Are we REALLY heading for very bad times in late 2022/early 2023?

[Vortex2]

High Inflation, high interest rates, broken supply chains, high food prices, food shortages, high energy prices, energy shortages, strikes, war, sanctions ..... life looks gloomy.

Should we REALLY expect social unrest and major economic difficulties in a few months time?

If so, how will YOU survive?

[Catweazle]

Today I pulled my copy of Fernando Aguirres's "Surviving the Economic Collapse" off the shelf for the first time in years, yesterday I started clearing an area I'd promised Mrs Cat as a kitchen garden and planning a fenced area to keep chickens for meat, as well as the usual "chickens for eggs" we keep.

So, yes, I do think it's going to get bad.

[clv101]

Yes, it's downhill for the foreseeable - as we've all known for years. Brexit, climate impacts, the pandemic and the war provide the detail, the characters in the story, the straws on the camel's back - but the trajectory has always been clear. Another decade or two of globalised growth was always going to be impossible.

[mr brightside]

I began my effort to chew through LTG 30yr when the war in Ukraine began. I've started it before, but put it down in favour of quantum physics.

[UndercoverElephant]

High Inflation, high interest rates, broken supply chains, high food prices, food shortages, high energy prices, energy shortages, strikes, war, sanctions ..... life looks gloomy.

Should we REALLY expect social unrest and major economic difficulties in a few months time?

If so, how will YOU survive?

The level of social unrest is likely to depend on the behaviour of the goverment. If they continue to provide pensioners with non-means-tested inflation-proof income while increasing numbers of working people cannot afford to feed their children because the government is advocating pay rises below inflation, then at some point the lid will blow off the pressure cooker.

But as we all know, this has always been coming. It was just a question of exactly when and exactly how.

Personally I should be living on my Welsh smallholding by then, growing a lot of my own food. We were hoping to have moved earlier this week but the inevitable delays have prevented it. Still hoping to move before the end of July.

[BritDownUnder]

I am trying to accumulate everything I think will be of use and could be in short supply in the near future. Prior to the Australian electricity crisis last week there appeared to be little panic over here.

At least when the real energy shortages hit Europe in your winter it will be summer over here. I think it will be a little like the Neville Shute novel "On the beach" as the country awaits the inevitable southward drift of the world's problems. Personally, I would like to end my time doing a bit of gardening one late afternoon.

[adam2]

Yes I suspect that we are heading for bad times. Exactly how bad is firstly rather subjective, and secondly is potentially variable.

I expect that natural gas prices will go still higher next winter. And that oil will reach $200 after the American elections. Large scale civil disorder is in my view a distinct possibility.

I perceive some risk of putin going nuclear. And do not forget Iran and North Korea.

A lot depends on what else goes wrong at the same time.
An extreme winter like that of 1963 could prove interesting, as could severe flooding that that of 1953.
Or a major industrial dispute affecting fuel supplies.

[Vortex2]

Here at Chateau Vortex we have takne the "Prepare now, make the most of the few weeks we have before winter arrives" warnings to heart.

We have sold a big chunk of our land in order to fund preparations.
(The sale completed this morning, after weeks of useless solicitors messing around)

We have just ordered two more greenhouses, and will soon be getting rain caputure and some PV in place.

We shall also add further insulation to our eco house.

Essentially, we want to reduce our exposure to inflation and to energy shortages to an absolute minimum.

We will be cutting back or eliminating farm gate sales ... we expect more people to steal stuff from the stand as food becomes more expesnive - and maybe hard to source.

I am also buying a cheap amateur radio - I have a licence.
Being able to communicate with a few others locally if times become tricky could prove useful.

[adam2]

Sounds good. Regarding communication by radio or other means, it can be worth setting up a simple pre-arranged code for important messages, in order that they are meaningless to third parties.

Examples include locations identified by a single letter. For example.
Location W means by the war memorial.
Location T means near the Tesco supermarket.
Location R means at the railway station.

Times can be disguised as amounts of money.
"I have the sixteen pounds that I owe you" means 16-00.

I think that some rule or regulation prohibits coded messages by amateur radio, but whom is going to know.

[clv101]

Today I pulled my copy of Fernando Aguirres's "Surviving the Economic Collapse" off the shelf for the first time in years, yesterday I started clearing an area I'd promised Mrs Cat as a kitchen garden and planning a fenced area to keep chickens for meat, as well as the usual "chickens for eggs" we keep.

So, yes, I do think it's going to get bad.

Which chickens for meat will you raise? We've maintained a flock of the French table bird, Bresse (white with blue legs). Sometimes sell hatching eggs and chicks.

[UndercoverElephant]

Which chickens for meat will you raise? We've maintained a flock of the French table bird, Bresse (white with blue legs). Sometimes sell hatching eggs and chicks.

We will probably be interested in buying some of those off you...

[Catweazle]

Last time we kept Sussex Light, a dual-purpose bird. We keep Campbell and Khaki Campbell ducks as well as rescued Warren chickens and a few oddities from neighbours, I'd be happy to use only duck eggs, they're miles better than chicken eggs, so a meat-only chicken is an option. I'll need to look into Bresse birds, they look like the "gourmet" option if they're fed a special finishing diet.

[kenneal - lagger]

People are all too quick to blame Brexit, fuel shortages and other stuff for the problems we are seeing but very few talk about high fuel prices. These feed through to everything else that we buy.

Another thing which feeds through to everything else is high property prices. And no one talks about them unless it is to say what a good thing they are. Idiots!!

[BritDownUnder]

Another thing which feeds through to everything else is high property prices. And no one talks about them unless it is to say what a good thing they are. Idiots!!

Some realistic interest rates are soon going to fix that. Already happening in Australia.

[adam2]

Some of the indicators for approaching doom are obvious and have already been mentioned.

Substantially increased fuel prices, likely to go higher still in winter. Possible physical shortages.
Substantially increased food prices and the threat of shortages.
Risk of war in Ukraine escalating to a wider conflict, perhaps nuclear.

Other less obvious risks also exist.
Growing risks of industrial disputes in critical industries, oil tanker drivers, bus drivers, port and shipping staff, electricity distribution, highways maintenance.
Significant rioting or civil disorder, perhaps in the dark during a power cut.
Large scale abstraction of gas and electricity resulting in fires and explosions, and loss of revenue.
A growing distrust of the police and court system. The left claiming that they are too harsh on "people trying to feed their children" Whilst the right claim that "organised gangs are getting away with stealing sports shoes and portable electronics"
More shops close down due to shoplifting. Others go "thief proof" Which is hated, with calls to ban the practice.

And a general dissatisfaction with the political process. Elections are no longer lost in a fair fight, but are "stolen"

I would urge stocking up on food and fuel, there are many existing threads on these subjects to which new enquiries and suggestions may be added.