Conservative party/opposition watch

[UndercoverElephant]

Bank of England now warning of a "material risk to financial stability" because of Kwarteng's unfunded tax cuts. The tories are unbelievably screwed. I don't think they can fix the mess they have created. We might be looking at a Canada-style wipeout, as Nadine Dorries has warned.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63211743

[Vortex2]

We might be looking at a Canada-style wipeout

What does that entail?

[UndercoverElephant]

We might be looking at a Canada-style wipeout

What does that entail?

In 1993 the governing Conservative party in Canada was reduced from an overall majority of 169 seats to just 2. Their core support collapsed. People are saying this isn't possible in the UK, but I am not so sure. I can certainly see the tories being reduced to third or fourth place in terms of seats won. The SNP could become the official opposition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Cana ... l_election

[clv101]

Indeed, first past the post, if you live by the sword you can die by the sword. Possible for Tories still to poll ~25-30% and yet get virtually no seats. See Scotland!

[Potemkin Villager]

The SNP could become the official opposition.

I thought they were already!

[UndercoverElephant]

It looks to me like Truss's position is untenable, and that tonight it is dawning on the tory party that she is going to have to be removed in the very near future. They are now far more scared of what she is going to do next than they are about the consequences of removing her. She cannot continue like this until the end of October (when we are supposedly going to find out what The Plan is), because she has literally and totally lost control of both her party and the country. It isn't like she's made one or two mistakes that she's got two years to try to recover from - the problem is that everybody can see that she's completely unfit for high political office, and anybody who pretends otherwise looks like a fool. This country, and the tory party, are going to become the laughing stock of the world if she is allowed to continue in office, and everybody knows that everybody knows this. And we are staring down the barrel of the UK economy blowing up.

If I was a tory MP then right now I would be plotting with other tory MPs to agree to remove her from office before the end of this week and replace her immediately, without another leadership election, with Rishi Sunak.

[UndercoverElephant]

Nadine Dorries calls for a general election in the Telegraph: https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... lection%2F#

And she backed Truss in the leadership election. Still think I am being naive, AnotherExLurker?

I don't think naive is a strong enough word to sum up your complete lack of understanding of the situation.
Its very clear to me that you are still in la la land , but I'm not wasting any more of my time trying to explain what should be bleeding obvious.

Lets see in say 3 months time who is correct, I still stick by my statement that rather than vote for a general election the current Tory MP's are much more likely to throw Truss under a bus and try something else. Truss might still be leader in 3 months time as currently the various shots across the bow
seem to be having the desired affect.

Robert Peston:

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/15802 ... mAFqA&s=19

A member of Truss's own cabinet tells me Truss's and Kwarteng's governance is so dire that some Tory MPs would vote against her in a confidence vote, preferring even a general election that cost them their seats to the current economic chaos

Still think I am naive?

[anotherexlurker]

Completely

[UndercoverElephant]

Completely

So you think Robert Peston is lying?

[UndercoverElephant]

Media keep saying Kwarteng has become the second shortest serving chancellor in UK history. This is a bit misleading because the shortest - Iain Macleod in 1970 - unexpectedly died 30 days after being appointed. And in third place? Nadhim Zahawi, earlier this year, who lost the job because his boss resigned.

[UndercoverElephant]

Telegraph calling for Truss to go, and a Labour government.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... ave-now%2F

We are where we are. Since the Conservative Party cannot agree on a short-term macroeconomic policy, a long-term growth strategy, or a fiscal consolidation plan, it ought now to step aside and allow Labour to have a go. We are in tough economic times and a Tory Party so utterly divided is not up to the task. Whether there will ever again be another Tory government must now be in question.

[BritDownUnder]

The arrogance! The ignorance!

I would like to see an eco-nationalist government in the UK.
Environment and green power get the first bite of the cherry. No money goes overseas unless absolutely necessary.

[kenneal - lagger]

If no money goes overseas those overseas who were receiving that money will come here to get a slice of the cake. It's far cheaper to keep people where they are, both monetarily and environmentally, than let them come here to get their fair share of the goodies of life.

[automaticearth2]

It's certainly looking like a right mess for the Tories. It's being said that KK never wanted to go for the tax cuts in the mini budget as fast as what had happened. Apparently it was Truss who wanted these to happen quickly. Now we've got *unt pretty much at the helm. Nigel Farage is now talking about returning to front line politics. I think a Labour government is pretty much guaranteed.

[UndercoverElephant]

Completely

General election is now looking like the most likely outcome. Truss will be gone by the end of next week, and the obvious replacement is Sunak. Sunak then has to choose between trying to limp through 2 years of painful political choices or taking advantage of a slight honeymoon effect and the credit given to him for "doing the right thing" by trying to get a mandate for those choices. Limping on is not a rational choice -- not when he's only got 2 years and the economy is in its current state. On top of that, if he tries to limp on then there's a very real risk that 30, 40 or even 50 tory MPs decide to cross the floor and join the Labour Party on condition that they are allowed to contest their seats for Labour. Sunak wouldn't even be expected to win the election. He would be given credit just for avoiding a wipeout and then he'll have five years as leader of the opposition to try to sort the tories out in preparation for an election in the summer of 2027. If I was Sunak, then I would make an early election a condition of taking over the leadership in the current situation. The alternative will be for him to lead the tories into utter oblivion.