Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

In no way is Biden better from Putin than Trump was. Trump was deeply compromised on all levels and clearly Putin had a strong hold over him. The Afghanistan withdrawal was a major embarrassment but a political one, not a military one. If anything, is shows how weak externally imposed governments are over fanatically nationalistic peoples - even if they are nominally decent and democratic and equality loving. (in practice deeply corrupt of course).

We are beginning to see the return of real politic where might trumps right or morality. However, for now might (in the form of better weapons) still resides in the west at least over Russia.

[Mark]

How much of Ukraine should Zelensky give up?
Not one inch. He has already stated he will retake the Crimea. He should be supported all the way. Send the message out to Xi and Putin. Invade and you will lose.

Democracy and sovereignty. Really important. Worth fighting for.

So, Zelensky is fighting to protect/retake Ukraine, or to send a message to Xi and Putin ?
That's the problem - when does Zelensky's war for Ukraine fully morph into NATO's wider war ?

[Mark]

1/ Putin has been planning this for a very long time. He has in plain sight been weakening governments/institutions in the west by purchasing politicians, Schroder, Merkel, Berlusconi, Salvini, Le Pen, Macron, Corbyn (unilateral disarmament) Osborne (evening standard) Mandelson (EU commissioner) there are others but you get the drift.
2/ Biding his time for when he perceived the west to at its weakest. Biden, Macron, and Schultz were the perfect tripartite for inaction. Germany
cretinously reliant on cheap Russian energy. Macron, failed to reform the worlds most expensive welfare state, with a population with a huge entitlement syndrome, and thus reliant Russia not doing anything naughty whilst he goes around banging on about a EU defence force to buy French weapons, whilst calling Nato brain dead.
And Biden, weak, indecisive, Afghan debacle humiliation, perfect for Putin.
3/ All countries of the west have debased their currencies, so Putin/China/India have set up Bretton woods 3 on the 27/2/2022 and backed their currencies with commodities. Ouch this is going to hurt.
4/ We will now see a reduction in living standards which will be unprecedented in scale. Most fiat currency nations will have to cut back government spending on welfare. I think the public is already being hardened to the endless ' tell us how terrible your life news stories'
5/There will be a rush to spend more on weapons R&D. The tin opener affect of the NLAW's has been sobering. Looks like BAE is selling upgrades for Russian tanks that can frustrate the NLaw.
6/The EU will gently revert to its original purpose as a trading block. The political supranational part has been delivered a grievous blow after Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO. In its hour of need what have the EU practically done? Send hugs and kisses and read our policy on solidarity and values.
7/ There is going to be prolonged multi year famine. Coupled with climate change. Some regions which have some resources are going to be visited by forces from another countries soo.. Those without resources will suffer terribly. Migration will be used as political weapons.

So yes, the world will get smaller, more local, less safe. It's how we respond that will make all the difference.

1/ Like all those Tory Party donors you conveniently forgot to mention....., and Trump, the most obvious Putin puppet of them all....
2/ If Putin was planning this for as long as you say, he missed a trick by waiting until 'weak' Biden got in. Biden has supplied a lot of help to Ukraine in terms of arms and intelligence. It's a point for debate, but I think this conflict would have played very differently with Trump in charge..
3/ The Russian economy is now a busted flush, regardless of all their oil and gas. The one good thing about this conflict is that it is now focusing minds in the west on getting away from fossil fuels...
4/ Ah yes, that old chestnut...., how about cracking down on the tax evasion of the mega rich corporations/individuals, rather than aiming again at the most vulnerable in society (typical Tory response)
5/ Oh yes, there will be no shortage of money for the arms industry, that's for sure
6/ The EU isn't a military force, as far as I know - they've set sanctions which could be tougher - agreed
7/ Agreed. that's why the sooner the war ends the better - fewer civilian deaths/casualties, less physical destruction, less degradation of the land, lower flows of refugees, less risk of it spreading to other countries etc. etc.

[Stumuz2]

So, Zelensky is fighting to protect/retake Ukraine,

Yes

or to send a message to Xi and Putin ?

Both. Xi is watching events carefully. He has failed to explicitly send arms to support Russia

That's the problem - when does Zelensky's war for Ukraine fully morph into NATO's wider war ?

NATO does not have a wider war. NATO is a defensive organisation. It is only activated when a aggressor invades. It is why Finland/Sweden ran to NATO and not the EU when Russia invaded Ukraine.

NATO's war is something you would hear on Russian state TV.

Democracy and sovereignty is hated by autocrats. It is worth fighting for.

