Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

Everything I have seen online, for example comments sections of websites with recommendation voting, suggests that 90% of the UK population supports Ukraine in this war, and are happy for the UK government to be spending a lot of tax payers money on it, even at this time, and to suffer the economic impact of the energy crisis. I also know a lot of Liberal, caring people who are actively supporting Ukrainian refugees. I have never known any other war which had so much public backing here. Considering that a significant percentage of people could not have found Ukraine on a map a year ago, I find this utterly remarkable. I can only put this down to the cultural trauma of the cold War still being deeply engrained in our psyche. Of course, a lot of that was propaganda at the time, but the impact was generational.
Everything points to the Russian people being much less supportive of their people being killed in large numbers, and their economy being wrecked, even if many are accepting their governments propaganda at face value.

This government is very lucky to be able to pin at least some of our economic woes on Putin, it marginally reduces the pressure on them, and a good war is always a way of distracting from economic incompetence or malpractice at home.

Vortex, RC was referring to the Russian people, not the British.

[clv101]

This government is very lucky to be able to pin at least some of our economic woes on Putin, it marginally reduces the pressure on them, and a good war is always a way of distracting from economic incompetence or malpractice at home.

A distraction yes, but the negative impact is still there and adds further damage to our already battered economy.

[kenneal - lagger]

The power plant will be at the bottom of the dam where the head and therefore the power is at a maximum. It has probably been turned off now and probably mined. If the Russians blew the power plant they would slowly lower the level in the reservoir which would compromise the water supply to both the Crimea and the cooling water to the Zaporizhia Nuclear plant. I doubt that they Russians would want to do that until they were being pushed out of Crimea.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia has been using the scorched earth tactic in Kherson, stealing every thing they can carry, drive, unbolt or dig up, including people, and blowing up as much civilian infrastructure as possible. This is not a military tactic, it is intended to destroy the Ukrainian culture and economy in the region. It is explicitly racist and fully iin line with the supremacist ideology of the ultra nationalists in Russia. It is intended to weaken Ukraine in the future decades, and it is a clear admission of defeat on the battlefield. This shows that Putin is less in control now, and Russia is becoming more dangerous.

The war, however, is a long way from over. As the Russians retreat, they will find it easier to hold on to the territory they still hold. Ukraine still needs more long range weapons to take apart the Russian logistics.

[Vortex2]

Russia has been using the scorched earth tactic in Kherson

I haven't seen anything which diverges significantly from the standard Soviet/Russian military playbook.

My only surprise is that they didn't go at full speed from Day One.
A massive attack on the Ukraine infrastructure would have been possible - NATO weapons and forces (sorry, 'volunteers') wouldn't have been in place at that point.

The failure/weakness to be sufficiently agressive is what will cause Putin to be deposed.

This slow pace has also resulted in maybe 200,000 needless deaths so far.

[PS_RalphW]

200,000 needless deaths yes, but squarely the fault of Putin and his cronies for the illegal and unjustified invasion in the first place.

[Vortex2]

"... illegal invasion ..."

Almost every reference in the media to the conflict uses the phrase "illegal invasion" ... statistically odd ...

[UndercoverElephant]

Everything I have seen online, for example comments sections of websites with recommendation voting, suggests that 90% of the UK population supports Ukraine in this war, and are happy for the UK government to be spending a lot of tax payers money on it, even at this time, and to suffer the economic impact of the energy crisis. I also know a lot of Liberal, caring people who are actively supporting Ukrainian refugees. I have never known any other war which had so much public backing here. Considering that a significant percentage of people could not have found Ukraine on a map a year ago, I find this utterly remarkable. I can only put this down to the cultural trauma of the cold War still being deeply engrained in our psyche.

I think people have an intuitive understanding that allowing Russia to win this war - to gain territory out of naked, illegal aggression - would set an extremely dangerous precedent. Not supporting Ukraine might seem attractive in the short term, but the longer term risks aren't worth taking.

[UndercoverElephant]

"... illegal invasion ..."

