Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

UK to send mlrs to Ukraine with 70km (or 70 mile?) range. We will see how soon or how many and with how much ammunition in the coming weeks.

It is also reported elsewhere that Russia is not using Russian infantry in the urban fighting but the Ukrainian separatists who have been fighting since 2014. They are not generally well equipped, and I wonder what their morale will be like when they see how much damage Russian artillery has done to their putative new capital city.

[Vortex2]

UK to send mlrs to Ukraine with 70km (or 70 mile?) range

60km .. although Biden set the limit at 70km.

[Vortex2]

It is also reported elsewhere that Russia is not using Russian infantry in the urban fighting but the Ukrainian separatists who have been fighting since 2014.

Hmm .. they seem to be doing well enough.
In that nasty trench warfare video it was locals who pushed the Ukrainians out.

[clv101]

Yes, I think this is a key point. Russia's role is the East is primarily supporting the Ukrainian separatists with heavy armour - not putting tens of thousands of Russian conscripts on the front line.

[Mark]

In that nasty trench warfare video it was locals who pushed the Ukrainians out.

Naughty - the Russian separatists and the Ukrainians are BOTH 'locals'...., that's the problem.....

[Vortex2]

the Russian separatists and the Ukrainians are BOTH 'locals'

They have 'self-identified' as being different.

[kenneal - lagger]

Bore off invalid.....
OK if you post some new/different insight into the conflict, but you don't.
We all know that you're either Russian or in the pay of the Russians and you're just being antagonistic...

I don't have any particular insights. But UE has also posted contradictory things repeatedly, and also continually avoids explaining himself. It may be boring, but this weak argumentation should be called out. Just because it agrees with the commonplace position of this board, doesn't mean it should go with examination

He has 'a feeling' that the Russians will lose the ground they have recently won in a few weeks, but also believes they lost in the first week. And hasn't said anything to back that up, or, ostensibly, shown any interest to reappraise that position on the light of current events on the ground.

Russia lost the war the day that they invaded Ukraine because it made the whole world see that Russia is an aggressive bully that cannot be trusted. It showed that the Russian government will say what is convenient at the time and do differently a couple of days later. It showed all the countries bordering it that they are liable to invasion if they transgress Putin's laws. It persuaded two countries on its borders, which had been neutral for hundreds of years, that they should join NATO for their protection. Putin's action persuaded Germany and a few other countries to increase their defence spending to the NATO standard. It showed the whole world that Russia's much vaunted armed services are a paper tiger that endemic corruption has hollowed out to the extent that they have to rely on fifty year old technology much of the time. It showed that the Russian military couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery let alone the logistics to support a small localised invasion force. It showed Putin that, were it not for the fact that NATO is a defensive alliance, he should be worried about a NATO invasion because his forces couldn't quell the resistance of a small, almost third world, army let alone the full might of the thirty odd NATO nations with their up to date weaponry. The resistance of the Ukrainian people has shown the Russian people, if they were to look, that Putin isn't all he is cracked up to be and is a very fallible leader of a government which doesn't know what is really going on in Russia let alone the rest of the world; I mean, why didn't he know that the corrupt government he is running was creaming off most of the money which was supposed to be going for the maintenance and up grading of his forces? His invasion has resulted in the almost out of date weapons in the NATO arsenal being replaced by new weapons so should he wish to invade any NATO nation in the next few years those countries will be fully equipped and well trained in their usage. Meanwhile, Russian equipment and manpower is being rapidly ground down. Russia's already declining population has declined even further as peaceable Russians have fled the country and many of the men who might otherwise have procreated and kept the population at least steady are now in their graves or badly wounded. Western sanctions have removed the Russian arms industry of the ability to buy the western technology to rebuild their lost high tech weapons.

Is that enough explain why he lost the war in the first day? He might eventually conquer parts of Ukraine or even the whole country but Russia will be a shadow of itself for many decades to come. Mind you if it persuades the Kremlin that unrestricted corruption is bad for the Kremlin, and the rest of the country, it might do some good for the Russian people. But taking over a devastated Ukraine will be a cost for the Russian economy and a significant drag for decades to come if it is to gain any advantage from the takeover. If Russian doesn't rebuild the devastation that it has caused it will show the rest of the world what a bankrupt ideology and nation that Putin's Russia is.

[kenneal - lagger]

Also he is losing high price markets for his oil and gas and they are being replaced with markets which heavily discount the price for his products as he is desperate for any income.

[clv101]

All true Ken - but, there's always a but, you are writing from the business as usual point of view. This may be reasonable, but what if this invasion is just the opening round of an ongoing collapse-associated conflict. What if we are rapidly unwinding globalisation, replacing it with a last man standing, nationalistic world, dominated not by free trade and cooperation but by scarcity economics and realpolitik.

Collapse now and avoid the rush. The 'rich', service based, import dependant western economies could be a lot more vulnerable to what the future brings than Russia - even if they 'lose' the war.

[kenneal - lagger]

If/when collapse does come I think we are starting from a better position than a country that has been systematically striped of its wealth for decades. Mineral wealth below the ground will be of little use to people unless it is close to the surface because the technology to remove deep level minerals will disappear in the collapse.

Russians will be better off because their population density is much lower than ours but do they have the technology available to get them through Siberian winters without the current technology of central heating from central boilers that they now rely on?

At least we in Britain don't usually have very cold winters

[Mark]

At least we in Britain don't usually have very cold winters

Until the Gulf Stream collapses, which will cause a drop in UK temperatures of 3 or 4°C.....

[adam2]

A farm not far from me has given free temporary homes to three families from Ukraine.
Only temporary as the homes though very generous in size are basic and not suited to winter use.
Single story, concrete block construction with corrugated iron roof.
Toilets, showers, and coin op laundry in a block detached from the dwellings.
Cooking primarily outdoors.
Restricted electricity supply, 10 amps per home.
A very large open plan living area, and five large bedrooms.

An open fire but no other heating, so unsuited to winter use.

Questions asked by the new arrivals included

"is all this space just for us" ----------Yes it is.
"Do we have to share with another family"--------Not indoors. The outdoor facilities are shared.
"Are the showers heated" ------------Yes but you have to light the fire that heats the water.
"Is all that outdoor space for our use, the field and the paved area.-------------Yes it is.

One family had formerly run a soviet era collective farm, and described the home as "very similar to that found on many farms"
Others had lived in modern but very cramped flats in urban areas and described the houses as "Basic but but so much larger than we are used to"

A local charity supplied beds and other furniture, bedding and basic household equipment. Much laughter upon unpacking two large cartons of blankets "Product of Ukraine" ! Assorted cheerful patterns but all in the national colours of blue and yellow. 85% wool and 15% % "other stuff"
The bare concrete floors were not very welcoming, but coconut fibre matting has now been supplied, and rugs.

[UndercoverElephant]

At least we in Britain don't usually have very cold winters

Until the Gulf Stream collapses, which will cause a drop in UK temperatures of 3 or 4°C.....

...which will offset climate change and leave us back where we were at the end of the 20th century.

[Vortex2]

...which will offset climate change and leave us back where we were at the end of the 20th century.

...which will make the UK a prime destination for climate refugees from the rest of the world ...

[Vortex2]

Ukraine has insisted it will not demine waters around Odesa to allow for grain to be exported, as it said the threat of Russian attacks on the Black Sea port city is still too high. D.Tel