[Stumuz2]

1/ Putin has been planning this for a very long time. He has in plain sight been weakening governments/institutions in the west by purchasing politicians, Schroder, Merkel, Berlusconi, Salvini, Le Pen, Macron, Corbyn (unilateral disarmament) Osborne (evening standard) Mandelson (EU commissioner) there are others but you get the drift.
2/ Biding his time for when he perceived the west to at its weakest. Biden, Macron, and Schultz were the perfect tripartite for inaction. Germany
cretinously reliant on cheap Russian energy. Macron, failed to reform the worlds most expensive welfare state, with a population with a huge entitlement syndrome, and thus reliant Russia not doing anything naughty whilst he goes around banging on about a EU defence force to buy French weapons, whilst calling Nato brain dead.
And Biden, weak, indecisive, Afghan debacle humiliation, perfect for Putin.
3/ All countries of the west have debased their currencies, so Putin/China/India have set up Bretton woods 3 on the 27/2/2022 and backed their currencies with commodities. Ouch this is going to hurt.
4/ We will now see a reduction in living standards which will be unprecedented in scale. Most fiat currency nations will have to cut back government spending on welfare. I think the public is already being hardened to the endless ' tell us how terrible your life news stories'
5/There will be a rush to spend more on weapons R&D. The tin opener affect of the NLAW's has been sobering. Looks like BAE is selling upgrades for Russian tanks that can frustrate the NLaw.
6/The EU will gently revert to its original purpose as a trading block. The political supranational part has been delivered a grievous blow after Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO. In its hour of need what have the EU practically done? Send hugs and kisses and read our policy on solidarity and values.
7/ There is going to be prolonged multi year famine. Coupled with climate change. Some regions which have some resources are going to be visited by forces from another countries soo.. Those without resources will suffer terribly. Migration will be used as political weapons.

So yes, the world will get smaller, more local, less safe. It's how we respond that will make all the difference.

1/ Like all those Tory Party donors you conveniently forgot to mention....., and Trump, the most obvious Putin puppet of them all....
2/ If Putin was planning this for as long as you say, he missed a trick by waiting until 'weak' Biden got in. Biden has supplied a lot of help to Ukraine in terms of arms and intelligence. It's a point for debate, but I think this conflict would have played very differently with Trump in charge..
3/ The Russian economy is now a busted flush, regardless of all their oil and gas. The one good thing about this conflict is that it is now focusing minds in the west on getting away from fossil fuels...
4/ Ah yes, that old chestnut...., how about cracking down on the tax evasion of the mega rich corporations/individuals, rather than aiming again at the most vulnerable in society (typical Tory response)
5/ Oh yes, there will be no shortage of money for the arms industry, that's for sure
6/ The EU isn't a military force, as far as I know - they've set sanctions which could be tougher - agreed
7/ Agreed. that's why the sooner the war ends the better - fewer civilian deaths/casualties, less physical destruction, less degradation of the land, lower flows of refugees, less risk of it spreading to other countries etc. etc.

1/ I mentioned Osborne
2/ He would not have invaded if Trump was in power. One physco recognises another
3/ Russian economy is in rude good health. 3 times more cash for half the oil and gas. Ruble up against the dollar since pre invasion
4/ Usual someone else will pay chestnut
5/ Good. Imagine if Corbyn had got rid of our nuclear deterrent. Shiver
6-
7-

[automaticearth2]

Dumb (Sholtz) and Dumber (Macron) wanting Ukraine to accept whatever Russia wants:

[https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/16 ... on-news-vn]

It might be in the Express, but I can imagine that the Germans and French are still so desperate to hang onto Putin's coattails due to Germany's reliance on Russian fossil fuels and France's close ties due to French exposure to Russian banks. Says it all, really. As one former Gazprom executive said - 'the EU needs to ditch its reliance on Russian fossil fuels, and the war will be over tomorrow '.

[adam2]

New reports state that putin is taking personal charge of military operations, and making decisions that would normally be delegated to junior or mid ranking officers.
Considered to be another sign that the war is going badly. Hopefully it will go even worse with putin taking personal charge.

[clv101]

This can hardly help. His situational awareness will be lower than military staff closer to the action, his experience in operational military matters will be relatively poor compared to career military men, his personal lines of communication will be relatively poor due to his status, will he be told the brutal, honest truth by relatively junior officials?

I can't see any benefit (for Russia) of Putin taking greater personal control of the operation.

[Stumuz2]

Also very senior military staff often have close contacts with their opposite number in the enemies military. It is a career advantage to understand each others position. Putin will probably view such contacts as weakness.

[Vortex2]

Azovstal defense operation ended by Ukraine

[Catweazle]

New reports state that putin is taking personal charge of military operations, and making decisions that would normally be delegated to junior or mid ranking officers.

Obvious propaganda from Putin, seeding the idea that the plan was fine but bumbling officers messed it up.

[PS_RalphW]

Also a defence analyst on Russian prime Time TV has given an assessment that Ukraine has a highly trained, highly motivated army with increasing levels of Western modern military aid, and this will go a long way against Russian superior numbers. Also Ukraine has plans to arm a million volunteers.

Clearly this is expectation management against earlier reports of high success against a drunken rabble.

[Vortex2]

increasing levels of Western modern military aid

Yep - for example, one third of the US stock of Javelin missiles.

[Catweazle]

increasing levels of Western modern military aid

Yep - for example, one third of the US stock of Javelin missiles.

A small price to pay for crippling Russias huge tank fleet, NATO will consider it money well spent.

[Potemkin Villager]

Borders have always changed.

https://t.co/7amKovkWZB