Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

I was thinking that having large numbers of cheap mechanically guided drones would be a good "dead-hand" weapon for the UK in the event of a large Russian nuclear attack to fly over Russia spreading radioactive materials from Sellafield all over their best land.

Some of the posts here worry me.

[Vortex2]

This system was supposedly designed as a replacement to the Sidewinder missile that the Russians got hold of in a very unusual way. A Taiwanese aircraft used on to try to shoot down a Red China airforce plane but it got stuck in the plane and didn’t explode giving the Russians a copy.

The story of that theft is a bit more boring I believe.
Many, many years ago East German agents simply drove into a US base and stole a Sidewinder AIM9L from the flight line.
They drove it back to East Germany wrapped in a carpet.

(Flight lines were totally insecure until fairly recently. I once strolled along a row of Blackhawks at a US base without being stopped.
Nowadays you cant get anywhere near a US base in Germany due to mega fences etc. Some are also protected by Patriot batteries)

[clv101]

I was thinking that having large numbers of cheap mechanically guided drones would be a good "dead-hand" weapon for the UK in the event of a large Russian nuclear attack to fly over Russia spreading radioactive materials from Sellafield all over their best land.

Some of the posts here worry me.

Indeed, our man down under does hold some peculiarly destructive views. Under zero circumstances is contaminating cropland with radioactive material every a good idea.

[kenneal - lagger]

I would have thought that the weapons system that most warships now use for close in air and seaborne defence, CIWS I think it is called, a fast firing Gatling gun or multiple guns combined with an integrated radar system, would be the most economic to use against the Iranian drones. Several thousand rounds per minute is quite cheap compared to a guided missile of any sort.

On the matter of Kherson, it worried me a lot. The Russians are now talking of completely evacuating the area of military and civilians so that when the Ukrainians take it over it will only have Ukrainian troops in quite a large area. The Russians are talking about a nuclear response to any area of Russian being attacked and they have declared Kherson to be Russian. This would be the ideal area then for Russians to use a tactical nuclear weapon on a concentration of Ukrainian troops without too many civilians or Russian troops getting in the way. They can also claim that they haven't used a nuclear weapon on a foreign country.

[PS_RalphW]

The problem of using a gatling style anti aircraft gun around land based targets, is that most of them are in built up areas, and having thousands of pieces of hot lead falling out of the sky is often more lethal than the missile or drone which is being targeted.

I do not think Putin will risk tactical nukes, he knows that would cause a huge backlash from the more neutral powers like India and China, and would open the floodgates of Western weaponry onto his own forces.

[kenneal - lagger]

Let's hope that he is thinking that logically.

[Vortex2]

On the matter of Kherson, it worried me a lot. The Russians are now talking of completely evacuating the area of military and civilians so that when the Ukrainians take it over it will only have Ukrainian troops in quite a large area.

The Russians are resettling the 60k-80k residents.

i assume that they realise that Kerson City will soon be rubble.

[PS_RalphW]

They are removing the population, it is not clear how much choice the population have, some will want to leave, many have clearly stated they do not. Forced relocation is not new to Ukraine, they suffered it multiple times under Stalin, it destroys cultures and crushes communities and that is the objective here. Putin wants to remove the Ukrainian people and replace them with loyal Russian people. He wants to expand his empire by simply taking land and kicking out the occupants and giving it to his loyal subjects.

Putin has declared martial law presumably to give him the right to do this by force.

[Vortex2]

It seems like NATO is aiding the Ukrainains.

It seems that NATO is pushing Zelensky to try to take Kherson ...

Russian radar sites etc are now under attack .. and yesterday NATO (UK) aircraft were carrying out electronic intelligence patrols in the Black Sea.
Our defence minister has also had urgent meetings in the US.

Meanwhile Russia is about to do something special : total war?

The next week or so should be interesting.

I know I should have ordered that Geiger counter off Amerzen ...

