Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

I agree.

[Mark]

as the rest of the world accelerates away from it...?

That's not really happening though is it. The world is still ~80% fossil fuel powered, like it was decades ago.

How does your list of pros/cons change through the collapse lens? What does 'long term pariah state' mean as globalisation unravels? Russia is left holding the physical resources - energy, chemicals, land, minerals etc... 'Long term economic decline' is already baked in, for all countries.

That's why I put a '?' against moving away from oil/gas....
It's what the world should be doing, but are we just seeing a lot of blah blah blah ?
Think some of the necessary steps are being taken in this country, but far too slowly.
Also, if/when the fighting stops, the price of oil/gas should trend downwards again ?

Russia may well have energy, land and minerals, but it exports much of its resources as unprocessed commodities.
The 'value added' bit is converting the commodities into something useful and Russia doesn't do as much of this as it could.
The Russian chemical industry is actually relatively small in global terms, although they are a major player in fertilizer...
The picture is complex, but long term sanctions will put the brakes on most forms of industrial development in Russia.
OK, they might have enough grain to feed their people when it gets really bad, but I don't feel we're anywhere near that point yet...

Look at the DRC - one of the most resource rich countries in the world, but also one of the very poorest and worst to live in...
Will the Russia or the DRC be the places to be when collapse fully kicks in - personally, I suspect not

[PS_RalphW]

The rumour mill is giving Putin 3 years to live, possibly with blood cancer, and going blind. One paper suggests he might already be dead and his inner circle hide the fact with. Prerecorded footage and body doubles at public events. They could face a military coup after his death and the military may quit Ukraine to prevent further degradation

[Mark]

Maybe...., or just wishful thinking ?

[Vortex2]

body doubles at public events.

Body doubles wouldn't have weird shakes etc.

[PS_RalphW]

Biden says us won't supply rocket systems which could attack Russian territory.

[UndercoverElephant]

The rumour mill is giving Putin 3 years to live, possibly with blood cancer,

Leukemia usually kills people much more quickly than that. Google says it is thyroid cancer...

[PS_RalphW]

There are several different types of thyroid cancer. Survival probabilities vary sharply between types, and the progression stage iit has reached when treatment starts.

Some are entirely curable if caught early. The more aggressive forms reduce 5 years, relative probability of survival to 35%.

[PS_RalphW]

EU reaches comprise deal to stop 90% of oil Russian imports into EU by end of the year. Rumania and two other countries will still import by pipeline. Gas imports continue. Russia will be able to export most of the oil to other parts of the world, so economic impart will be limited. Also, embargo cheating will also occur.

[Vortex2]

The rumour mill is giving Putin 3 years to live, possibly with blood cancer,

Leukemia usually kills people much more quickly than that. Google says it is thyroid cancer...

One version kills VERY quickly ... as short as a couple of weeks or so.
Due to the speed most people never meet anyone or know anyone with this variant.

Another variant can chug along for decades, and you can keep working.

[RenewableCandy]

I'm getting a bit worried about the news coverage. There was an item about Ukrainian deserters on the Beeb yestern and today on Channel 4 they had a feature on some experienced Naval chap who set off, in good faith, to help with the fighting and found it was an absolute bardak.

Now these are both obviously true, but I have a horrible feeling we're being softened-up for part of Ukraine being torn off.

Even *that* wouldn't be so terrible, but it's pretty obv that if Russia gets the Donbas (or whatever), then they're not going to stop there.

[adam2]

The rumour mill is giving Putin 3 years to live, possibly with blood cancer,

Leukemia usually kills people much more quickly than that. Google says it is thyroid cancer...

One might hope that he dies sooner rather than later.
BTW, I consider it to be in poor taste to wish someone dead simply because one dislikes them, under normal circumstances. However circumstances are not normal, this is WAR even though not directly involving us. In time of war I consider it acceptable, possibly even admirable, to wish enemy leaders dead.

Likewise suicide is USUALLY sad, but an exception can be made in wartime. I was not alive in the last war, but would have seen nothing sad in hitler killing himself. If putin kills himself, them rejoicing or partying IMHO is fine.

[UndercoverElephant]

Now these are both obviously true, but I have a horrible feeling we're being softened-up for part of Ukraine being torn off.

It is quite clear that some people in the western world want that to happen, either because they think the war cannot end any other way, or because they think it would be dangerous to "humiliate Russia any more than that". The Ukrainians will have some say in this though.

[clv101]

My feeling is Ukrainian resistance will fail in the East soon, within weeks with Russia then focusing on the South, capturing the entire coast including Odessa by autumn. 'Stability' will emerge with a landlocked western Ukraine remaining.

This is not what I want to see, but it's where I think we'll be in six months.

[UndercoverElephant]

My feeling is Ukrainian resistance will fail in the East soon, within weeks with Russia then focusing on the South, capturing the entire coast including Odessa by autumn. 'Stability' will emerge with a landlocked western Ukraine remaining.

This is not what I want to see, but it's where I think we'll be in six months.

I don't have anything more than feelings either, but something is telling me the Russians cannot keep taking their current level of losses for that long.