Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

Sounds most unlikely to me.

[BritDownUnder]

Sounds most unlikely to me.

Sounds about par for the course for some posters on here. Russian propaganda or any hearsay utterance that fits the narrative is automatically truth - everything else is to be doubted.

“War is peace.
Freedom is slavery.
Ignorance is strength.”

[adam2]

I stand by my remark that the alleged news about turning an existing NHS hospital into a miliitary hospital being most unlikely. Nothing to do with propaganda. If true, this would be a major news story, yet NO recognised print or broadcast media has published it.
And no I do not believe that it can be kept secret.

[adam2]

Russia claims victory in sham referenda. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63052207

[BritDownUnder]

I stand by my remark that the alleged news about turning an existing NHS hospital into a miliitary hospital being most unlikely. Nothing to do with propaganda. If true, this would be a major news story, yet NO recognised print or broadcast media has published it.
And no I do not believe that it can be kept secret.

I would be interested in what preparations would need to be made to do this. Whether the hospital needs to be marked as a medical facility (say red crosses painted on the roof), UN and Russians duly informed (whether Russia could be trusted to honour any agreement anymore is a matter of debate), what types of injuries would be treated here whether gunshot, blast injuries, chemical weapons, nuclear or radiation injuries, civilian casualties or only military.
Also whether only British casualties would be treated, or all NATO or Ukrainians? Maybe even Russian POWs or even doing a gas-for-medi-care agreement with Russia when the UK runs short of gas to treat Russian billionaires?

I recall during the Falklands conflict the cruise ship Uganda was used as a medical ship and stationed in an area of sea called the Red Cross Box that the Argentines did not attack to treat casualties.

[Vortex2]

If true, it will be the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports that Ukraine is slowly encircling Lyman, said to be of strategic importance in the northern Donetsk region. This has been under attack for weeks, but now Russian commentators are asking if it is time to withdraw before significant numbers of troops are captured or killed.

[adam2]

Ukraine has asked for "fast track" NATO membership.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports are now saying that between 1000 and 5000 Russian and pro Russian troops are more or less trapped in Lyman. The only exit road is straight with no cover and now in clear artillery and mortar range and Ukrainian troops just a few miles both north and south of it. The next town east also appears to be cut off.

How long before they surrender?

Updated

Lyman now appears to be in Ukrainian control. It is not clear how many troops were captured or if all retreated. Most of them were Ukrainian separatist batallians and were reportedly refused permission to retreat, so I am not sure what happened to them. I suspect a lot of misinformation and fog of war on both sides.

[adam2]

Reports that Ukraine is slowly encircling Lyman, said to be of strategic importance in the northern Donetsk region. This has been under attack for weeks, but now Russian commentators are asking if it is time to withdraw before significant numbers of troops are captured or killed.

Now confirmed that Lyman is back under Ukrainian control.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-63100522

It is not clear what happened to the russians. Killed ? Surrendered ?

[adam2]

If true, it will be the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham.

Not true, a simple internet search will show that the hospital is operating normally. Cancellations no greater than normal, no red crosses painted on the roof.

[PS_RalphW]

There is still a lot of uncertainty about what happened to the Russian troops, Russia claims they retreated to avoid entrapment, but there are reports of many killed and some prisoners and some fighting still going on. Probably some retreated whilst under heavy fire. More will become clearer tomorrow, I expect to see large amounts of hardware destroyed or captured. Again.

[clv101]

If NATO keeps pouring more and more equipment, intelligence and training into Ukraine, the Russian army can be forced out. It'll be hard won - especially as a significant fraction, almost certainly the majority in these regions are pro-Russian (the 2014 elections showed overwhelming support for pro-Russian candidates). Does defeating the actual Russian army end the civil war though?

Who thinks the Russian army will be either destroyed in Ukraine or fully retreat back to Russia? If such a result is achieved, and Ukraine rebuilds - they would have a capability to invade Russia!? The world's largest nuclear armed state surely won't allow a well armed, NATO-supported, on track to membership Ukraine to exit. As much of a catastrophe for Russia this war has already been - the NATO victory is unacceptable and they have the power to prevent it - a couple dozen of tactical nuclear bombs (1-5 kt) would end this, and prevent (in Russia's eyes) the worse outcome of a NATO victory in Ukraine.

I can't see us 'simply' beating back Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield and that being the end of the story. Putin's Russia isn't Hussein's Iraq!

How does a NATO victory work?

[BritDownUnder]

If true, it will be the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham.

Not true, a simple internet search will show that the hospital is operating normally. Cancellations no greater than normal, no red crosses painted on the roof.

As someone, maybe Mark Twain, maybe not, said

A Lie Can Travel Halfway Around the World While the Truth Is Putting On Its Shoes

However, according to Wikipedia. It already is a military hospital. Whether this military part will expand to encompass civilian part remains to be seen.

The hospital has the largest single-floor critical care unit in the world with 100 beds, and is the home of the Royal Centre for Defence Medicine for military personnel injured in conflict zones.

[BritDownUnder]

If NATO keeps pouring more and more equipment, intelligence and training into Ukraine, the Russian army can be forced out. It'll be hard won - especially as a significant fraction, almost certainly the majority in these regions are pro-Russian (the 2014 elections showed overwhelming support for pro-Russian candidates). Does defeating the actual Russian army end the civil war though?

Who thinks the Russian army will be either destroyed in Ukraine or fully retreat back to Russia? If such a result is achieved, and Ukraine rebuilds - they would have a capability to invade Russia!? The world's largest nuclear armed state surely won't allow a well armed, NATO-supported, on track to membership Ukraine to exit. As much of a catastrophe for Russia this war has already been - the NATO victory is unacceptable and they have the power to prevent it - a couple dozen of tactical nuclear bombs (1-5 kt) would end this, and prevent (in Russia's eyes) the worse outcome of a NATO victory in Ukraine.

I can't see us 'simply' beating back Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield and that being the end of the story. Putin's Russia isn't Hussein's Iraq!

How does a NATO victory work?

I don't see a quick end and I think both sides are happy with this. The West wants to make it Russia's "Vietnam" and Russia wanting to win the Energy war that is parallel to the shooting war.

Whether the elections of 2014 voting for pro-Russian candidates indicates desire to be part of Russia might be debatable once they have experienced Russian occupation in 2022.

This interesting Wikipedia article on Ukrainian demographics shows that the areas Russia is still occupying are the most Russian speaking but that's the only good news for them. The bad news is Ukrainian speakers have a significantly higher birthrate than Russian speakers, indeed the death rate of Luhansk and Donetsk exceed the birth rate by the widest margin in all Ukraine. This effect is not confined to Ukraine. Russians in Kazakhstan have lost the demographic and political race there too going from a near plurality in 1989 to 20% of the population now, and even in Russia itself non-Russians are growing in number due to higher birthrates and immigration of non-Russians. Moscow is supposedly already a majority Muslim city. There were certainly plenty of Central Asians there when I was there in 2010. Note that closer to home this effect has delivered a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland this year.

Percentage of Russian language speakers in Ukraine.



Percentage of Ukrainian language speakers in Ukraine.



I recently met a Hungarian speaking person born in Ukraine who said they could not speak either Russian or Ukrainian but they did leave for Australia aged 11.

I expect the Russians will lose all of Kherson region and be lucky is they can hold onto a land corridor linking Crimea to Russia proper.

It ends with Ukraine in NATO, and NATO tactical nuclear missiles situated North of Kharkiv a mere 470 km as the crow flies from Moscow just to remind Putin of his historic threats. Russia does get to control all the Sea of Azov though and an exclusive deal with China to sell oil to them at $30 a barrel.