[kenneal - lagger]

.................
Meanwhile Russia is about to do something special : total war?
.............

Something special???

Don't you mean something specially awful?

Meanwhile Russia is using the evacuation of the civilian population as a cover for the evacuation of their troops. They are using the population as human shields to get ferries across the river unharmed.

They are not resettling the population, Russia is kidnapping them. The population made their feelings about the Russians very plain when the Russians first rolled in. They didn't like then and they didn't want them. They are hardly going to want to be resettled away from their homes.

[BritDownUnder]

Perhaps he (Vortex) means total special military operation not just the half assed Russian version to date. I think I we had followed his advice on not doing anything Putin tells us not to do, the UK and rest of Western Europe would have been speaking Russian a long time ago. There is a top job in the Foreign Office waiting for him with that kind of surrender mentality.

Russia is a Century old enemy of the UK and most of Europe, that has made a grave misjudgment in Ukraine and now is the time to punish them very severely. Given the Russian mentality this means killing lots of them before they adjust their attitude. Finland needed to kill 250,000 in 1939/40 to retain their independence and then fight them to a standstill in 1944. The Japanese killed a similar number and wiped out their fleet (actually two of their fleets) in 1905 to stop them expanding in the East and taking Korea and Manchuria.

About these Russian radar sites under attack? Where, with what and by whom? I certainly hope so. And their power grid too.

[kenneal - lagger]

I think the only new thing about NATO/British surveillance aircraft operating around Russia is that they now have a fighter escort. We have been providing intelligence to our Ukrainian friends since long before the conflict started, probably since 2014 when we started training Ukrainian troops. We have been operating surveillance flights since the aircraft became available so nothing new there. Russia does the same to us.

Putin has told us directly that it is his ambition to reinstate the Soviet Empire and Make Russia Great Again - where have we heard the likes of that before? -and Ukraine is his first push in this direction so how can anyone have any sympathy with Russia in this unless they are happy to live under the Russian heal?

[kenneal - lagger]

Russia is now crying foul over the arrest of five Russians for sanctions busting, buying up micro chips for Russian weapons manufacture, including one who is the son of a top Russian official. They are saying it has been done to threaten Russians so they are making threats back!

Better than threatening people with nuclear weapons I suppose!

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/moscow-says-u ... 16961.html

[PS_RalphW]

Reports that Russia has begun withdrawing forces and equipment from Kherson using the dam bridge and a pontoon bridge built under the Antanov bridge. Also with ferries. Ukraine attacked the pontoon bridge with missiles, which Russia claims killed 3 civilians. Not clear if the bridge was severed, but repair would be quick.

Reportedly, the dam has been mined so that any attempt to blow the bridge there risks blowing the entire dam and flooding the entire Kherson city area. Russia needs both bridges to evacuate their troops as the west Kherson region is divided in 2 by a river, which has had every bridge blown by Ukraine. I expect the last man over the dam bridge will blow the dam and flood the valley anyway.

Very little news from the Ukrainian side, except hints of more villages recaptured.

[kenneal - lagger]

To damage the dam would require a large charge either against the wall on the wet side, as in the Dam Busters, or an even larger charge buried within the structure. Ukrainian missiles are not going to deliver a large enough charge, they only carry a couple of hundred kilos of explosive, to damage a mass concrete dam.

They can, however, carry enough explosive to damage the bridge at the top of the dam as has been seen from pictures of the Antonovski bridge downstream. They are punching small holes through reinforced concrete about 300mm thick. A dam is impervious to such small charges.

There are reports that Russian troops have been riding the ferries in civilian clothes among Ukrainian collaborators who are fleeing Kherson before it is retaken. It would seem that most Ukrainians are staying put. That suits the Russians because they can smuggle their troops out although they will be leaving much of their equipment behind. They will be quite happy to blow the dam after they have left even if civilians are still in residence and will blast them with artillery as well to cover their retreat. They are the embodiment of evil!