Heat watch

[clv101]

The UK has changed, we are now a country that can see 40C heat waves (and don't believe anyone who tells you this was a one in a hundred year freak event). This will happen again, soon, and higher. The previous record was only three years old, we probably won't have to wait long before this new record falls.

It's ridiculous that "experts" are on TV saying that these events "could be once every 15 year events by the year 2100". Madness.

Yeah, I'd be amazed if this record stands for 15 years. 40°C could be a 1 in ~10 year event *now*, and getting more likely, let alone in 2100.

[automaticearth2]

The UK has changed, we are now a country that can see 40C heat waves (and don't believe anyone who tells you this was a one in a hundred year freak event). This will happen again, soon, and higher. The previous record was only three years old, we probably won't have to wait long before this new record falls.

It's ridiculous that "experts" are on TV saying that these events "could be once every 15 year events by the year 2100". Madness.

Yeah, I'd be amazed if this record stands for 15 years. 40°C could be a 1 in ~10 year event *now*, and getting more likely, let alone in 2100.

Here's a mock weather forecast from 2050 (not sure if you've seen it):
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/i ... t-for-2050

That forecast looks not too much different from last Tuesdays TBH. Guess we've reached 2050 a bit early? Also, aren't we in line for another heatwave in early August?

[BritDownUnder]

I would be interested in what statistical distribution governs daily maximum temperatures. Normal (bell curve) could be a possibility. But then a large area of air that has been heated up in the Sahara region and then moved up to the UK could be difficult to model statistically.

[clv101]

Nice write-up from Met Office, includes this chart:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/p ... eat-review

Also just saw this:

Re heat and "it's all the concrete and buildings." It took Cuba, a country that hasn't changed much since the revolution, 90 years (1909-1999) to break its all time heat record. Since 1999, it has broken it another 4 times (2009, 2015, 2019, 2020).

[PS_RalphW]

The Guardian reports that 41 houses were destroyed by the grass fires near London. A fire professor assesses that if there had been higher winds to spread the flames and embers then we could have seen the second fire of London

[adam2]

The Guardian reports that 41 houses were destroyed by the grass fires near London. A fire professor assesses that if there had been higher winds to spread the flames and embers then we could have seen the second fire of London

Agree, I was shocked by the scale of destruction, and what by what appeared to be inadequate firefighting efforts. Higher winds could indeed have made it a lot worse.
Probably not comparable to the historic great fire of London since central London buildings are largely of fire resistant construction. However significant fire spread in suburban areas was a distinct possibility. What if the electricity supply had failed over a large area, remembering that a lot of mains water is now pumped electrically.

Another, and perhaps not widely known factor is increasing fire risks in urban areas. Thames water, and presumably other water suppliers have had for some years a policy of reducing mains water pressure. There is considerable political pressure on water companies to reduce losses by leakage. The simplest way of reducing leaks is to reduce the water pressure.
This was a problem when I maintained several large buildings in the Holborn area. Rooftop water cisterns no longer filled reliably from mains water pressure. Direct from mains drinking water no longer reached the upper floors.

This reduced pressure reduces the volumes of water available in case of fire. I recall for example the major fire at Breams Buildings, Holborn.
The local mains water supply was inadequate, and the fire brigade were criticised for failing to obtain extra water from the Thames.
https://www.standard.co.uk/hp/front/fir ... 46397.html

[UndercoverElephant]

The UK has changed, we are now a country that can see 40C heat waves (and don't believe anyone who tells you this was a one in a hundred year freak event). This will happen again, soon, and higher. The previous record was only three years old, we probably won't have to wait long before this new record falls.

It's ridiculous that "experts" are on TV saying that these events "could be once every 15 year events by the year 2100". Madness.

Yeah, I'd be amazed if this record stands for 15 years. 40°C could be a 1 in ~10 year event *now*, and getting more likely, let alone in 2100.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/weather/topst ... d=msedgntp

As new weather models show chances of a second heatwave with similar temperatures, new research shows that 40C temperatures will become regularly seen in the UK within the next three decades.

A weather forecasting system used in the US has shown that Greater London and parts of Eastern England will see the heatwave return in August.

Two individual forecasts which are part of the 31 used in the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) modelling, show that 40C is predicted for next month.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... k-24569975

The UK's highest ever temperature could be broken again within a month of the record being sent, bookmakers indicate.

Coral is now offering odds of 6-4 that the record of 40.3C set in July will be broken in August 2022. Previously, it offered odds of 3-1. Coral has also made it odds-on that August 2022 will be the month's hottest on record, and offers 1-4 for a hosepipe ban.

[clv101]

The bookies are cashing in on the hype. Extremely unlikely to be broken again this summer.

[Mark]

The Guardian reports that 41 houses were destroyed by the grass fires near London.

The Daily Mail make it 61 nationally, with 36 near London:
• Wennington (East London) - 19
• Dagenham (East London) – 14
• Chadwell Heath (East London) – 1
• Kenton (North West London) - 2
• Brancaster Staithe (Norfolk) - 5
• Ashmanhaugh (Norfolk) - 2
• Kiveton Park (South Yorkshire) - 3
• Barnsley (South Yorkshire) - 6
• Maltby (South Yorkshire) - 8
• Clayton (South Yorkshire) – 3

[adam2]

The exact number of houses destroyed will vary a bit depending upon whom one asks, since opinions may differ as to the dividing line between damaged and destroyed.
The losses are clearly substantial and suggest that both climate change and fire safety need to be taken more seriously.

[Mark]

Suspect that insurance premiums are going to substantially increase, particularly in the SE...

Also, the number of Fire Service personnel have been steadily declining for years.
Like so many other public services, they need investing in..., and quickly....

[kenneal - lagger]

Less than 100 out of 27 million is a minute proportion unless yours' is one of the houses destroyed. We see more seriously damaged by high winds and flooding. I can't see any action being taken after the hoo hah has died down.

There might be a slight increase in fire fighting personnel but I would think that they are more likely to form a reserve force of volunteers and/or part timers first.

[Mark]

Probably true Kenneal....

But if the stars had aligned differently and the wind had been blowing, we could well have been looking at many thousands, rather than 100...
Believe that Greater London was down to 3 spare fire engines at the peak of the fires....
We're not great at learning lessons from any major event, but this one is sure to be back...

[adam2]

Hence my suggestion made elsewhere on these forums that we need a proper civil defence organisation, whose stocks of emergency equipment should include a simplified type of fire engine. Not just for large fires but also for any other emergency in which pumping large volumes of water is a requirement.