Ukraine Watch...

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BritDownUnder
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by BritDownUnder »

clv101 wrote: 28 Oct 2022, 23:25
BritDownUnder wrote: 28 Oct 2022, 22:31 As for the satellites I think it will take one launch/one missile to destroy each satellite and the Russians can hardly manage more than a hundred of them a year. China is the one to worry about in this area I think.
The Starfish Prime test showed how a high altitude thermonuclear detonation can take out satellites. One interesting point wrt to WW3 is that the west gets far greater *relative* advantage from things like satellites, under sea fibre optics, international trade in energy and minerals etc.

In a 'last man standing' conflict it would be rational for Russia to nuke *all* the satellites, cut the cables, blow the pipelines, sink the ships etc. The west has more to lose, 'we' won't be able to cope with revisiting the 'stone age' as well as the Russians.
I wasn't thinking of nuclear attacks on satellites but by all means bring it on. Chindian satellites might get affected by this as well, as well as the country that is directly underneath the high altitude detonation. Maybe the US satellites are hardened against such effects rather than the 1962 technology satellites.
I am pretty sure that members of the US congress have said that an EMP attack will be considered a nuclear attack on the US and responded to accordingly. I think a few nuclear depth charges on those pesky Russian subs that are threatening the LNG carriers would be a good starting response.

Indeed the West has more to lose than Russia but if you are in Norilsk in the middle of a Siberian winter and a cruise missile takes out the district heating system/power station you might not survive in the Soviet era apartment blocks. Russia has quite a few vulnerable gas production sites in Yamal and Sakhalin that they are counting on for some hard cash or artillery shells or microchips. Russia is also quite reliant on railways rather than roads as their Kerch bridge tantrums show and blow a few bridges over the Volga/Ob etc and some locks on their canals and they might start feeling the heat.

Personally I think with all these empty sounding threats from Russia, after all any country helping Ukraine in any was going to get nuked, Finland and Sweden were going to get nuked for joining NATO, the UK should by now have been nuked several times, we can discount them. As a way of showing seriousness the West should probably begin underground nuclear testing again just to make sure the arsenal is in tip top condition. Also regular nuclear drills might have some effect. If you want to get frightened by empty rhetoric from a kleptocrat then be my guest and apply for a job at the Foreign Office. I'll be doing the gardening and maybe go to the beach.
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PS_RalphW
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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In actual news there are reports of blasts in Sevastopol harbour, suspected to be submarine drone strikes on the Russian navy, possibly including the re assigned flag ship after the previous one was sunk. If true, this will be another symbolic strike to embarrass Putin, but since the fleet has been hiding in port for months, of little strategic advantage at this time.
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Vortex2
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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I think a few nuclear depth charges on those pesky Russian subs that are threatening the LNG carriers would be a good starting response.
FWIW a standard homing topedo is as effective as a nuclear depth charge.
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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Britain’s Royal Navy played a part in orchestrating and staging the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday. The accusation follows the Russian Foreign Ministry’s claim that NATO conducted a military exercise during the summer, close to the location where the undersea explosions occurred.
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by kenneal - lagger »

Vortex2 wrote: 29 Oct 2022, 12:59
Britain’s Royal Navy played a part in orchestrating and staging the sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday. The accusation follows the Russian Foreign Ministry’s claim that NATO conducted a military exercise during the summer, close to the location where the undersea explosions occurred.
I had a good laugh at that one. Putin is really trying hard to frighten us but I don't think the average Brit has noticed.

General Petraeus has been quoted as saying that through "back channels" the US has agreed with the Russian nuclear forces command that no nukes will be used at the present time. Now whether that is true or whether it is a device to get Putin to hollow out his own nuclear force command and control system is debatable.
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PS_RalphW
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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Also Russia accuses UK operatives of assisting in todays attack on the Black Sea fleet at harbour. Russia claims one ship was damaged. I am waiting for independent assessment of how many were sunk, although being in harbour recovery is probably possible.

