Is the mini budget a recipe for doom?

[kenneal - lagger]

On current policies I would vote Labour. But as above I will have to see what happens at the time of the general election.

[UndercoverElephant]

So...poll last night put Labour 17 points ahead. Politically it feels like 1995, when the tories had completely run out of ideas and everybody knew Labour was going to win the next election and the only question was the size of the majority.

[UndercoverElephant]

If a general election is not called/forced for another 2 years then a lot could have changed (I hope to be living in a different constituency for one), at that point I would way up the local candidates , the party leaders and their polices at the time.

I don't think the tories are going to become any more electable in the next two years. They need some time in opposition to sort themselves out.

[Potemkin Villager]

The IMF have waded in now! There was a Torygraph hack on one of the
newspaper reviews tonight shitting bricks about it all and looking as
if he had just seen the fnords. It looks like there is there is some sort of end game
at hand. Fascinating, looks like the tory party imploding in full public view.

[kenneal - lagger]

From the reports of the Labour conference I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour at the next election. First time ever!

[BritDownUnder]

From the reports of the Labour conference I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour at the next election. First time ever!

I was interested to see Ed (I think it was) Milliband talking in his conference speech about the lack of energy preparedness that the UK has taken since 2010. He did not say though that his government was not much better when they could have started a few Sizewell B clones, built some high efficiency coal power plants but did not really do anything other than going on about "Cool Britannia".

My father once said to me, and I have kept to it til this day, "Never Ever Vote Labour".

[Stumuz2]

From the reports of the Labour conference I am going to hold my nose and vote Labour at the next election. First time ever!

Two years is a long time Ken! Things might smell a bit sweeter by then.

We all know that the ever expansionist state is coming to an end, could it be Truss has been the first out of the traps and publicly admit it?
We have seen the howls coming out of the poorer country impoverishing IMF.

Corrupt give a triple AAA to Northern Rock MOODYS also came out swinging for higher taxes so big finance's bonds and gilts would be worth more.

As politicians are vote tarts, I expect to see an increase in interest rates for the next six months by the US, so pre election, they can slash rates and switch on QE infinity. All the current gyrations are being caused by the Triffin dilemma.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

So you may never have to go over to the dark side Ken!

[Stumuz2]

My father once said to me, and I have kept to it til this day, "Never Ever Vote Labour".

Very sensible man. I take it he worked for a living?

[Stumuz2]

I expect to see an increase in interest rates for the next six months by the US, so pre election, they can slash rates and switch on QE infinity. All the current gyrations are being caused by the Triffin dilemma.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

And one hour later!!!!!!!

The Bank of England has been forced to step into bond markets amid market turmoil that has sent government borrowing costs soaring.

The central bank has delayed plans to sell bonds and will start buying them instead to stabilise what it described as “dysfunctional markets”.

It said: “Were dysfunction in this market to continue or worsen, there would be a material risk to UK financial stability.”

The Bank didn’t give a figure on the size of the purchases but said they will be carried out on “whatever scale is necessary”.

[UndercoverElephant]

The IMF have waded in now! There was a Torygraph hack on one of the
newspaper reviews tonight shitting bricks about it all and looking as
if he had just seen the fnords. It looks like there is there is some sort of end game
at hand. Fascinating, looks like the tory party imploding in full public view.

Political parties sometimes get themselves into a such a mess that it is totally impossible for them to sort themselves out while remaining in power. They have to spend some time in opposition. That's where the tories were in 1997, and they are back there now. The tory party will recover, but I think it will take them at least a decade.

For me the big unknown is what happens between now and the next GE, because unlike 1997 they have a very solid majority. But it already looks doubtful that Truss and Kwarteng can survive 18 months.

[UndercoverElephant]

I expect to see an increase in interest rates for the next six months by the US, so pre election, they can slash rates and switch on QE infinity. All the current gyrations are being caused by the Triffin dilemma.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

And one hour later!!!!!!!

The Bank of England has been forced to step into bond markets amid market turmoil that has sent government borrowing costs soaring.

So let's see....we now have the BoE printing money in order to buy government bonds in order to fund tax cuts for the rich. At a time when all non-rich people are terrified about their own finances, and the people being hit hardest of all are working people with large mortgages to pay off. Oh, and high interest rates may cause a collapse in the housing market, so the asset those mortgages are on are likely to be tanking in value at the same time as the mortgage payments double.

This is entirely self-inflicted (by the tories), and is both insane and utterly immoral.

[Stumuz2]

The Bank of England has been forced to step into bond markets amid market turmoil that has sent government borrowing costs soaring.

