Ukraine Watch...

[kenneal - lagger]

NATO is only showing the Russians that they have no chance of winning if they attack any NATO nation. It is trying to show Putin that he should abandon his dream of a new Soviet Empire.

There would be more chance of WW111 if NATO did nothing because Putin would interpret that as weakness and an invitation to walk into any country that he wants.

WW111 will be started by Russia escalating not NATO. We can only show strength to deter Putin and then the decision to go to all out war is up to a paranoid, megalomaniac psychopath. What could possibly go wrong?

And it is entirely up to Putin how much his forces are worn down in Ukraine. He after all instigated the conflict and it is only in his power to stop it. If Ukraine tried to stop it Russia would take the whole country and in a few years time he would go for another country.

[UndercoverElephant]

WW111 will be started by Russia escalating not NATO.

I am not sure what the difference is. Both sides are escalating. That is not a moral judgement, just a statement of what is actually happening. Not just in Ukraine -- I am talking about the whole situation.

There is also a non-zero and growing chance that should NATO get directly involved in this conflict, that would be the moment China decides to attempt an invasion of Taiwan.

[adam2]

I have heard, from a trustworthy source, that in the last few years that training drills in the British Army have been updated a lot.

Many new drills and exercises are intended to improve physical fitness and proficiency with weapons at the same time. Examples include sprinting up many flights of stairs, and then engaging "enemy" forces with rifle fire from the rooftop.

Another is to carry a "wounded" comrade up or down stairs, and then to use a pistol to kill an "enemy" lurking on the stairs

Physical fitness and proficiency with weapons have always been important, but until recently were considered as SEPERETE facets of training, and not often combined.

These changes were made before the invasion of Ukraine, possibly in response to concerns about terrorism.

[PS_RalphW]

I am certain that the west, and us in particular, are balancing the military aid they send to Ukraine to be the absolute minimum that they need to slow but not stop the Russian advance, this is to keep back as much hardware as possible in reserve, and also to keep Russia in the game, to give Putin the illusion that he can win if he commits more resources to costly advances.

Nato do not want to escalate and if they did it would be a sign that they feared political disunity in the face of economic hardship. The main losers are the a Ukrainian people and the poor of the world who will starve without Ukrainian grain.

All this is with a bau economic outlook. With a limits to growth view of the situation it just seems to be a recipe accelerate global economic collapse with a side order of extra coal burning as we head into climate catastrophe and global population collapse.

[Mark]

Crowded shopping centre hit by Russian strike...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61941287

Ukraine blows up Russian tanks, troops, rocket launchers, planes and other military material and the Russians blow up shopping centres filled with civilians. There's the difference folks.

[PS_RalphW]

We are allowed to see the tanks that Ukraine blows up, and the shopping malls that Russia blows up. There is a lot of unguided munitions flying around on both sides, we dont see where all of it goes. Russia is the invader, and has far more bombs, and by this fact alone is the badder side, but war is messy and a lot of innocent or less guilty people are going to die or be mained on both sides

[Mark]

All true Ralph, but there's a difference between some accidental 'collateral damage' and what the Russians are doing, which is to deliberately target schools, hospitals, apartment blocks, railway stations and shopping centres.... THESE ARE WAR CRIMES.

[Vortex2]

The Russians believed that the adjacent factory was a military site.

Two missiles were fired - one hit the supposed military store .. and the other missed.

That is not a war crime.

The allies in WW2 and in the Afghan, Iraq and Syria conflicts have made similar errors.

[Mark]

Too many Russian 'errors' to be a coincidence.
Vortex, you're starting to sound like a Russian apologist....

[kenneal - lagger]

Is this just another example of Russian incompetence like the sinking of the Moskva due to someone smoking in the magazine?

[Vortex2]

>> Vortex, you're starting to sound like a Russian apologist....

Not at all. I'm just sick of the endless and mindless pro-war pro-Ukraine media blitz which we have been immersed in since Day One of all this.

The history of the conflict and the history and nature of Ukraine are rarely discussed.

As for war crimes, it's not a war crime to screw up a bombing mission ... it will happen in all armed conflicts.

Insisting that anything and everything nasty that the other side does is a war crime will simply mask their TRUE war crimes.

Perhaps one day, as we wade through radioactive ash, we migh regret the hawkish attitudes and actions of Boris, Truss and now General Sir Patrick Sanders, the Chief of the General Staff, and his “1937 moment” comment?

At the end of the day Russia has a small population and a puny economy .. but it's stupidly agressive actions make it a great target for the big boys on the block to show how Churchillian they are.

[clv101]

>> Vortex, you're starting to sound like a Russian apologist....

Not at all. I'm just sick of the endless and mindless pro-war pro-Ukraine media blitz which we have been immersed in since Day One of all this.

The history of the conflict and the history and nature of Ukraine are rarely discussed.

Agreed, it's been really jarring to me how rapidly objective analysis, context, and history has been abandoned in favour for infantile, black and white caricatures.

[mr brightside]

I've always thought they were laying some solid foundations of public opinion from which they might attack. Remember all the dodgy dossier/weapons ready in 45 shit from the Iraq invasion? They know that bullshitting the people won't wash any more, and that if they want public opinion squarely on their side it's going to take more effort than what Blair and Bush put in.

If the MSM were full of stories about Sobibor being run by Ukranians and Azov fighters waving swastika's about, then Kremlin claims of de-nazification might seem relevant. It's a good example of fighting a war on a nonphysical front.

[PS_RalphW]

The evidence around the shopping mall bombing is not favouring the missed target theory. The mall and the factory targeted by 2 missiles were 500m apart and recovered fragments from the site indicate air launched cruise missiles, presumably satellite guided. There is plenty of cctv footage showing the mall area full of people as the missile hit and plenty of direct witness reports.

To be out by 500m by one missile and not the other is implausible. It might have been an intelligence error, but the Russian version of events are not physically possible.

I suppose you could invent a conspiracy theory along the lines of Ukraine feeding Russia false intelligence in order to trigger an attack that would be viewed as a war crime in order to garner more sympathy and military support.

[Vortex2]

To be out by 500m by one missile and not the other is implausible.

The Kh-22 is a missile from the 1960s.

The missile is guided by a gyroscope-stabilized autopilot in conjunction with a radio altimeter.

With that technology I'm surprised they could hit the right town, let alone the right building.

Neither the Kh-22 nor the later Kh-32 uses satellite guidance.

This weapon is esentially an anti-shipping missile using radar terminal guidance to locate high-contrast (radio) targets ...a guidance mode which is not generally usable over land.

My guess is that their impact error probability is probably a circle of a few hundred metres across .. which is probably why they fired two missiles, so that one might hit the target area.

Russian bombers have likely been launching heavy 1960s-era anti-ship missiles in Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry said. The Kh-22 missiles were primarily designed to destroy aircraft carriers using a nuclear warhead. When used in ground attacks with conventional warheads, they “are highly inaccurate and therefore can cause severe collateral damage and casualties,” the ministry said.

From an article published 12th June 2022 ... strangely prescient of the latest attack.