Ukraine Watch...

[BritDownUnder]

The Daily Mail (horror) is reporting that Putin is after invading Northern Kazakhstan which is populated by many Russians, as well as quite a few Kazakhs I would imagine. I recall a real Kazakh telling me there were villages in Kazakhstan that Russians were killed for entering. I think the Russian Army will get a cold reception.

Sometimes, shock horror, daughters get tied up in assassinations of their fathers. Maybe the daughter of Skripal wasn't very guilty of anything except her father was quite a good British agent, but still got a bit poisoned. I think it says in the Bible that the sins of the fathers will be visited upon the children. I think the IRA used the term 'legitimate target' as well for things they bombed.

All in all the war seems to be going well for Ukraine, except if the nuclear power plant goes up. Maybe the West should have a plan to seize it with special forces if things start to get hot.

[Catweazle]

The Daily Mail (horror) is reporting that Putin is after invading Northern Kazakhstan which is populated by many Russians, as well as quite a few Kazakhs

I can't imagine Putin having a go at Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia. I wouldn't place bets against him trying his luck in Kazakhstan - they've got a load of oil and minerals.

It'll be a softer target than Ukraine.

[BritDownUnder]

It'll be a softer target than Ukraine.

I can imagine quite a few followers of a certain religion who might have different views.

China who buys quite a bit of Kazakh minerals and oil and gas might also have a few opinions on the matter.

I for one, hope Russia does invade. It may be the end of them.

Interesting map on the demographic makeup of Kazakhstan. Looks like Russians are down to 18% of the population in 2022 down from 45% in 1989. However quite a lot of areas of Northern Kazakhstan where Russians are present but quite a few islands of Russians deep in Kazakhstan who might be getting a bit nervous right now about Kremlin ambitions. And it wouldn't be a proper former Soviet republic without a Soviet inspired famine of the local population.

The Kazakh I met on a GE power station job in Bangladesh quite liked Russians but he did say a lot of his wife's family wanted to kill them.

[adam2]

North Korean "volunteers" to fight in Ukraine, for Russia.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlarg ... n-ukraine/
In return for supplies of russian oil and grain. North Kora is very short of both food and fuel.

So much could go wrong !
The korean troops might defect or change sides, or melt into the local population. Even in wartime, living standards in Ukraine are much higher than in North Korea.
Would the north koreans be able to understand modern weapons, can they even read.

After the first lot are killed by Ukrainian forces the dear leader might use a nuke.

[PS_RalphW]

I doubt North Koreans could melt into the local population. Ukraine does not have a good reputation of being a liberal multiethnic society. The North Korean army gets much better standard of living than the rest of their society, and they know that their families would suffer if they defected, probably terminally. I expect that most of the Korean hardware will be Russian Already That said,they will be cannon fodder.

[clv101]

North Korean soldiers are likely much better trained than their Russia counterparts, and will be familiar with Russian equipment.

[kenneal - lagger]

So the conclusion is Germany/France are in the energy doodoo. And they are desperate to get out of it. How? Side with Putin obliquely.

Yep, I'm expecting a pivot away from US position towards Russia before this winter's done.

What? Germany siding with the Russian Nazis?

[clv101]

Nothing as overt as 'siding with', but Germany (all of Europe to greater or lesser degrees) *needs* Russian resources, as will become clear by early next year.

[Stumuz2]

I think I know what Ken is saying. Many Germans especially in the old East have very strong ties with Russia and many sympathies.
However, Germany is now paying almost 70 cents per KwH wholesale for their electricity.
Old Olaf will be picking up the blower to Vlad and saying,
" do you want to make a deal?"
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1 ... O7qKwrAAAA

[BritDownUnder]

North Korean soldiers are likely much better trained than their Russia counterparts, and will be familiar with Russian equipment.

Are you for real? What do you base that comment on? They may be familiar with 1950s Russian equipment.

North Korean soldiers are good at starving and getting the harvest in. They will be Ukrainian targets and I don't think there will be any prisoners taken.

[kenneal - lagger]

I doubt that the North Koreans would send any of their best troops. They need them to defend against the South and the US.

Although maybe Kim wants them to get some battle experience before taking on the US whose troops, or at least the NCOs, will probably have had battle experience.

If the Russian experience is anything to go by they will loose a considerable number of troops while gaining that experience.

As to the age of the weapons that they will be using, Russia probably only has 1950 and 60s weapons stocks left now. Certainly the tanks that they are using are 1960s and early 70s according to reports.

The Ukrainians are probably getting through the West's stocks from 2000 onwards, so considerably more modern.

[clv101]

North Korean soldiers are likely much better trained than their Russia counterparts, and will be familiar with Russian equipment.

Are you for real? What do you base that comment on? They may be familiar with 1950s Russian equipment.

North Korean soldiers are good at starving and getting the harvest in. They will be Ukrainian targets and I don't think there will be any prisoners taken.

I've mentioned it a few times, Barbara Demick's book Nothing to Envy is a rare account of life in North Korea.

[BritDownUnder]

North Korean soldiers are likely much better trained than their Russia counterparts, and will be familiar with Russian equipment.

Are you for real? What do you base that comment on? They may be familiar with 1950s Russian equipment.

North Korean soldiers are good at starving and getting the harvest in. They will be Ukrainian targets and I don't think there will be any prisoners taken.

I've mentioned it a few times, Barbara Demick's book Nothing to Envy is a rare account of life in North Korea.

That's all well and good you referring that book which is no doubt very interesting but what skills in particular do you think the North Koreans can bring to Russia. Do they have good insurgency skills, counter insurgency skills, artillery skills or what? From what I can find out on the unspeakable book website that book is based on the interviews of six defectors from one town in North Korea. Would they make good police of the occupied areas, after all they did train Robert Mugabe's Fifth Brigade who were very good at keeping order in Matabeleland? What would the local populace, Russian or Ukrainian make of them? Would the Koreans be able to tell the difference between one lot of Slavic white people from another? What is the level of Russian fluency in North Korea?

Personally I hope they do come to Ukraine. The experiences the North Koreans bring back to their homeland may be very eye opening. And it will give the West a good idea on the capabilities, or otherwise of the North Korean Army.

[Stumuz2]

Yep, I'm expecting a pivot away from US position towards Russia before this winter's done.

Looks like Italy is the first out of the traps.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... sanctions/

"Italian firebrand Matteo Salvini has called on the European Union to rethink its sanctions on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine, amid fears of declining support for Kyiv.

The leader of the far-Right League party - an admirer of Vladimir Putin, the Russian president - said Brussels should consider whether the punitive measures are hurting member states more than Moscow"

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine claims to have begun a counter offensive to retake Kherson in the south. Too early to say how this is going, clearly they wanted to make an attack before the autumn weather makes the going difficult, and Russia had all of winter to build its defences.

Russia still making minor gains in the east but otherwise the fighting is dying down with only low levels of shelling.

Putin has called for an extra 150,000 soldiers to be recruited, but that is going to take time and the quality of men prepared to sign up is questionable.

Update

Reports are beginning of power and water outages in the Kherson region, suggesting that Ukraine is initially targeting key civilian infrastructure (after earlier targeting military ammunition dumps and similar) with a view to making life as difficult as possible for Russian military controlling an at least partially restive population. Previously Russia does not seem to have particularly targeted such infrastructure, either with a view to capturing it intact, or because their weaponry was insufficiently precise.

This does suggest Ukraine does have a phased plan of attack, Western style, and has the hardware to at least attempt it. Time will tell.