Update

Video released from on board the surface drones themselves. Three appear to strike ship targets, one clearly identified as the flagship. Other video clips show drones being fired at and presumably destroyed before hitting their targets.

Unconfirmed reports of several boats or warships damaged, one small boat sunk.

Probably not militarily significant, but another embarrassment for Putin.

Putin has suspended the grain export deal. That wil not please Turkey.
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BritDownUnder
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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Interesting story of recent exposures of Russkie deep cover agents from the Grauniad.
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BritDownUnder
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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PS_RalphW wrote: 29 Oct 2022, 14:47 Putin has suspended the grain export deal. That will not please Turkey.
Foreign leaders are either useful idiots, kompromats, vassals or enemies in the eyes of Russia. Erdogan frequently switches between the first three options at various times. Quite how the Turks elected, and keep electing, someone so stupid as their President is beyond me. I suppose on the face of it having a few foreign policy wins in Syria obscures the broken economy.
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PS_RalphW
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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Proposal to restart UN monitored shipments out of Ukraine without Russian agreement. This is calling Putin's bluff to sink a grain carrier, and risk having the UN (read: US) enter the war on Ukraine's side directly.

12 ships sailed from Odessa on Monday. These had already agreed insurance before Russia 'suspended' the agreement. There may need to be government backed insurance for future shipments.
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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Kim DotCom:

How do the Russians know that the UK blew up the North Stream pipelines in partnership with the US?

Because @trussliz used her iPhone to send a message to @SecBlinken saying “It’s done” a minute after the pipeline blew up and before anybody else knew?

iCloud admin access rocks!

3:11 PM · Oct 30, 2022
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PS_RalphW
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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And you call that evidence?
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by kenneal - lagger »

Did anyone else watch the BBC program on internet trolls last night? Seems some people will believe anything they are told which opposes the main stream thought on principle. No evidence needed at all, in fact a lack of evidence seems to make the lie truer!!
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

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And you call that evidence?
I didn't call it anything.

It's a story which has appeared.
It's probably as valid (or invalid) as anything the mass media puts out.
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by Vortex2 »

kenneal - lagger wrote: 01 Nov 2022, 18:48 Did anyone else watch the BBC program on internet trolls last night? Seems some people will believe anything they are told which opposes the main stream thought on principle. No evidence needed at all, in fact a lack of evidence seems to make the lie truer!!
"In war, truth is the first casualty" - Aeschylus

If you blindly believe the media about this - or any other - war then you need to get out more.
The UK has been flooded with pro-Ukrainian propaganda since Day One of the conflict.
The BBC and surprisingly the Daily Telegraph have been rabidly anti-Russia.

This war didn't emerge from nowhere .. but none of the public media ever suggest this.
Clearly Mr Putin woke up one morning, felt grumpy, picked up the phone and ordered an imediate invasion of Ukraine.
I haven't noticed any discussion of the 8 years of shelling of the Russian speaking section of Ukraine by their central government.
The fact that Ukraine was officially the most corrupt nation in Europe prior to the war has never been mentioned either.

How many of those with Ukrainian flags in their windows, or Ukrainian avatars on their social media have ever heard of the Euromaidan protests?
Or even know where Ukraine is?

As for Russia posing a threat to the whole of Europe? I think not.
They can hardly sustain a war in the East of Ukraine let alone in the Baltic States or in Gemany or France.

The main problem seems to be that Ukraine has two parts : a pro-EU West and a pro-Russia East.
The languges in use reflect this.

Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 recognised that the Donbass could be regarded as self-governing federated parts of Ukraine.
Sadly the Minsk 2 agreement collapsed leading to continued conflict beween the government and the Donbass.

It's a very long and complicated story .. and most Brits have no clue that it exists.
Thye are fed a biased diet of one-dimensional crap and respond in a Pavlovian manner, as intended.
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by clv101 »

Vortex2 wrote: 01 Nov 2022, 19:43It's a very long and complicated story.
Absolutely! Anyone promoting a simplistic narrative is doing themselves a disservice, and contributing to the going dumbing down of public discourse.
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