Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

It looks increasingly likely Russia will gain full control of Lehansk in the next few weeks. This might be enough for Putin to be able to declare victory and move to a defensive strategy of holding ground whilst continuing indescriminate bombing for 'defense' against Ukrainian aggression. Putin will then start a charm offensive which will be selling grain and oil to whichever starving countries start backing Russian gains as liberation.

I do not think Russia will overextend their advances again as they have been so badly burned with high casualities and hardware losses. They are very short of well trained soldiers and could not hold much more ground than they already have.

Of course Ukraine will not stop trying to counter attack, but they are very dependent on free weapons flow from the west, and already there are signs of disunity, and promised supplies are always late arriving. As yet, morale is still high but it may not stay high forever, if the front line stalls but the bombing continues.

Ukraine's economy has been devastated by this war and at best will take decades to recover, if ever, given that we are past peak of industrial civilisation. Russia is probably doing quite well financially as the oil, gas and grain prices will more than make up for lost production. However, the Russian economic isolation and net emigration of the educated will cause long term further decline in the nation. We are in a new cold war, which will end in either A hot war or another economic implosion by Russia in 10 or 20 years.

Just my 2 penny's worth.

[Vortex2]

The Marshall Zhukov approach that the Russians are now using is very hard to deal with.

Massive rolling artillery barrages, massive troop deployments, tanks now protected by infantry ... puny high tech hand-held rocket launchers etc have little role in such a campaign.

Putin is thrashing the Ukrainians at the moment.

I assume he replaced the original commanders with 'traditional' commanders.

[adam2]

Recent reports suggest that putin is winning.
Far more slowly than he presumably hoped for, but still winning, albeit slowly.
Putin is paying a very heavy price in both lives and in military equipment, but he has plenty of people and a lot of equipment.

A lot of russiam military equipment seems old fashioned, obsolete, unreliable, and poorly maintained, BUT they have vast amounts and are presumably not worried about expending old rubbish that was overdue for replacement in any case. Quantity does at least partly compensate for poor quality.

Many of the russian troops seem ill trained, ill disciplined, poorly equipped, and often not very keen on fighting. But russia has a huge supply of conscriptable cannon fodder. As with hardware, quantity does partly make up for poor quality.

If this carries on, Ukraine will be part of russia in a year or two. Followed by Finland ? or Poland? or Moldova?

[clv101]

Recent reports suggest that putin is winning.

Yes, Russia's capture of the East was inevitable - their 'stretch' target of taking Kyiv and all of Ukraine is completely off the table though - at least for the next five years.

If this carries on, Ukraine will be part of russia in a year or two. Followed by Finland ? or Poland? or Moldova?

No chance Russia will make progress west of the river, too much western assistance and an easily defended line. Any NATO attack is impossible as any incursion will be met with overwhelming air defence. No Russian tank will make it a mile inside NATO territory without receiving death from above.

Henry Kissinger probably called it right earlier this week.

[invalid]

It may or may not have gone 'wrong' for Russia in the beginning, but I think they're perfectly capable of adjusting their tactics, and of course they're still fighting and still attacking. Can Ukraine put up as much resistance in the South and East as they did around Kyiv? Perhaps not.

Those frantic assertions, repeated numerously in earlier pages of this thread - notably by UE, that 'Russia will be defeated', are now looking very premature.

[kenneal - lagger]

Russia needs to be told that any attack west of the Dneipro will be regarded as an attack on a NATO country with the appropriate response. He can give ultimatums and so should the west. Meanwhile Ukraine should be given the long range weapons that they are asking for.

Letting Putin have that much of Ukraine though will give him a huge weapon in the form of food as a lot of Ukraines grain comes from that area and Putin will be able to turn the grain tap on and off as he wishes. He doesn't give a damn what happens to poor countries as long as he can give the west a tweak when he feels like it.

It would be best if he is thrown out of Ukraine completely and Russia is given such an embarrassing pounding that Putin is pensioned off somehow.

[kenneal - lagger]

It may or may not have gone 'wrong' for Russia in the beginning, but I think they're perfectly capable of adjusting their tactics, and of course they're still fighting and still attacking. Can Ukraine put up as much resistance in the South and East as they did around Kyiv? Perhaps not.

Those frantic assertions , repeated numerously in earlier pages of this thread - notably by UE, that Russia will be defeated, are now looking very premature.

