New coronavirus in/from China

[PS_RalphW]

North Korea has for the first time admitted to an outbreak, of the BA. 2 subvariant. They probably managed to keep a lid on previous outbreaks, given their rigid social control and very low level of internal travel due to having a medieval level of infrastructure.

None of the population is vaccinated even with the feeble Chinese vaccine (of course the elites will be fully boosted with Pfizer) so we will see just how deadly this variant is, they are a very malnourished nation and limited health service, so Casualties will be high, not that we will hear about them.

I have just spent 4 days in bed, with covid like symptoms, but tested negative. Lateral flows are only 80% accurate.

[adam2]

Covid outbreak in North Korea is in my view likely to be serious and may kill a substantial percentage of the population.

The absence of of any significant testing program means that the outbreak is already almost certainly much worse than is reported.
Vaccinations not generally available.
Poor healthcare, modern medicines not available to ordinary people.
Generally poor standards of hygeine, sanitation, and nutrition.

As well as deaths as a direct result of covid infection, I expect significant mortality from indirect effects. Lack of electricity as power plant workers die of covid. Water supply ditto.
Food shortages as agricultural workers die, and those who survive save limited food supplies for themselves. Normally such actions would result in the army simply shooting the "hoarders". But as the troops start to die, those who survive will concentrate on saving themselves at the expense of following orders.

North Korea is in my view very vulnerable to collapse, primarily because food and fuel are ALREADY desperately short and even a slight reduction in already inadequate supplies could kill large numbers from cold and starvation.
Very sad for the ordinary people, the ruling elite will probably survive for a while but might not have much left to rule over.

I forecast the end of North Korea within a few years.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-61446907

[clv101]

As bad as things are in North Korea, there are worse conditions, less food, poorer healthcare etc in many other places. Several African countries, particularly in the East, and Madagascar are in worse shape. Also obviously Yemen and Afghanistan.

[Mark]

Lateral flows are only 80% accurate.

'More accurate' rapid COVID tests developed by University:
https://www.mmu.ac.uk/news-and-events/n ... Ow.twitter

Highly Sensitive Rapid COVID-19 Test Developed Using Synthetic Nanoparticles:
https://www.insideprecisionmedicine.com ... particles/

[PS_RalphW]

My interpretation of Covid in North Korea is that it will be more like the Indian experience, but not as deadly. India had very little testing, almost no isolation, and also suffered from the much more deadly Delta variant. Spread was very rapid, and far more people died than were officially recognised, iirc about 2 million excess deaths in a very short time. However, this is still a low overall death rate relative to the population of 1.2 billion. The long term impact on the society I suspect has been quite low, not least because it is a society that has a long cultural history of disease and famine and early death.

North Korea will also have a short sharp infection curve. BA2 is about 1/4 as deadly as Delta in a niave population, and many people will suffer only mild disease or none. There is very littls diabetes or obesity, two of the main co-morbidities in the West. The society will take the hit and carry on.

[Vortex2]

Two types of the Omicron known as BA.4 and BA.5 have been labelled as variants of concern in the UK after new evidence on their growth, officials have revealed.

I think that we need a combined monkeypox/COVID BA4+5/flu vaccine.

[RenewableCandy]

I think that we need a combined monkeypox/COVID BA4+5/flu vaccine.

Three shots in one like that would probably kill me!

[PS_RalphW]

UK covid cases are now rising rapidly, with Ba4 and ba5 dominating. Total active cases now over 1 million again. A report in the Independent suggests these variants have evolved to affect lung tissue in a similar way to the alpha and delta variants. This could potentially make this latest wave more serious than the Ba2 wave, but as yet I have not seen reports of rising hospitalisation numbers.

Better half has just had her reduced immunity entitled forth vaccination.

Not heard anything from North Korea recently, guess their omicron wave has peaked.

[PS_RalphW]

The zoe app now reports covid levels back at the January peak levels both nationally and in my local area.

It has finally caught up with me. Fell ill on Friday, first test negative. On the mend now but this mornings test is positive. I had my suspicions when I woke up with a death rattle in my lungs yesterday.

Everybody and their dog are getting this variant.

[Vortex2]

Everybody and their dog are getting this variant.

There seem to be various reports floating around indicating all sorts of damage cause by COVID and Long COVID
The long term side effects of both the virus and the vaccines could well reduce economic output and human lifespans
is anyone in government taking a serious look at this?

[clv101]

All I'm hearing is a lot of doctors and medical academics crying out that government isn't taking this seriously. I've mentioned before, I know three people under 40 suffering seriously from long Covid, one hasn't worked in over two years now, another after two years is now on light duties, part time, the other more recently is now mostly recovered a year on, but still has to be very careful. Overdoing it one day, results in total exhaustion the next. All three self employed, many thousands out of pocket, they are *not* faking it.

Various reports to declining T-cell counts with subsequent infections. Broadly speaking, the current regime of millions of people becoming infected multiple times is a recipe for disaster.

[kenneal - lagger]

............. Broadly speaking, the current regime of millions of people becoming infected multiple times is a recipe for disaster.

The alternative, of restrictions or mass mask wearing, would, unfortunately, be greeted with riots in most countries. The economic costs of a lock down wouldn't be acceptable to many people either.

I think that this is just one of the symptoms of the great decline, of Limits To Growth, that we are just going to have to accept. It will probably weaken the population for the next pandemic and so things will go on in the great decline of our world wide civilisation.

[clv101]

No, it isn't the binary let it rip or lockdowns. Come on, you know there's been loads written about *how* we live with Covid. Ignoring it isn't the answer.

[PS_RalphW]

I am a bit worried about your anecdotes of long term fatigue. My stamina has been reduced to only a couple of hours of physical labour a day already by an earlier brush with cancer. I am still positive, but a short walk this morning tired me out and I am sleeping even more during the day. I am planning on downsizing to a less demanding house, garden and location, but preparing a slightly tatty old hovel into a chocolate box dream country cottage for the market is a lot of work. Getting my new house fitted with solar and decent insulation is also going to be fraught with supply issues as demand for such services is going through the roof.

I may have delayed my personal collapse by a year too long.

[Vortex2]

long term fatigue

For the last year I so I have been suffering fatigue.

Full bloodtests don't show anything.

I'm now retired and have MS.
Perhaps I also had COVID unknowingly?

Anyway, I have no idea what's causing it so I'll just have to live with it.

The era of working 3 solid days without sleep is far, far behind me.