Ukraine Watch...

[mr brightside]

I liked the bit where he said he definitely wasn't bluffing.

[BritDownUnder]

Did he have his finger in his mouth at the time?

[Vortex2]

The enemy appears to be committing their reserves.

There are many more available for callup.

[BritDownUnder]

The enemy appears to be committing their reserves.

There are many more available for callup.

Some more willing than others it seems.



About 27 million more perhaps?

I visited their war memorial museum in Moscow, with a guide obviously as my AO level Russian was a bit rusty. They have Stalin's famous order "Not one step back" featuring prominently.

One difference between the Australian War Memorial and the Russian one is that the names of the Russian dead are not listed on the wall - there are too many of them and would require a very large wall - they are listed in books, lots of books, phone book size and size of text in glass cases.

[adam2]

There seems to be a rush to escape from russia, not only by air as earlier reported, but across the land border into Finland.

[Catweazle]

One way would be to go through the army training and surrender to Ukrainian forces at the first opportunity, I'm sure it will have occurred to many reservists. A smart Ukrainian army would be busy printing leaflets offering comfortable surrender terms.

[adam2]

One way would be to go through the army training and surrender to Ukrainian forces at the first opportunity, I'm sure it will have occurred to many reservists. A smart Ukrainian army would be busy printing leaflets offering comfortable surrender terms.

Yes.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports that anti mobilisation protestors are being handed mobilisation papers at the police station after being arrested, and given the choice to accept or face 10 years in jail, on the spot.

Rumours are that Russia will expand the mobilisation to one million. We may see causality levels not seen since the Iran Iraq war where human waves try to cross no man’s land, the soldiers knowing that retreat also means certain death from their own side

[UndercoverElephant]

Nothing's happening any time soon - I did read there's a legal requirement of 4 months basic training for those newly mobilised. And... winter is a thing. The worrying picture here is that Putin is planning/expecting an uptick in fighting in the spring. How much progress can Ukraine make during the winter? Will the whole thing just 'freeze' for the next four months?

Both sides have the winter to prepare for an uptick of fighting in the spring, but it looks to me like that suits Ukraine much better than it does Russia. Putin clearly doesn't have much more in the way of mobilisable popular support. His reserve army doesn't want to fight, not least because it knows the odds aren't looking great. Ukraine meanwhile has a slowdown in the war for a few months to consolidate its recent gains and restock with advanced equipment. I think time is not on Putin's side.

[UndercoverElephant]

Rumours are that Russia will expand the mobilisation to one million. We may see causality levels not seen since the Iran Iraq war where human waves try to cross no man’s land, the soldiers knowing that retreat also means certain death from their own side

I am skeptical that Putin can retain control while implementing that sort of policy. He has to keep the depoliticised majority depoliticised.

[Vortex2]

The Brit in Russia YouTuber iEarlGrey is MUCH more gloomy about the future .. especially on how NATO will react.

By chance he registered for permanent residency today .. and seems to have been told that the next tranche of mobilisation will include Residents in addition to Nationals.

[BritDownUnder]

Looks like the ghost of Vietnam is coming haunt Russians.

Draft dodging - check.
Public unrest - check.
Military stalemate - check.
Worldwide condemnation - mostly.

I'd like to keep 'em stewing like this for a few months.

I am waiting the results of their rather unorthodox door-to-door referenda.

[adam2]

Russian army logistics officer sacked https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63021117

Many pictures on social media show rusted rifles and other defective kit issued to new conscripts.

Increasing numbers are fleeing russia, some to avoid conscription and some because they see no future in russia. Anti war and anti conscription protests spreading.

[Catweazle]

Word on the net, possibly untrue, is that NATO airplanes have all turned off their transponders. I can't find a solid source for this, but it's worth a search.

[kenneal - lagger]

Has anyone else noticed that the majority of the cars shown queueing at the border to exit Russian are large ones obviously belonging to the better off? As always it's the rich what gets the pleasure and it's the poor what gets to (in this case) serve.

And from some of the videos shown the authorities seem to be encouraging recruits to get drunk on their way to training presumably to stifle the ability to really object to anything.