Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

Here's how the New York Times used to write about the Azov Battalion:
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1525 ... 5KMQQ&s=19

[Stumuz2]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... stock.html

Very cogent article from Dominic Lawson. Showing Macron for what he really is, a Russia appeaser.

" 'The Anglosphere is saving Ukraine, while the EU is saving itself', Drea wrote on May 9: 'If Ukrainians were relying on the EU alone, the war might already be over. And we'd be looking at a weak, dismembered and Russia-controlled Ukraine.

'Such has been the speed of Britain's response, even President Zelensky acknowledged that other countries should 'follow the example of the UK'. So much for Washington and London not caring about Europe"

[Vortex2]

Excellent article arguing that Russia is trapped in a war it cannot win but cannot extricate itself from either:

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/05/put ... n-ukraine/

Excellent.

So we (the West) have pushed a nuclear-armed Russia into a corner that they cannot leave.

Can any see a problem with this?

[Stumuz2]

Russian talking head saying Poland next for de-nazification.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... zification

[Mark]

Most sane people hope this war will come to an end at some point soon, but neither side is ready for that just yet.
However, at some point, there will have to be a negotiated peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
But who would broker it ?

The UN has been totally invisible and Russia is a permanent member of their Security Council...
Personally, I can't see UN Peacekeeping troops being the endgame here...

One of Ukraine's goals is/was membership of the EU.
Macron is the current President of the Council of the EU, but I can't see Russia seeing them as neutral.

So, who would be acceptable to both sides to broker a deal - any suggestions ?
The candidates are few, but I think that Viktor Orbán might have a useful role....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ktor-orban

[Stumuz2]

However, at some point, there will have to be a negotiated peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

How much of Ukraine should Zelensky give up?

[clv101]

However, at some point, there will have to be a negotiated peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.
But who would broker it ?

Certainly not us! The UK has taken this opportunity to fight a proxy war with Russia, the Anglosphere seem to need a permanent war, Middle East, Afghanistan, Cameron wanted more involvement in Syria, I guess Yemen just isn't hot enough. Pretty sad really.

I think the EU could still play a role in the ultimate settlement, but can't lead it.

[Stumuz2]

So, how much of Ukraine should Zelensky give up?

[clv101]

However, at some point, there will have to be a negotiated peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

How much of Ukraine should Zelensky give up?

I have no idea. But we must understand borders are not fixed. Today's boarders are different to 1990, which were different to those in 1960 which were again very different to those in 1930. 2050's boarders will again be very different to today's. That's reality. That's a large part why most countries spend a significant amount of their treasure on weapons.

Looking for black and white, hard, fixed, solutions is a recipe for disaster in the decades ahead. If we want to avoid dozens of deadly wars erupting all over the world we need to recognise how the world has changed, it's a very different place to a couple of generations ago. The population, resources, technology, climate dynamics have changed, and are continuing to change.

The idea that we can somehow simply lockdown the national boarders for the coming century is for the birds.

[Stumuz2]

Agree.
So what you seem to be saying is, prepare for invasions, and the invader gets a bonus?

Current EU values changing dramatically, being led by Macron

https://www.politico.eu/article/europes ... n-ukraine/

[clv101]

...and the invader gets a bonus?

Some will, some won't, as has always been the way. What I'm really saying is that the 21st century is likely to feature a lot more conflict than the post WWII era we all know so well. How we deal with that is anyone's guess but it would be good to avoid nuclear conflict.

[Mark]

The idea that we can somehow simply lockdown the national boarders for the coming century is for the birds.

Agreed. I always think that we view national borders very differently in this country, due to being an island

How much of Ukraine should Zelensky give up ?
No idea, but it will very much depend on the state of play on the ground at the time.
Personally, I don't think that Russia should be 'rewarded' for its aggression, but I also fear backing them into a corner with no exit.
The longer the war goes on, the more the territory becomes degraded and the less valuable it becomes.
Zelensky also needs to think about the health and wellbeing of his citizens, not just territory.
There won't be a perfect solution - there just needs to be a mutually acceptable one.

[PS_RalphW]

The territory has strategic value even in its blasted form. The land is extremely fertile and farming can be reinstated quickly. The coast gives control over water transported imports and exports. Minerals can still be mined once infrastructure is rebuilt.

Putin may gain little in the short term, but if he holds on to the ground already gained, he will have permanently weakened Ukraine and reduced it to a client state of the west, for as long as the west retains any interest in it. Ukraine will not settle for that.

[Stumuz2]

...and the invader gets a bonus?

Some will, some won't, as has always been the way. What I'm really saying is that the 21st century is likely to feature a lot more conflict than the post WWII era we all know so well. How we deal with that is anyone's guess but it would be good to avoid nuclear conflict.

Completely agree with all that. We are seeing the first scenes of how the world will divvied up during the energy descent.
So far IMHO it is proceeding like this,
1/ Putin has been planning this for a very long time. He has in plain sight been weakening governments/institutions in the west by purchasing politicians, Schroder, Merkel, Berlusconi, Salvini, Le Pen, Macron, Corbyn (unilateral disarmament) Osborne (evening standard) Mandelson (EU commissioner) there are others but you get the drift.
2/ Biding his time for when he perceived the west to at its weakest. Biden, Macron, and Schultz were the perfect tripartite for inaction. Germany
cretinously reliant on cheap Russian energy. Macron, failed to reform the worlds most expensive welfare state, with a population with a huge entitlement syndrome, and thus reliant Russia not doing anything naughty whilst he goes around banging on about a EU defence force to buy French weapons, whilst calling Nato brain dead.
And Biden, weak, indecisive, Afghan debacle humiliation, perfect for Putin.
3/ All countries of the west have debased their currencies, so Putin/China/India have set up Bretton woods 3 on the 27/2/2022 and backed their currencies with commodities. Ouch this is going to hurt.
4/ We will now see a reduction in living standards which will be unprecedented in scale. Most fiat currency nations will have to cut back government spending on welfare. I think the public is already being hardened to the endless ' tell us how terrible your life news stories'
5/There will be a rush to spend more on weapons R&D. The tin opener affect of the NLAW's has been sobering. Looks like BAE is selling upgrades for Russian tanks that can frustrate the NLaw.
6/The EU will gently revert to its original purpose as a trading block. The political supranational part has been delivered a grievous blow after Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO. In its hour of need what have the EU practically done? Send hugs and kisses and read our policy on solidarity and values.
7/ There is going to be prolonged multi year famine. Coupled with climate change. Some regions which have some resources are going to be visited by forces from another countries soo.. Those without resources will suffer terribly. Migration will be used as political weapons.

So yes, the world will get smaller, more local, less safe. It's how we respond that will make all the difference.

[Stumuz2]

How much of Ukraine should Zelensky give up ?
No idea, but it will very much depend on the state of play on the ground at the time.
Personally, I don't think that Russia should be 'rewarded' for its aggression, but I also fear backing them into a corner with no exit.
The longer the war goes on, the more the territory becomes degraded and the less valuable it becomes.
Zelensky also needs to think about the health and wellbeing of his citizens, not just territory.
There won't be a perfect solution - there just needs to be a mutually acceptable one.

What's the view like there on the fence?


How much of Ukraine should Zelensky give up?
Not one inch. He has already stated he will retake the Crimea. He should be supported all the way. Send the message out to Xi and Putin. Invade and you will lose.

Democracy and sovereignty. Really important. Worth fighting for.