I wouldn't gloat too much if I were you in-valid. Russia is having to resort to fifty year old T52 tanks as they're losing so many to western weapons supplied to Ukraine. Russia could yet again over stretch itself as it can't make much more equipment because of its inability to make the high tech parts that it formerly imported from the west. In that regard it is a third world country.

It much vaunted drone it held together with duct tape, relies on Japanese DSLR cameras and commercial electronics for control rather than military grade stuff and so is extremely vulnerable to electronic jamming. Hence the huge losses of their intelligence gathering equipment. corruption is causing their military problems in yet another area.

It is also suffering a brain drain as her better educated, more informed people run to the west. Meanwhile western supplies are ramping up as manufacturers output increases. Russia only beat the Germans in WW2 because of western supplies and those same western supplies could beat Russia in this war. By the way the West beat Germany the day before Russia did in WW2 and Russia came second.

[Mark]

By the way the West beat Germany the day before Russia did in WW2 and Russia came second.

I agree with most of what you say kenneal, but this last comment does you no service.

I'm sure you know that Russia suffered significantly more losses in WWII both in terms of people and infrastructure - it's partly a hangover from WWII that has caused a deep seated fear of invasion in the Russian psyche, which Putin is playing on at the moment... luckily, neither the UK or US have that type of experience in our recent national histories...

[UndercoverElephant]

It may or may not have gone 'wrong' for Russia in the beginning, but I think they're perfectly capable of adjusting their tactics, and of course they're still fighting and still attacking. Can Ukraine put up as much resistance in the South and East as they did around Kyiv? Perhaps not.

Those frantic assertions , repeated numerously in earlier pages of this thread - notably by UE, that Russia will be defeated, are now looking very premature.

Oh yes, because Russia is blitzkrieging its way across eastern Ukraine....

Meanwhile, back in reality, Russia has been reduced to using 50 year old tanks to make tortuously slow progress at the price of completely destroying everything in their path and suffering huge ongoing losses of both men and equipment. I bet Putin is well pleased.

[adam2]

That is rather the point that I made, russian tanks and other equipment are indeed old and obsolete, but they have huge numbers and can well afford substantial losses.
Progress in indeed "tortuously slow" but it is still progress. And if it continues will eventually capture all of Ukraine.

Hopefully someone will kill putin.

[Catweazle]

Meanwhile Ukraine should be given the long range weapons that they are asking for.

Tricky decision, on one hand it's going to ramp up the destruction, but on the other hand it might be the best hope of putting Russia back in its' box for 20 years.

I'm inclined to support the flow of weapons, for the selfish reason that Putin is not only disarming Russia every day the war continues but also pushing himself closer to an unexpected accident.

[invalid]

Oh yes, because Russia is blitzkrieging its way across eastern Ukraine....

Meanwhile, back in reality, Russia has been reduced to using 50 year old tanks to make tortuously slow progress at the price of completely destroying everything in their path and suffering huge ongoing losses of both men and equipment. I bet Putin is well pleased.

What deft debating tactics?! Can you not see the difference between these two statements, because I think everyone else can. Are you in effect withdrawing your previous declaration?

[Catweazle]

Oh yes, because Russia is blitzkrieging its way across eastern Ukraine....

Meanwhile, back in reality, Russia has been reduced to using 50 year old tanks to make tortuously slow progress at the price of completely destroying everything in their path and suffering huge ongoing losses of both men and equipment. I bet Putin is well pleased.

What deft debating tactics?! Can you not see the difference between these two statements, because I think everyone else can. Are you in effect withdrawing your previous declaration?

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly costly, and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Support from the West has made it into Putins worst nightmare, exposing the corruption and ineptitude of his armed forces.

There is no way Putin can attain his original goals, the best he can hope for is occupation of a resentful and destroyed country surrounded by heavily defended NATO borders. Ukrainian resistance, with help from sympathisers outside, will make the occupation hell for the Russian soldiers and those stories will go home with every soldiers body. It's Afghanistan with wheat.

[invalid]

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly profitable and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Fixed for you. The rest is conjecture.

[PS_RalphW]

The rest is a very reasonable summary of reality.

Arms manufacturers will indeed be making large profits as a result of this war. Sadly, brutal and unjustified military invasion tends to have that effect.

I fear Putin is learning from His predecessor Stalin and will systematically relocate the Ukrainian population to Siberia and install Russians with promises of free farmland, watch out for the landmines