Heat watch

[clv101]

Met Office and ECMWF are now joining the GFS party. GFS has been modelling 40°C at a huge 15 day lead time (which almost everyone dismissed), but one by one other models have fallen into line. The most recent Met Office model is now producing incredible 25°C 850hPa temperatures (corresponding surface 10-15° warmer).

It's now likely England and UK will see a new record next weekend/Monday IMO.

[adam2]

There is now a Met office amber warning for severe heat covering much of the South.
This appears to be a different warning to the amber heat health alert that was earlier announced. The areas covered and the times are different for the two.

[adam2]

The amber "heat health alert" has now been extended for another day and now covers all of England, previously it excluded North West England. Wales and Scotland are not included in this scheme.

The Met office amber "extreme heat warning" for most of the UK, was increased from Sunday only, up to Sunday and Monday, and it now covers three days, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

I think that both alert systems are now at never before seen levels. Starting to look a bit doomerish.

[adam2]

Met office have issued a red warning for extreme heat in London and parts of the Midlands.
This is the first ever red warning for extreme heat and is considered as a national emergency.
It is looking increasingly likely that the present all time record temperature of 38.7 degrees will be broken.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62177458

[Potemkin Villager]

I am so glad to be on the edge of all this. London is the last place I would want to be in the coming days.

Of course overhead electrical transmission and distribution systems can get rather poorly too if not derated in high ambient
temperatures.

[Mark]

London heatwave: Hammersmith Bridge wrapped in 'giant air conditioning unit' to stop closure:
https://www.mylondon.news/news/west-lon ... d-24486353

[adam2]

I am so glad to be on the edge of all this. London is the last place I would want to be in the coming days.

Of course overhead electrical transmission and distribution systems can get rather poorly too if not derated in high ambient
temperatures.

Agreed, there is in my view some risk of significant heat related in power failures in London and the Southeast. A combination of increased air conditioning demand and high temperatures. There is very little overhead equipment in London but surrounding areas are vulnerable, as are substation transformers.

[clv101]

Good time to review 2003 European heat wave. ~70k people died, ~15k in France. Modelling suggests large parts of England will see temperatures *beyond* what France experienced then. However this even is short lived which will certainly help with health impacts. However, ONS tell us 3.5 million people *currently* have Covid, extreme heat won't help them!

Had LBC on this morning and Nick Ferrari spent the morning belittling warnings. Shocking irresponsibility.

[Catweazle]

Railway lines and Tarmac aren't going to like 40C, so travel will suffer. My well insulated workshop is staying blissfully cool

[BritDownUnder]

There is certainly a big difference between 30C and 40C as I have found out when working in the garden and people in London and Cambridge may be finding out in the next few days. Where I live now it is mostly a dry heat but the more humid heats in Queensland and Northern Territory took a lot more getting used to.

My advice would be to try to keep the heat out of your house. Doors closed, windows closed and curtains closed if necessary. If it lasts only a couple of days then most brick houses would probably not warm up too much.

[kenneal - lagger]

27C and 31% humidity outside but it was significantly above that in the polytunnel where I need to go to take the side shoots off my tomatoes and train them up their supports. I lasted about half an hour in there and have come back to my nice cool office where it is about 24 to recover. I'll have to get back into the tunnel after dinner for another hour or so.

[clv101]

It's now looking like pretty much every km2 of UK is going to break it's local record over Mon & Tues.

[BritDownUnder]

27C and 31% humidity outside but it was significantly above that in the polytunnel where I need to go to take the side shoots off my tomatoes and train them up their supports. I lasted about half an hour in there and have come back to my nice cool office where it is about 24 to recover. I'll have to get back into the tunnel after dinner for another hour or so.

We are thinking alike there. I was doing the same thing just tidying up some self set tomatoes in the poly tunnel at my place on Saturday. A bit of fungus was getting on some leaves that needed spraying with sulphur.

[clv101]

What did folk see today? We observed a high of 35.9°C at 16:10.

[adam2]

Here, North Somerset-------------31 degrees
Neigbours, nearer the sea--------28 degrees
North Wales, by phone------------36 degrees
Stonehaven, by phone-------------30 degrees.

Indoors here-------------------------24 degrees with air con in use.

And at the office building that I used to maintain, 42 degrees INSIDE, 50 degrees in the worst areas. Complete air conditioning failure No one knew how to fix.