Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

A guided shell is unlikely. Any standard type of artillery shell is ejected from the gun barrel by an explosive charge, but once on its way, is a "dumb" projectile. The path taken is then controlled by physics.

Modern artillery can be very accurate, with the traverse and elevation of the gun being adjusted to allow for range, air pressure, temperature, wind speed, and even the rotation of the earth. If the fall of the shells can be observed, then accuracy can be even better by correcting latter shots according to the error of earlier shots. In years gone by, artillery officers were trained in the use of mechanical computers/specialist slide rules. These days they probably have an App !

[BritDownUnder]

I was thinking of something like the M982 Excalibur munition.
Good to see it is developed by BAe.

The Russians have a good GPS jamming capability so maybe that is why you don't hear of them, or maybe it is a secret. What I would like to see is a railgun launched weapon about the cross section of a crowbar and about two feet long that can be launched at about Mach 7, be guided, and have a range of about 60 miles. If they can get good accuracy then may even be able to use it to shoot down missiles or even take out individual troops (Russian hopefully). Imagine getting hit by a hypersonic crowbar. A kind of modern crossbow. Supposedly the crossbow was considered such a cruel weapon in the Middle Ages that the Pope banned its use against Christians.

Let's hope such a thing is at least being thought about by people in the Pentagon.

[Catweazle]

US GPS guided artillery shells have a range of 35 miles and accuracy of 4 metres. I think they are unlikely to see use in Ukraine, as they cost £50,000 each.

[UndercoverElephant]

Supposedly the crossbow was considered such a cruel weapon in the Middle Ages that the Pope banned its use against Christians.

I think this is not quite right. It was banned in some circles because it was lethal in the hands of people with very little training and no great physical strength. This was considered to be "against the spirit of chivalry", especially after the death of Richard I at the hands of a teenage peasant.

[PS_RalphW]

As expect Russia at the last minute demanded extra concessions before agreeing to Ukraine exporting grain through the Black Sea. They want permission for their ships to export goods through the Black Sea, by which they mean the grain they have stolen from Ukraine

[adam2]

"Russia expands war aims beyond Eastern Ukraine"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62231936 Whom would have thought it.

[BritDownUnder]

Supposedly the crossbow was considered such a cruel weapon in the Middle Ages that the Pope banned its use against Christians.

I think this is not quite right. It was banned in some circles because it was lethal in the hands of people with very little training and no great physical strength. This was considered to be "against the spirit of chivalry", especially after the death of Richard I at the hands of a teenage peasant.

You could be right. I heard that the Mongols were not very happy with the crossbow either and being heathens their souls were not of interest to the Pope or chivalrous types. When Mongols attacked Europe they split into groups and won some very significant victories over Poles and Hungarians in 1242, I think (maybe Mr Putin took note of this), but a small Mongol force was defeated by Germans using crossbows and it worried the Mongols considerably. This was a very small reason why they gave up invading Europe, mainly it was because their leader died and they had to go back and pick a new one. When they came back in about 1280s the Europeans were very much ready and Mongols were defeated.
Some lessons could be learned here from the current threat from the East - adapt your tactics, defeat in detail, use technology to grind them down.

[BritDownUnder]

US GPS guided artillery shells have a range of 35 miles and accuracy of 4 metres. I think they are unlikely to see use in Ukraine, as they cost £50,000 each.

Depends if the thing they destroy could be valued at more than £50,000 such as an important bridge, a new tank, a helicopter on the ground or a meeting of important Russian officers maybe. The Americans will have to weigh the risks of either a shell malfunctioning or by treachery falling intact into the hands of the enemy which was a matter of great concern to the Allied use of proximity shells during the late stages of WW2.

Also quite a lot of the £50,000 for these shells could be coming back to the UK BAe shareholders, including myself, which given the UK has spent a lot of money in this venture is not a bad thing.

[adam2]

This report is interesting in that it implies that Russia faces increasing challenges in maintaining offensive operations in Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62259179

[Vortex2]

This report is interesting in that it implies that Russia faces increasing challenges in maintaining offensive operations in Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62259179

The evidence on the ground doesn't confirm this.
All the indications are that Ukraine is about done in - it's front line could fail any time.
They are outnumbered maybe 10 to 1 .. and this is bound to have an effect.
And, no. a handful of new HIMARS etc won't turn the tide.

[BritDownUnder]

This report is interesting in that it implies that Russia faces increasing challenges in maintaining offensive operations in Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62259179

The evidence on the ground doesn't confirm this.
All the indications are that Ukraine is about done in - it's front line could fail any time.
They are outnumbered maybe 10 to 1 .. and this is bound to have an effect.
And, no. a handful of new HIMARS etc won't turn the tide.

I would guess that the situation is little changed from March really. Russia has four times the population so could deploy four times the manpower. They are probably using their old tanks first and will save the new stuff for defence against the West.
One would hope almost any army could prevail with ten times the forces even with the Russian's incompetence.

I see they are setting up elections in their occupied areas of the South including Kherson. I wonder if the OSCE gets to monitor them.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia signs a treaty to allow export of grain from Ukrainian ports on Friday, promising not to attack ports. On Saturday Odessa, the major grain exporting port in Ukraine is bombed, apparently by Russia.

This was normal operating procedure for the Syrian conflict, so we know what to expect.

[PS_RalphW]

Russian foreign minister has now stated that overthrowing the Ukrainian government is one of its war aims.

Ukraine claims to have destroyed 50 Russian ammunition dumps with the US supplied rocket systems.

[Catweazle]

Ukraine claims to have destroyed 50 Russian ammunition dumps with the US supplied rocket systems.

These weapons are blurring the picture as to who is fighting who. If a US weapon system hits a Russian target found by surveillance from a US satellite and guided by a US run GPS system then the Russians can easily think they are fighting the US. The Ukrainian involvement is basically parking the launcher, typing in some numbers and pushing the button.

[clv101]

Absolutely! Some of us have been saying this from day one. The west is using Ukraine to fight a proxy war against Russia.