Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

I may have been wrong to say that Putin still has the backing of his military elite. They are not about to rebel because they do not hold enough power, but they are not willing to send more regular troops to the war, or call a general mobilisation. Only mercinaries, poorly trained volunteers and prisoners are being sent. Most are little more than cannon fodder to hold the line at least until spring when a more organised second offensive might be attempted.

[Vortex2]

I have just seen some horrific video of the results of a Ukraine shelling of a shop in Donetsk today .. a civilian area.

13 shoppers literally blown to bits.

Whatver we think of the war, I feel sorry for the Donetsk residents who have been shelled for the last 8 years.

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine claims another nuclear power plant has been attacked by Russia, presumably with a single missile, at least 100 miles from the front lines. The strike hit 300m from the reactors , no injuries and only peripheral damage

[UndercoverElephant]

I may have been wrong to say that Putin still has the backing of his military elite. They are not about to rebel because they do not hold enough power, but they are not willing to send more regular troops to the war, or call a general mobilisation. Only mercinaries, poorly trained volunteers and prisoners are being sent. Most are little more than cannon fodder to hold the line at least until spring when a more organised second offensive might be attempted.

I don't think it can be made to work. The Russians had to get this right the first time, and it turns out they severely underestimated the difficulties they would face. It is too late now.

[invalid]

I don't think it can be made to work. The Russians had to get this right the first time, and it turns out they severely underestimated the difficulties they would face. It is too late now.

...And you've only been saying so since Feb/March. Meanwhile the operation has continued.

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't think it can be made to work. The Russians had to get this right the first time, and it turns out they severely underestimated the difficulties they would face. It is too late now.

...And you've only been saying so since Feb/March. Meanwhile the operation has continued.

I never said the war would be over this year. I made a prediction about the outcome, not the duration. The "operation" was supposed to be finished by now. It is quite clear which direction things are going in. Ukraine is getting stronger, Russia is getting weaker.

[Vortex2]

Ukraine claims another nuclear power plant has been attacked by Russia, presumably with a single missile, at least 100 miles from the front lines. The strike hit 300m from the reactors , no injuries and only peripheral damage

There is a lot of fuss in the media about this.

That said, an attack on the reactor 'switch farm' will be, by definition, in the neighbourhood of the reactor.

[PS_RalphW]

An attack on. Nuclear reactor “switch farm” sounds like an attempt to cut the power lines in and out of the station, which, given the need for electricity in to cool the reactors down during shut down, might as well be an attack directly on the reactor, as there is a high risk of meltdown.

[kenneal - lagger]

I don't think it can be made to work. The Russians had to get this right the first time, and it turns out they severely underestimated the difficulties they would face. It is too late now.

...And you've only been saying so since Feb/March. Meanwhile the operation has continued.

The difference between the two sides is that Ukraine has spent the last six months training a vast army of volunteers in the west to fight effectively using superior western weaponry while Russia has spent time throwing untrained conscripts in front of the Ukrainian guns and losing vast quantities of equipment in the process. The Ukrainians now have more equipment than they started the war with and their last attack achieved a manpower superiority of 8:1. 3:1 is considered an adequate level of superiority for an attack to succeed so the Ukrainians are doing quite well. The Ukrainians have spent six months degrading those Russian armed forces and Russia has been unable to replace them.

[adam2]

I agree the russian forces are ill trained, ill equipped, and ill led.

But we must not become complacent. Russia has large forces at its disposal and quantity DOES partly make up for poor quality. Russia also has large reserves of gas and oil for which Europe may soon become desperate, and of course they have have the Bomb.

[UndercoverElephant]

I agree the russian forces are ill trained, ill equipped, and ill led.

But we must not become complacent. Russia has large forces at its disposal and quantity DOES partly make up for poor quality. Russia also has large reserves of gas and oil for which Europe may soon become desperate, and of course they have have the Bomb.

I honestly don't think the extra population is going to make much difference at this point, and I am not sure how much use a nuclear bomb will be either. As for the reserves of gas and oil, there is no doubt that Russia has them and that Europe may become desperate, but whether they/we will be sufficiently desperate as to motivate a game-changing switch in strategy regarding this war remains to be seen. I think we have reached the point where Putin has to be removed from power one way or another, and anything which prolongs his grip on power may be seen as counterproductive.

[clv101]

...Putin has to be removed from power one way or another, and anything which prolongs his grip on power may be seen as counterproductive.

But what comes next? Putin has a lot personally, politically staked on this war. Putin is also increasingly being threatened from the nationalist right, and being dragged to the right. There isn't a plausible liberal Russian government in waiting! Remember Gorbachev was replaced from the hard-line right.

What happens to ~5,000 nuclear weapons in the post-Putin era? What to do? Appeasement doesn't work (Georgia, Syria, Crimea), need to defeat Russia in the field but what comes next? Russia isn't going away. Defeating Russia leaves a lightly populated, weak state, with potent legacy weapon systems in unpredictable hands and the world's number one cache of natural resources. China to the south - over populated, lack of natural resources. They move in, either physically or economically/politically. Does that set up China as an undisputed superpower in a couple decades?

I think part of the west's reticence in arming Ukraine more than they have is concern about what comes next if Putin is squarely defeated. They west would probably prefer the kick Putin back across the boarder but not cause the collapse of the Russian system for fear of what emerges from that unpredictable mess.

[Vortex2]

Europe may become desperate, but whether they/we will be sufficiently desperate as to motivate a game-changing switch in strategy regarding this war remains to be seen.

Check out the panic in the German media ....

* Industrial energy bills up by x10 to x15.

* Domestic bills about to go up by x5 to x13

* Whole industries facing close downs .. already many factories are ceasing operations.

* Bakers, butchers and other small buisinesses closing their doors as we speak.

* The Greens having closed 3 nuclear reactors in January will close the final 3 in this December.

Trump's recent mocking of Germany's collapse sums it up.

At some point the populace will get peeved, and Germany will HAVE to find cheap(er) energy somewhere .. probably Russia.

[Mark]

What happens to ~5,000 nuclear weapons in the post-Putin era? What to do? Appeasement doesn't work (Georgia, Syria, Crimea), need to defeat Russia in the field but what comes next? Russia isn't going away. Defeating Russia leaves a lightly populated, weak state, with potent legacy weapon systems in unpredictable hands and the world's number one cache of natural resources. China to the south - over populated, lack of natural resources. They move in, either physically or economically/politically. Does that set up China as an undisputed superpower in a couple decades?

Totally agree clv101
China is watching events like a vulture - a massive defeat for Russia may well be a bad thing for the west in the long run...
They've already expanded into many African and Asian countries to grab resources - Russia must look like the golden apple to them...

[PS_RalphW]

The news now is of slow, steady gains by Ukraine, recapturing territory lost a couple of months ago when Russia had the artillery numbers advantage in the northern Donbas. I hear of no gains at all by the Russian forces. The lines in Kherson appear more static, the Russians are repairing at least one bridge over the river.

Another breakthrough seems unlikely before winter, but at this stage it is about symbolic victories to boost morale, and bridgeheads over rivers from which future advances will come.

There are reports of the western supplied artillery losing accuracy due to reaching its operationsl life expectancy, but Ukraine is continuing to use them. This may be a factor in increased reports of civilian deaths in Russian held areas.

The price of NG has more than halved from its recent peak. The winter will be hard in Germany, but I do not see them caving in to Putin, and Germany is already only a bit player in the current arms and money flow to Ukraine.