Are we REALLY heading for very bad times in late 2022/early 2023?

[adam2]

And another piece of rather unlikely doom.
Certain trade union hotheads are calling for a general strike. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62331759

This in my view is unlikely to happen. Firstly the trades unions now have far less power than was the case decades ago, who cares nowadays if the miners go on strike ?
And secondly the law now prohibits sympathetic strike action.
So unlikely to happen IMHO, but the fact that it is being called for is interesting.

[clv101]

Re general strike, sure, the Unions have less power these days... however, the energy price increases are simply incredible. Front page of Times today talked about £4,000 average bills in the new year, £500 for January alone, up from £1,300 before this kicked off. Millions of households simply don't have the extra £2000+ needed after the Oct and Jan prices rises. This obliviously feeds inflation, and when official data says 10%+, personal experience suggests more and you're offered a pay rise of 3%?

Something's gotta give. This is teeing up public disorder the like of which we haven't seen since the 1990 Poll Tax riots - now with social media to organise.

[adam2]

Significant rioting and disorder are very likely IMHO, local hotheads were calling for this some time ago and the idea is becoming more general.
General strike, very unlikely IMHO.
Felixstow dock strike, probable in my view.
Other strikes in vital industries also likely, tanker drivers, power station workers, gas terminal workers, national grid staff.

Food shortages are possible.
LPG is still/again in short supply.
Logs, coal, batteries, candles, and paraffin may be short.

If food shortages become severe, then I expect that ports would be run by the armed forces.

[adam2]

Many European nations are preparing in various ways for a likely gas shortage, and consequent electricity shortage. Mainly by reducing energy use NOW in order that gas stocks will last a bit longer. Examples include.
Prohibiting workplace air conditioning to below say 25 degrees.
Prohibiting workplace heating to more than 20 degrees.
Restrictions on outdoor decorative lighting.
Turning of decorative fountains.
Prohibiting portable heaters and air conditioners in workplaces.

Meanwhile what are TPTB doing in the UK ?

We are arguably more vulnerable than most of our European neighbours due to the very limited UK storage. And yes I know that very little UK gas comes from Russia, but that helps very little as supplies from elsewhere are scarce and hugely expensive.

[BritDownUnder]

Meanwhile what are TPTB doing in the UK ?

Not much, according to this person, who was being interviewed by the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change. But don't worry. You don't get to see or hear Tony on this video at all.

Looks like only individual action can be taken now. I presume the powers will just shut down all industry (a bit like a lockdown I suppose) when the gas runs short and then wonder why the economy takes a hit.

[adam2]

Supermarkets have resorted to adding security tags to packs of Lurpak as the price of 1kg of butter reaches more than £9 in some shops.

Whom would want to steal the product pictured ?
It is not even real butter "blended with rapeseed oil" =not pure butter.

More seriously, the expected strike at Felixstowe container port is now confirmed as going ahead for eight days later this month.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62440005
That wont help with supply chain issues, especially if it encourages other strikes in related sectors.

[kenneal - lagger]

I suspect that many of these strikes are Russian inspired to disrupt our ability to help Ukraine. Perhaps inspired is too strong a word, more "helped along" would probably be a better description or even "subtly encouraged"!

[clv101]

I suspect that many of these strikes are Russian inspired to disrupt our ability to help Ukraine. Perhaps inspired is too strong a word, more "helped along" would probably be a better description or even "subtly encouraged"!

Any evidence for that suspicion?

I think there is ample *domestic* unease to explain the strikes.

[adam2]

I am not aware of any solid evidence that Russia is behind the dock strike in particular, nor that they are behind industrial disputes in general, but I do consider it probable.
Sowing discord and discontent in the wicked west is almost certainly a long standing russian policy, now of greater importance after the invasion.

Also the more left wing or militant trades unions have traditionally expressed friendship with, and support for the glorious workers paradise of russia. The fact that russia is no longer a proper communist country may take a long time to sink into trade union management.

[kenneal - lagger]

I agree with Adam above, it's something that the Russians, albeit in the form of the USSR for a long time, have been doing for years and I've been watching Undeclared War on the TV.

[adam2]

Slight increase in my "doom index"
I regularly look on fleabay for bulk packs of household candles, packs of 50 Duracell D cells and government surplus wool blankets.
All these items are less available and more expensive than previously.

I have ample stocks of the above and look at prices for interest, not with the intention of purchasing.

[BritDownUnder]

I agree with Adam above, it's something that the Russians, albeit in the form of the USSR for a long time, have been doing for years and I've been watching Undeclared War on the TV.

I read in the Daily Mail (so it MUST be true and I do love to say that so as to irritate the lefties) that the train union leader and deputy leader have posted some pro-Putin things recently on the social media of choice for people who live in democracies but seem to just love the leaders and politics of dictatorships, for some bizarre reason.

[kenneal - lagger]

You missed out the "fascist" from the "politics of dictatorships" BDU. Even Corbyn himself seems to be somewhat enamoured by Mother Russia still even though she left her nominal socialism behind decades ago.

[Vortex2]

At the coffee meetup after church yesterday, I brought up the rising energy costs.
Several families came across as TERRIFIED at what's ahead.
They used to be able to save a little - but no longer.
If living costs rise more they have no more to give.
This is going to be repeated across MILLIONS of totally ordinary families.
I simply cannot imagine what this is going to lead to.

[clv101]

I simply cannot imagine what this is going to lead to.

Collapse?

For the last ~20yrs we've been thinking about energy decline, but discussion has usually focused on actual physical shortages. Today's discussion is almost exclusively about money. Which is kinda odd, why is no one thinking about physical shortages? Surely that's what these high prices represent?