Gas supply crunch

[Potemkin Villager]

And despite the concerning news, natural gas prices continue to fall. Under 300 pence a therm today, high by historical standards but lower than in the recent past. Very surprising.

Yes it makes me wonder even more how the "market" actually "works".

I am sure you have been delighted to learn that Re Smug welcoming fracking in Somerset!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ack-garden

"Jacob Rees-Mogg has said he would be “delighted” for his back garden to be fracked, as he risked deepening divisions within the Conservative party by deriding those who oppose the controversial practice as “socialists”.

[PS_RalphW]

European long range weather forecasts are suggesting that la nina conditions could lead to periods of cold, low wind and dry weather, raising demand for gas.

[Vortex2]

German households and small businesses raised their natural gas consumption by 14.5% above the five-year average in the week from September 19 to 25, according to Germany’s energy regulator, the Federal Network Agency.

The Federal Network Agency noted that a reduction in consumption of at least 20% is required to avoid a gas shortage in the coming months.

[Potemkin Villager]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -email-hse

You can see how his mind works here! His constituents must love him.

" On the issue of environmental assessments for new projects, the email, written by a senior official who explains that they are relaying Rees-Mogg’s views, says using legislation to entirely remove such assessments would be a “more certain” way to proceed.

Another option raised to water down environmental scrutiny would be to “streamline” requirements from the Health and Safety Executive, with the email noting this “would speed matters up further”.

Rees-Mogg also wanted to know about other ways to accelerate approval for projects without jeopardising international obligations connected to oil and gas, and “asked specifically whether a debate in parliament, for example, counts as a public consultation”, the note added."

[automaticearth2]

Looks like I was wrong about why Putin piled into Ukraine (I said that he wanted to control approximately 23% of the world's grain production). Turned out that he was after Ukraine's 'untapped gas reserves'.

[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/20 ... gy-europe/]

[adam2]

Natural gas prices continue to fall, under 200 pence a therm today. This is still about 5 times the historically expected price, but still a lot cheaper than I would have expected. And a lot lower than recent prices.
Winter is still approaching, no sign of peace with russia, and french nuclear production remains severely restricted.

All very odd.

[Vortex2]

All very odd.

We have incomplete information - but the market doesn't.

* Maybe a new gas source such as Holland is about to come on line?

* Or maybe the surviving Nordstream 2 pipe will be coming on line?
(Perhaps Germany is about to 'roll over'?)

* Or maybe a peace deal is almost complete?

* Or maybe Putin is about to be kicked out, either by peacemakers in Russia .. or via a massive US attack/threats/blackmail?

* Or maybe winter is expected to be tropical this year?

[clv101]

Europe is *full*, LNG is circling the ports. Next few weeks are expected to be very warm.
There really shouldn't be a major gas problem in Europe this winter.

[Vortex2]

Europe’s ongoing massive intervention into the liquefied natural gas trade has become a global problem as dozens of LNG tankers linger offshore for days or even weeks at a time waiting to be allowed to come into the continent’s limited number of regassification facilities to offload their cargoes.

It's technically true that a lot of LNG is arriving in Europe ... but in practice that LNG may not come ashore, or may be slow to off-ship.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidblack ... s-problem/

[adam2]

Well that did not last long ! Gas prices have more than doubled today to just under 400 pence a therm.

[adam2]

News report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-633 ... gn=KARANGA

About the number of LNG tankers being held at sea in the expectation of achieving higher prices.

[adam2]

UK gas storage to be reopened.
Following upgrades.
This will slightly reduce our vulnerability to supply disruptions but is by no means a cure all.
If the gas purchased to fill the storage costs say 400 pence a therm, then the gas released from the storage will cost more than 400 pence a therm, due to the operating costs of the storage facility.

However expensive gas is better than no gas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63423600

[BritDownUnder]

As a former Centrica shareholder let's hope that after being 'regulated' nearly to death by Ofgas the company is now in good enough shape to maintain Rough and get some meaningful storage out of it.

[clv101]

News report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-633 ... gn=KARANGA

About the number of LNG tankers being held at sea in the expectation of achieving higher prices.

A target rich environment, especially off the Spanish coast. A couple Russia submarines could do a lot of damage in a few days.

[BritDownUnder]

News report https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-633 ... gn=KARANGA

About the number of LNG tankers being held at sea in the expectation of achieving higher prices.

A target rich environment, especially off the Spanish coast. A couple Russia submarines could do a lot of damage in a few days.

Pity they'd have no country to go back to once they ran out of torpedoes. The nuclear blackened corpses of their relatives would make for a nice homecoming.