Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

Oh yes, because Russia is blitzkrieging its way across eastern Ukraine....

Meanwhile, back in reality, Russia has been reduced to using 50 year old tanks to make tortuously slow progress at the price of completely destroying everything in their path and suffering huge ongoing losses of both men and equipment. I bet Putin is well pleased.

What deft debating tactics?! Can you not see the difference between these two statements, because I think everyone else can. Are you in effect withdrawing your previous declaration?

My "previous declaration" was an opinion, not a declaration, and no I see no reason to withdraw it. According to its own pre-war expectations, Russia is losing this war. There is no way it is going to take over the whole of Russia, and I don't believe it can sustain these levels of losses for more than a few weeks. It will also struggle to hold on to the territory it has already taken in the long term.

[UndercoverElephant]

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly profitable and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Fixed for you. The rest is conjecture.

You are living in a fantasy world.

[invalid]

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly profitable and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Fixed for you. The rest is conjecture.

You are living in a fantasy world.

Who do you think is benefitting more from high energy and commodity costs, NATO or Russia?

Well, you have a habit of not stating your opinions as facts. Maybe you should consider qualifying your opinions with 'i think' more often.

[BritDownUnder]

I am surprised that there is apparently so little partisan activity behind the lines in the Ukraine war. I would have thought that if the people know that there are going to be killed or deported then they would resist. Or maybe the majority have retreated with the Ukrainian army. Or maybe they are waiting for winter.

With regard to the recent Russian advances, they appear to have focused on a relatively narrow front and using a large number of resources. Quite how many resources they have is up for debate. Their birth rate is quite low for their population size (actually Uganda has more births per year than Russia, but it is still highest in Europe and a lot more than Ukraine) and a lot of births are to non-Russian minorities. Perhaps they are throwing in a lot on this front and they will be exhausted by the end of the summer. We will see.

As the great Joseph Stalin said...

Quantity has a quality all of its own.

As the great General Patton said...

You don't win a war by dying for your country. You win a war by making the other poor sonofabitch die for his country.

The West has to supply Ukraine with the means of killing Russians in the field in large numbers. Simple as that.

[UndercoverElephant]

The West has to supply Ukraine with the means of killing Russians in the field in large numbers. Simple as that.

Maybe. The French and Germans are making rather different noises now, as are some voices in the US.

When Putin said "What point is there in having a world if Russia isn't in it?", everybody assumed he was talking about starting a nuclear war. And he probably was when he said it, but it is taking on a new meaning now. Russia is taking huge losses of men and equipment already, is economically in free all and is burning any remaining political bridges with the west. Russia cannot win, but it can certainly do enough to ensure the deaths of hundreds of millions of people in the "global south" through starvation, and accelerate the demise of the doomed monetary system. In other words Russia is going to try to bring an end to the world as we know it, even if it means the end of Russia as we know it, not through nuclear war but through all of the global side-effects of this war. The war is steadily destroying both global food security and the what is left of the global economy. Putin is trying to make sure that even if he doesn't win, everybody else loses.

[clv101]

When Putin said "What point is there in having a world if Russia isn't in it?", everybody assumed he was talking about starting a nuclear war. And he probably was when he said it, but it is taking on a new meaning now. Russia is taking huge losses of men and equipment already, is economically in free all and is burning any remaining political bridges with the west. Russia cannot win, but it can certainly do enough to ensure the deaths of hundreds of millions of people in the "global south" through starvation, and accelerate the demise of the doomed monetary system. In other words Russia is going to try to bring an end to the world as we know it, even if it means the end of Russia as we know it, not through nuclear war but through all of the global side-effects of this war. The war is steadily destroying both global food security and the what is left of the global economy. Putin is trying to make sure that even if he doesn't win, everybody else loses.

Yep. One thing that is TOTALLY lacking from any mainstream western analysis is the collapse framework. I touched on this in the nuclear war thread I posted a few months back. *If* one accepts collapse is here and some combination of resource shortages, climate change and economic collapse will crash the system in coming decades, halving global population by the end of the century - what do you, as Putin, do?

The collapse framework surely leads to very different decisions than the progress framework the west simply takes for granted.

How does a nation win *relatively* as the world loses?

