Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

This news report appears to show many russian tanks abandoned on a main road, and some in shallow water, also large amounts of military stores.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350

[kenneal - lagger]

................
Either way, it explains why so much kit was abandoned, they didn’t have the troops to drive them. It implies that Russia is in an even weaker position than it seemed. ...........

More likely that they didn't have the troops to drive the fuel trucks to keep them going or the fuel to put in the tankers in the first place. Also seems that they didn't have enough grenades to lob in the top hatch to blow up the ammo stored in the turret to deny the tank to the Ukrainians.

[PS_RalphW]

Watching a debate on Al Jazera between Ukrainian, British and Russian military analysts was very interesting.

The Russian said that the original objective of regime change in Ukraine was no longer an option, but that defeat was not an option. However he did not anticipate general mobilisation and conscription in Russia because of the economic costs and lack of available hardware (but did not mention the issue of the time needed to train conscripts). He seemed to redefine not being defeated as not losing Crimea, but did not mention Donetsk.

The Ukrainian pointed out that the troops in Kharkiv were the volunteer regiments who have been in training since the start of the invasion, and were mostly using soviet era weapons, not the advanced weapons systems supplied by the West. They won by better numbers, morale, tactics and local support. He implied that with extra hardware and financial support, total victory was possible.

The uk guy said that Putin was facing trouble at home, more from the ultra nationalists than the moderates, and that the defence minister was more in the firing line politically. Neither side looks ready to talk peace, and both are looking to escalate.

Since Russia is short of weapons, ammo and troops, I fear escalation means destroying civilian infrastructure and killing civilians in an attempt to force Ukraine to negotiate. This is unlikely to work but it will get messy. Also, I don’t see the gas being turned back on as long as the hard liners are in control in Russia. I wouldn’t rule out Russia attacking the west, perhaps through supporting terrorists, or some other plausibly deniable method.

[clv101]

I and right in thinking there is *still* gas flowing from Russia to EU via the Ukrainian pipeline?

[Vortex2]

The Ukrainians are proving to be very savvy fighters.

Err .. NATO advisers and troops have proven themselves to be on top form.

Many combat videos show the troops speaking .. English.

If the hardliners in Russia takeover, then expect a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

[BritDownUnder]

The Ukrainians are proving to be very savvy fighters.

Err .. NATO advisers and troops have proven themselves to be on top form.

Many combat videos show the troops speaking .. English.

If the hardliners in Russia takeover, then expect a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

These hardliners are becoming somewhat clichéed...

After the car bombing of one hardliner I think most of the rest will be looking under their cars a bit more frequently nowadays.
I think we had Russian threats the nuke the UK in 1956, again in 1962, 1982, 1991 etc. North Korean threats to nuke Guam and Australia.

Then we had Zhirinovsky saying that Russian soldiers would be washing their boots in the Indian Ocean when they had to settle for the Sea of Azov.

Ukraine, in my opinion, should be given NATO nuclear weapons as a preparation for future threats.

On the war front, a small amount of land has been retaken but it will be a long slog. One hopes that there is not too much infrastructure damage in that area. I see the Russians are hitting the Ukrainian electrical grid so strikes should be made at the Russian grid and infrastructure in response. I would like the see damage to the gas pipelines going to China and hydro projects as well as the bridge to Crimea.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports of renewed fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia in a long term border dispute. Armenia to ask for Russian aid.

I think this is a new, small conflict that Putin is opening up that it can easily win, and fill the media with reports of victory to deflect attention away for Ukraine.

[UndercoverElephant]

Ukraine, in my opinion, should be given NATO nuclear weapons as a preparation for future threats.

Membership of NATO achieves the same goal.

On the war front, a small amount of land has been retaken but it will be a long slog.

The war is not over, but I think the outcome is now inevitable. Ukraine will take back all, or nearly all, of its lost territory. Maybe not Crimea, but we will see. The Russians don't have the resources - human, military or economic - to turn the momentum of this conflict back in their favour. And I don't believe the will exists - either politically or in terms of motivating their army - to hold on to that territory. The price they are paying is very high, and it looks increasingly likely that there will be no long-term strategic benefit.

[Mark]

I would like the see damage to the gas pipelines going to China and hydro projects as well as the bridge to Crimea.

Not sure about hitting the gas pipelines to China - getting the Chinese involved is the LAST thing we need...
Also, damaging hydroelectric projects would cause massive environmental damage and also impact civilians....
Ukraine has held the high ground partly by not targeting civilians...
I'm sure they'll want to keep it that way...

That Kerch Bridge between Russia and Crimea looks a very tempting target though....
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/19/worl ... rimea.html

Surprised the Ukrainians haven't already had a pop at it....

[adam2]

I and right in thinking there is *still* gas flowing from Russia to EU via the Ukrainian pipeline?

Not so far as I am aware, the main pipeline nordstream has been closed for some time now, and I think that it was reported that the other subsidiary pipelines were also closed.
I cant imagine russia supplying gas into a pipeline that goes via Ukraine, even if intended for third parties, I think the Ukrainians might liberate the gas. Or blow up the pipeline.

Does anyone know for certain ?

Edit to add that rather to my surprise gas IS STILL FLOWING via Ukraine. See following post for details.

[clv101]

Still flowing! https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-09-06/

One of the many curiosities of this war.

[clv101]

https://www.ft.com/content/b69093f4-d15 ... e1d813b921

A defeated Russia would not disappear off the map. And it would still possess large numbers of nuclear weapons, as well as a replenished stock of grievances.

[Default0ptions]

“A defeated Russia” etc

Are you serious? Is Russia losing a war against plucky democratic Ukrainians but at the same time is a real threat to Europe, NATO and the whole world?

As for sanctions working - very nicely thank you says Russia

I never voted for the sacrifice of the UK and Europe on the altar of US aggression

[kenneal - lagger]

“A defeated Russia” etc

Are you serious? Is Russia losing a war against plucky democratic Ukrainians but at the same time is a real threat to Europe, NATO and the whole world?

As for sanctions working - very nicely thank you says Russia

I never voted for the sacrifice of the UK and Europe on the altar of US aggression

Have I really got things so wrong when I think that it is Russian troops invading Ukraine to further Putin's aim to restore the Holy Soviet Empire? Is it really US troops there dressed up as Russians? The Russians can't be wholly absolved though because Putin must have given them permission to access Ukraine through Russia and Belorus.

Russia was thought to be a threat to Europe but this war, started and prosecuted by Russia not the USA, has put any fears of a Russian invasion of Europe firmly to bed for many years, even decades, into the future. The still extant danger, thought, is from the Russian nuclear arsenal and the instability of the Russian leadership which might be just stupid enough to use it.

As to the sanctions not working, Russia can't even build a car with an airbag in it let alone high tech weapons. They are having to rely on replacements from their stock of 50s and 60s weaponry.

[Default0ptions]

Yes you really have got things wrong but you are almost certainly unable to see this until you realise that the BBC and the majority of the sources you trust for information are hopelessly compromised and are serving propaganda rather than news and that western democracy has become merely ‘the best government that money can buy’.

I accept that I will never change your mind on this and I still value your thoughts and insights on many other matters.

UE and others label me as a Russian troll in a knee jerk reaction to any opinion that expresses any sign of moving outside the carefully constructed Overton Window.

My position remains that BOTH our propaganda and the propaganda emanating from Russia are exactly that: propaganda - and the only intellectually tenable position is to read both sides and try to find the middle ground between.