Almost every reference in the media to the conflict uses the phrase "illegal invasion" ... statistically odd ...

There's nothing odd about it. It means the war has no legal or ethical justification, and the Russians have almost no international support. It is a 19th-century style land-grab, and nothing else. There is no ideological motive - a fact that Russians try to hide by continually talking about "denazification" of Ukraine.

[kenneal - lagger]

Russia has been using the scorched earth tactic in Kherson

I haven't seen anything which diverges significantly from the standard Soviet/Russian military playbook.

My only surprise is that they didn't go at full speed from Day One.
A massive attack on the Ukraine infrastructure would have been possible - NATO weapons and forces (sorry, 'volunteers') wouldn't have been in place at that point.

The failure/weakness to be sufficiently agressive is what will cause Putin to be deposed.

This slow pace has also resulted in maybe 200,000 needless deaths so far.

The original idea, as has been said, was a land grab and they wanted the assets as well to line their thieving oligarch pockets. Their "intelligence" told them that they would be welcomed with open arms so they drove in expecting that welcome. The Kyiv thrust even had their ceremonial uniforms with them! Their intelligence turned out to be the first part of their stupidity as it was wrong like everything else they have done in this illegal war.

If they had managed to take over the country by decapitating the leadership it is likely that we would have been funding an insurgency now rather than an outright war. That would have been less damaging to the infrastructure of the country but quite possible it would have involved more deaths of Russian troops and policemen. Rather than uniting Ukraine as the war has done it might have split the country ethnically. We would still have been spending a lot of money and the sanctions would have been in place so the world would have been suffering. We might also be looking at Russian troops in Moldova and on the borders of the Eastern European members of NATO ready to walk in. A wider conflict would have been more likely as Putin would have been emboldened by his success. Hopefully the thrashing that Russia has received will make them less likely to come back later and try again.

And all this is down to Putin and his cronies and Putin and cronies only. It is their stated desire to reinstate the Soviet Empire which is the root cause of this war and that alone. The only blame that the west might be liable for in the current situation would be not getting involved and openly supporting and supplying Ukraine to beat back the Russians in the Donbas and Crimea in 2014.

[Vortex2]

CIA director meets Russia’s top spy chief for secret Ukraine talks

This seems to confirm who the two main parties in this conflict are.

[BritDownUnder]

I think the Russians misjudged how much NATO had trained the Ukraine armed forces since 2014. And the level of resistance put up by the defenders of Kiev. I would say the Ukrainians neglected their Southern front and are paying the price for it now in the grinding action around Kherson.

If the Russians had been able to conquer Ukraine quickly there probably would have been 200,000 deaths. Just that they would have been nearly all Ukrainian civilian deaths instead of being Russian conscripts. Maybe a form of partisan warfare like in the Russian movie "Come and See"

An interesting story from Sky News is that a Zambian national previously held in a Russian prison for a crime sentenced in 2020 has ended up dead fighting in the Russian army in Ukraine.

On the fighting I think it will be hard for Ukraine to cross the Dnieper river at Kherson so this are will probably resort to being an artillery duel. No doubt the NATO forces can use this as a test bed for new artillery technology using Russian soldiers/Syrian Mercenaries/African prisoners as guinea pigs for their latest technology. Maybe the main actions will now move to another part of the front.

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine has already crossed the Dnieper river. They have crossed into the Kilburn peninsula south of Kherson using speedboats, and are fighting to gain a bridgehead on the peninsula. If they can take the peninsula, which Russia clearly failed to build or man sufficient defences, then they will only need to defend a short front line of 10 or 20 miles, well within the range of their artillery support, and they will be a thorn in the side of the Russian lines needing a lot of troops to stop a breakout, which cannot be deployed elsewhere.

Another excellent breakout move, if it pays off.

[UndercoverElephant]

CIA director meets Russia’s top spy chief for secret Ukraine talks

This seems to confirm who the two main parties in this conflict are.

source?

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukraine has already crossed the Dnieper river. They have crossed into the Kilburn peninsula

Kinburn. Kilburn is in North London.