[PS_RalphW]

i think Russia is winning in Ukraine in the same way as the US did in Vietnam. They are destroying the village in order to save it.

They see themselves (or delude themselves) as defending the Donbas republic from the evil hoards invading from the west who want to spread godlessness (or other evil doctrine) with the help of superpower hardware and huge amounts of belief in their own nationalistic cause.

We need to remember that we in the West are not without fault when it comes to invading countries, and our tactics have been equally brutal when fighting wars against peoples we dont value so highly. That doesn't in any way excuse this war of course..

[Vortex2]

Not sure if this has been mentioned here yet ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8piI7JB02c

[PS_RalphW]

it is not the first time Russia has been accused of using thermobaric munitions in Ukraine. Of course the US and other powers have used them, their use is not considered a war crime except in areas likely to cause heavy civilian casualties. That video showed housing close to the explosions, but I did not spot direct strikes. Russia is using almost every weapon in their conventional arsenel, including lots of very old tanks, as well as their latest high tech weapons. Thay have far more of the former.

[clv101]

Here's a snipit of first hand accounting: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... rodonetsk/

I expect the Ukrainian defence to collapse in the East within the next week or two and for Russia to capture the Donbas region. I also get the feeling that western support is waning, the realpolitik of energy pricing is going to trump inter-nation solidarity. The EU are wavering and the Whitehouse desperately needs lower energy prices.

Ukraine can't win a war of attrition against Russia, Russia simply has far more resources to throw at this conflict and Ukraine's western support can only dwindle over time as local politics moves on to other things - chiefly our democracies demanding cheaper oil and gas!

See this: Ten More European Gas Buyers Open Ruble Accounts for Payments
The EU is *not* able to sanction Russia energy - any military assistance we give Ukraine is dwarfed by the $billions we give Russia for energy.

[Vortex2]

Russia has been accused of using thermobaric munitions in Ukraine

I suspect that the shock waves etc from these will cause large numbers of barotrauma cases.

Even with conventional shelling barotrauma is creatng a large number of casualties in the field.

[Mark]

Who do you think is benefitting more from high energy and commodity costs, NATO or Russia?

What is the potential endgame now - Russia eventually captures Donbas and imposes a 'peace' of sorts ?

For Russia:
Some sort of very weak 'face save' for Putin
Some extra agricultural/industrial territory gained and better access to the Black Sea
Many thousands of dead soldiers and many billions worth of lost equipment
Probable ongoing guerilla resistance that drains resources for decades
Short/medium term gain from selling oil/gas, as the rest of the world accelerates away from it...?
Country becomes a long term pariah state in the same camp as N Korea, Iran, Syria etc.
Long term economic decline as sanctions hit economic development and the brain drain accelerates
Increased vulnerability to losing other parts of the country, such as the far east to China

For Ukraine:
Loss of agricultural/industrial territory and massive damage to remaining infrastructure
Many thousands of dead soldiers and civilians
Short/medium term economic struggles and maybe long term debt to pay for all the arms/equipment ?
Probable ongoing guerilla resistance that drains resources for decades
Bitter, traumatised and impoverished population

Seems like win/lose for Russia and lose/lose for Ukraine ?
Ukraine may as well fight on ?

[clv101]

as the rest of the world accelerates away from it...?

That's not really happening though is it. The world is still ~80% fossil fuel powered, like it was decades ago.

How does your list of pros/cons change through the collapse lens? What does 'long term pariah state' mean as globalisation unravels? Russia is left holding the physical resources - energy, chemicals, land, minerals etc... 'Long term economic decline' is already baked in, for all countries.

[clv101]

These videos are pretty f'ed up. These guys are fighting for their lives, cold, wet, it's sowing... with a bloody soundtrack!

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1529 ... EAXsg_f7Ag

[kenneal - lagger]

It seems that it is probably the French and Germans who are leading the surrender brigade. That will cause a huge rift between them and the former Soviet bloc countries. The Baltic States and Poland will be left feeling very vulnerable.

If Russia isn't given a good hammering they will be back for more in Ukraine in a few years and they will have learned that they only have to keep the pressure on for a few months and the surrender monkeys will be at it again.

The next time Putin or his successor won't stop at Ukraine though. If Trump or a proxy gets in there will be no NATO either as Trump or his proxy will have emasculated it soon after getting in.