Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

Well it still irritates me that you arbitrarily label me as a Russian troll

There's quite a few people who have come to that conclusion. I'm not sure why you are surprised by this.

[UndercoverElephant]

There is a potential way this war can now end quite quickly, I think. If it is true that Ukraine has retaken the airport at Donetsk then it looks likely that the rout could continue in that direction. The front line south-west of Donetsk is only 30km from the coast at Mariupol, and the Ukrainians would not need to actually take back Mariupol to win this war. "All" they need to do is cut the supply lines heading west. They may only have to seriously threaten to do this in order to change the balance of the war on all the other fronts, as the Russians desperately try to avoid a situation where the only supply lines to their entire gains in the south are through Crimea. Not quite Desert Storm, but the same general idea.

[Vortex2]

Default0ptions wrote: ↑Sat Sep 10, 2022 8:34 pm
Well it still irritates me that you arbitrarily label me as a Russian troll

Don't lose any sleep over it.

This conflict has been brewing for several years .. and the West has certainly 'helped'.

Interestingly the more thoughtful pundits on YouTube tend to be a bit suspicious about the background to all this.

I wonder if all those Yellow-Blue flag wavers in the UK will admit to that support for this 'good war' in several years time?

"Me? No! Ididn't trust that Zelensky guy from Day One."

[UndercoverElephant]

https://news.sky.com/story/how-ukraine- ... e-12694636

With minimal fanfare, Ukraine's military has achieved the most significant gains since Russian troops were forced to abandon plans to capture the capital Kyiv towards the end of March.

Its soldiers have - in a lighting advance - recaptured hundreds of square miles of territory in the Kharkiv region that had previously been under Russian control, including villages, towns, and even cities.

The triumphs followed a period of almost complete silence from Ukrainian commanders and political leaders about any military action.

Access to the entire frontline has been cut off for all journalists, except those attached to the Ukrainian military or Ministry of Defence, since towards the end of August.

It was part of a plan to restrict the flow of information reaching the Russian side and potentially compromising the mission. The move underlined the importance of information, or in this case, the withholding of information, in wartime.

S

[PS_RalphW]

I am still concerned that Putin may resort to the nuclear option, maybe not bombs but an engineered core meltdown, as retribution for the audacity of winning the war.

My dream Christmas would be for a military coup to take out Putin, and a full climbdown and withdrawal from Ukraine, maybe with negotiations on an internationally monitored referendum in Crimea on returning to Ukrainian ownership. The gas pipeline would reopen, but demand for its gas would remain at very low levels. Price of NG would collapse, and the government subsidy would become irrelevant. The Donetsk separists would be arrested and jailed for torturing and murdering prisoners.

I know I am dreaming.

[UndercoverElephant]

excellent 15 min video explaining what is happening: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jm7cGVvYAW8&t=14s

[PS_RalphW]

The Russian held nuclear plant has shut down the last of its six reactors. Power for cooling is coming from the last remaining power line still connected to another power station. If that fails, diesel generators take over. If those fail before the core is cool, meltdown.

[adam2]

The Russian held nuclear plant has shut down the last of its six reactors. Power for cooling is coming from the last remaining power line still connected to another power station. If that fails, diesel generators take over. If those fail before the core is cool, meltdown.

This I view with great concern, I have little faith in the diesel generators or in the fuel supplies. Generators probably soviet and of poor quality. Fuel probably stolen.

Does anyone know for how long will active cooling be required ? I have no faith in the invading troops understanding nuclear power.

[adam2]

Ukraine claims further gains, and russia admits to retreating in order to regroup.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62867560

[PS_RalphW]

It seems the rate of advance has slowed in the Kharkiv region, as Ukrainian forces need to consolidate and mop up isolated pockets of Russians that got left behind. I guess Ukraine will push the Russians back to the border in the north, to prevent shelling of the city. Russia lost hundreds of pieces of hardware, tanks, APcs, artillery, etc. and lots of supplies . I think at least some of the Russian 3rd army that Putin was sending in to counter the attack was itself attacked and the undertrained soldiers with antiquated weapons routed.

Ukraine will have captured more hardware than it lost in the attack, albeit of dubious quality and condition.

Russia, or maybe Putin himself, really screwed up on this one. They sent their regular army , well trained and highly mobile paratroopers to Kherson, where they are trapped behind the blown bridges and pinned down by Ukrainian artillery with drone spotters, and slowly running out of fuel and ammo. They would have been the ideal troops to hold the Ukrainian attack in the north.

The Ukrainians are only making small advances in the south against these forces, but time is on their side.

The news has gone quiet, which may mean Ukraine is planning its next surprise attack. The region of Luhansk in the east looks highly vulnerable, so maybe the attack will be in the central south, to recapture Mariupol and split the Russian forces in two

[adam2]

What do the posters here think are Putin’s chances of still being in power by the end of the year?

https://youtu.be/nhpfNnqtinE

Very small in my view. But the unknown unknown is will the new leader will be an extremist who will say "enough of this faffing around, just nuke them" or will it be someone more moderate who will withdraw from Ukraine.

TPTB in Moscow seem to be expecting trouble, various reports suggest.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Ukrainians are only making small advances in the south against these forces, but time is on their side.

Timing is also on their side. We are just about to enter the muddy season.

The news has gone quiet, which may mean Ukraine is planning its next surprise attack. The region of Luhansk in the east looks highly vulnerable, so maybe the attack will be in the central south, to recapture Mariupol and split the Russian forces in two

That is the obvious killer blow at this point.

[kenneal - lagger]

The Ukrainians are proving to be very savvy fighters. I have no doubt that this advance was planned at this time so that any Russian counterattacks will be prevented by the muddy season and we can expect further Ukranian advances before that takes hold. Ukraine will be able to resupply and dig into defences under cover of their long range artillery while the Russians will be exposed and very vulnerable.

The Ukranians are being supplied with cold weather uniforms so we can expect them to be active once the freeze up comes. Russians, cut off from new supplies, will suffer greatly so they will be very much on the back foot when the attack comes.

[adam2]

The Ukrainian forces have achieved considerable success recently, They still need arms and ammunition though. I am concerned that allies might start thinking "they are winning now, so we don't need to send arms"

A small scale firefight with automatic weapons can easily use thousands of rounds.

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine is reporting a major factor in their victory is that they outnumbered the Russians 8 to 1 in the area. This either suggests that Russia was so overwhelmingly misled as to the Ukrainian tactics that they risked massive troop withdrawal to support other fronts or more likely their overall troop numbers are far lower than even the Ukrainians hoped. I suspect Russia had far fewer personnel on the ground than their nominal troop strengths at the start of this war, and they also have suffered very high casualties already.

Either way, it explains why so much kit was abandoned, they didn’t have the troops to drive them. It implies that Russia is in an even weaker position than it seemed.


There are online rumours that the Russian troops in Kherson are negotiating surrender terms. This seems more hopeful thinking than real info at the moment.