Are we REALLY heading for very bad times in late 2022/early 2023?

[kenneal - lagger]

T(Shelter, on the other hand, would have taken relatively little of our available labour on a day-to-day basis, compared to today, when it takes the lion's share.)

Nail on head.
If we weren't paying literally a third (that appears to be about the average) of our income on rent/mortgage then everything else, even at current prices, would be something nearly everyone could deal with.

That has been deliberately engineered by the banks to ensure the largest transfer of wealth from us to them. They have engineered the rise in house prices to enable them to make more money and most of us think that it is us who get richer as the price of our house goes up!!

[BritDownUnder]

Perhaps people are spending too much on their shelter and could make do with less shelter.

I got a property - probably the worst house in the best street in town - for about 2.5x my salary. It is more than adequate and the mortgage has been paid off in only seven years, only the council rates and maintenance to pay for from now on.

[kenneal - lagger]

UK houses are getting smaller not bigger. People may be getting houses with an extra bedroom but the house is smaller than a 1970s house with one less bedroom. some UK houses have a "bedroom" that can only just take a single bed and not much else. That used to be called a box room and that could take a bed and a dressing table or wardrobe.

And its likely to cost you 8 or 9 times salary.

[BritDownUnder]

I don't think anyone is getting forced to buy houses. I am prepared to understand that people may have to work in London for some job but there are plenty of jobs in the regions too unless you do something very specific.
Perhaps houses have gone up a lot in value since I left the UK (Cambridge was already roaring away in the early 1990s) but there are other options to buying a house especially if you are single. Shared houses, living with relatives and lodging are all options if not very palatable sometimes. So is living in a tiny house, canal boat or even a yurt if that gets your fancy.

Buying a house with interest rates close to zero percent is never going to end well.

Government could relax planning restrictions with a lot of consideration the environment and start building council houses again. Then there is the matter of interest rates.

[Catweazle]

I don't think anyone is getting forced to buy houses. I am prepared to understand that people may have to work in London for some job but there are plenty of jobs in the regions too unless you do something very specific.
Perhaps houses have gone up a lot in value since I left the UK (Cambridge was already roaring away in the early 1990s) but there are other options to buying a house especially if you are single. Shared houses, living with relatives and lodging are all options if not very palatable sometimes. So is living in a tiny house, canal boat or even a yurt if that gets your fancy.

Buying a house with interest rates close to zero percent is never going to end well.

Government could relax planning restrictions with a lot of consideration the environment and start building council houses again. Then there is the matter of interest rates.

With respect, BDU, I think you must be a bit out of touch with the UK.

The rental prices have kept pace with property values, and are currently at ridiculous levels. For example, a two or three bed terraced house within 25 to 30 miles of central London will likely cost £1200+ per month rent. Canal boats are rare, getting permission to live in a yurt almost impossible.

Here's an example in Chatham;

https://www.onthemarket.com/details/12278682/

Or one bedroom in a house share in Gravesend;

https://www.onthemarket.com/details/12239250/

That will give you an idea of what you get for your money in a pretty run down high crime area.

There's an article in the Evening Standard about rental prices today;

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/homeand ... d32d958c02

[BritDownUnder]

Yes I am somewhat out of touch with things in the UK.

The first three years of working in the UK (93 to 96) I rented a room in a Cambridge shared house (electricity included and fully furnished) for about 240 pounds a month and had 944 pounds take home a month. I think I saved about 30,000 pounds after three years. I carpetbagged every building society with a branch in Cambridge and some more with postal accounts.

That shared room listed is available immediately which in the current property crisis screams that it is overpriced, to me anyway.

I don't know much about Kent as I never lived there but was quite surprised about the crime rate as a county. However I did live in Basildon "Bas-vegas" with a family member, when I worked in London, which has a slightly higher crime rate and quite liked the place.

I looked around a shared house in Upton Park once, the house and area would have turned a Guardian readers hair white. Certainly gave me a fright. I moved to Romford (30 minutes Gidea Park to Liverpool street in the borough of Havering - Cheapest borough in London apparently - and very nice too) and stayed there until leaving the City job. I also lived in Telford, probably the worst part, Hollinswood, rented a room for 50 pounds a week all bills included, and never had any trouble - even joined a gym.

Always options for cheap living even living in a van or Jaywick.

[Catweazle]

That shared room listed is available immediately which in the current property crisis screams that it is overpriced, to me anyway.

It's probably only just been converted. Landlords in places like Gravesend are buying whole streets and converting them to HMO's. The income from the first conversion services the loan to buy the second property and so on etc., etc.. I know Gravesend well, having lived there nearly all my life, the landlords have no qualms about getting rough with tenants or persuading homeowners to sell, never short of an alibi from the community.

[Catweazle]

I looked around a shared house in Upton Park once, the house and area would have turned a Guardian readers hair white.

I went to college in West Ham, my first week there included witnessing a march past the college by the National Front, followed by a massive street fight, and a pupil hitting the principal with a tray from the canteen.

[BritDownUnder]

I looked around a shared house in Upton Park once, the house and area would have turned a Guardian readers hair white.

I went to college in West Ham, my first week there included witnessing a march past the college by the National Front, followed by a massive street fight, and a pupil hitting the principal with a tray from the canteen.

Only a small race riot when I viewed that room with school aged Asian and White children attacking each other in the street.
I quickly decided that a an alternative room in Canning Town was more to my liking.

I thought renting shared houses would be a good business too but saving for the first house with rapidly rising prices put me off. I think I would have been more of a Rigsby sort of landlord with a touch of Rachmann around the edges.

[Tarrel]

Looking at the original question (posted in June) from the perspective of late September, I think the answer is categorically "Yes"!