So let's see....we now have the BoE printing money in order to buy government bonds in order to fund tax cuts for the rich. At a time when all non-rich people are terrified about their own finances, and the people being hit hardest of all are working people with large mortgages to pay off. Oh, and high interest rates may cause a collapse in the housing market, so the asset those mortgages are on are likely to be tanking in value at the same time as the mortgage payments double.

Not quite. The QE was switched on to save the pension funds.

" The Pensions Regulator has welcomed the Bank of England's intervention in bond markets and said it's monitoring the situation closely.
The Bank was forced to step in following warnings of an imminent crisis in UK pensions"

So the QE was for the pensioners. So most of the middle class.

As for collapsing house prices, this is urgently needed. It will be a good thing. Especially for the young. Anyone who has bought a house in the last six months of insane house price growth has lost money. Houseprices are largely based on mortgage multiples. So if you could afford 600K 6 months ago, you can now only afford 425K. Soon to be 300K. A good thing.

This is entirely self-inflicted (by the tories), and is both insane and utterly immoral.

What's immoral about reducing tax? Tax is just theft with menaces. What was immoral was not getting payback for your investments. I.e Teachers sacked if pupils don't achieve a certain level, all period officers returned to active duty, diversity officers sacked, 20% of the civil service sacked and asked to reapply for their jobs after one year. Only if the public noticed the lack of the 20% would anyone be rehired. etc etc etc.

Something had to be done about tax. It was at a post war high, and we hadn't fought a war.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Bank of England has been forced to step into bond markets amid market turmoil that has sent government borrowing costs soaring.

So let's see....we now have the BoE printing money in order to buy government bonds in order to fund tax cuts for the rich. At a time when all non-rich people are terrified about their own finances, and the people being hit hardest of all are working people with large mortgages to pay off. Oh, and high interest rates may cause a collapse in the housing market, so the asset those mortgages are on are likely to be tanking in value at the same time as the mortgage payments double.

Not quite. The QE was switched on to save the pension funds.

" The Pensions Regulator has welcomed the Bank of England's intervention in bond markets and said it's monitoring the situation closely.
The Bank was forced to step in following warnings of an imminent crisis in UK pensions"

So the QE was for the pensioners. So most of the middle class.

Erm...but the whole situation only occurred because the government decided to make an unfunded tax giveaway to the rich. So the root cause of this is a tax giveaway to the rich not "pensions". We need to be quite clear what is going on here, and not just look at proximate causes while conveniently ignoring root causes.

As for collapsing house prices, this is urgently needed. It will be a good thing.

Not for tory voters with large mortgages it won't.

Anyone who has bought a house in the last six months of insane house price growth has lost money.

I have bought a house in the last six months, but have not "lost money". In effect I/we sold three properties (or bits of) and bought one. The properties we sold were just as overpriced as the one we bought. So you only "lose money" if you bought with a mortgage.

This is entirely self-inflicted (by the tories), and is both insane and utterly immoral.

What's immoral about reducing tax?

That was explained in the IMF's rebuke to Kwarteng. What is immoral is reducing taxes on the very rich when the bottom half of society cannot afford to live at all.

You are almost as bad as he is. No morality whatsoever. "I'm alright Jack, f*ck you." Tory through and through.

[Stumuz2]

Point1. QE was restarted because of pensions.= Fact.
Point 2. Collapsing house prices would be a panacea=Fact. Giving young people their future back.
Point 3. Tax is bad for an economy. The poor rarely pay it, or very little, in effect net takers, the well off, or financially responsible as it was called before the woke decided it was a bad thing to be self reliant.
Point 4. Didn't you run away from your community because you didn't trust them when things turn sticky? I'm alright jack syndrome writ large.
Point 5. When you finish a reply with abuse, your argument flops. Like a floppy thing on floppy day.

[UndercoverElephant]

Point1. QE was restarted because of pensions.= Fact.

Nonsense. Had the "mini budget" not happened, then QE would not have been restarted. Hence QE was restarted because of the mini-budget. Your sophistry won't work.

Point 3. Tax is bad for an economy. The poor rarely pay it, or very little, in effect net takers, the well off, or financially responsible as it was called before the woke decided it was a bad thing to be self reliant.

So you don't believe in state education, state funded health services or basic welfare provision?

The ideology you are espousing belongs in the Victorian era. You'd bring back the workhouses.

Point 4. Didn't you run away from your community because you didn't trust them when things turn sticky? I'm alright jack syndrome writ large.

No. I didn't run away from a community. I moved to somewhere with much lower property prices because I was no longer restricted to staying in south-east England to earn money. It is not the community's fault that south-east England is overpopulated.

Point 5. When you finish a reply with abuse, your argument flops. Like a floppy thing on floppy day.

It is not "abuse" to say somebody is morally deficient.