm at the end of WW2, while they did not carry out mass rapes as US soldiers were watching, they did steal all the taps.

When I was visiting Russia the Moscow guide put it like this. "A Russian is half European and half Asian (presumably meaning Mongolian) and can't quite decide which and the two halves are in competition. Sometime they build and sometimes they destroy". Orlov, of Peak Oil fame also has some interesting writings on Russians and their habits.

[kenneal - lagger]

Hopefully the Russians conscripts who manage to live through this war will go home and relate to their friends and relatives the wonders that they have seen ordinary Ukrainians enjoying and this will provoke a wave of discontent which Russians take out on their thieving politicians and administrators leading to huge changes for the better in Russia and its attitude to the rest of the world. We can but hope!!

[Vortex2]

Russia's claimed poverty

I have found satellite photos of the UK and Russia at night.

The lighting volume shown in both seem to match up with the population differences between the two countries.

It is clear that Russia is a huge place - the eastern two thirds are almost empty according to the lighting.

Just to be sure, I also checked a Russian population density map - yep, the lights match the population centres.

That said, I couldn't find stats or maps showing water tap density.