Brexit Watch

[adam2]

The french are again protesting about fishing rights. Apparently we have only granted 12 fishing permits out of 47 requested.

Tough ! they should be glad to have got 12 licences. I am not convinced that ANY French boats should be allowed to fish in our waters.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58729883

[kenneal - lagger]

Many of those rights are in our Marine Conservation Areas which we couldn't enforce because of the rights of the EU boats. The EU, especially France, weren't interested in conserving fish. With bolshy fishermen like that you can see why.

[Mark]

As the Brexit thread has been closed, thought I'd start a new one to discuss the consequences.....

My 3 major concerns pre-Brexit were:
(1) Increased legislation/bureaucracy and hence reduced trade with the EU
(2) Replacement of low skilled Polish/Romanian labour with Indian/Nigerian etc. in order to secure trade deals
(3) The break-up of the UK (medium-term)

Still very early days, but I've seen nothing so far to dissuade me from any of these predictions.

On the positive, I'll start the list with:
(1) Quicker rollout of the COVID vaccine
(2) ..........?
(3) ....?

Thoughts ?

The Local Elections results for the SNP and Sinn Fein got me thinking back to my Brexit predictions...
Particularly in relation to points (2) and (3)....

Brexit was a good idea if it means more Indians can come to the UK:
https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/n ... n-come-uk/

Dominic Raab warns EU that action on Brexit protocol can't be 'put off' after Sinn Fein WINS Northern Ireland elections and threatens reunification poll within five years – while DUP is set to boycott Stormont unless Brussels backs down
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... tions.html

[Stumuz2]

Before we go on.
I have mentioned the elephant graph a few times, You have mocked it it in equal order.

Could you explain what you think the elephant graph is. This will help a more insightful debate about what brexit is or isn't.

[Mark]

Before we go on.
I have mentioned the elephant graph a few times, You have mocked it it in equal order.

Could you explain what you think the elephant graph is. This will help a more insightful debate about what brexit is or isn't.

You could argue the facts on the ground - or do you accept that points (1), (2) & (3) are proven ?
And/or you could provide alternative points as to the benefits of Brexit that we should now be seeing....
Instead, all you can offer up is more elephant dung...

[Stumuz2]

Before we go on.
I have mentioned the elephant graph a few times, You have mocked it it in equal order.

Could you explain what you think the elephant graph is. This will help a more insightful debate about what brexit is or isn't.

You could argue the facts on the ground - or do you accept that points (1), (2) & (3) are proven ?
And/or you could provide alternative points as to the benefits of Brexit that we should now be seeing....
Instead, all you can offer up is more elephant dung...

'nuff said.

[Catweazle]

Before we go on.
I have mentioned the elephant graph a few times, You have mocked it it in equal order.

Could you explain what you think the elephant graph is. This will help a more insightful debate about what brexit is or isn't.

I'm probably not the only person who would appreciate an explanation of this "elephant graph" you keep referring to. Actually I might be the only person, nevertheless, what is it ?

[Potemkin Villager]

Before we go on.
I have mentioned the elephant graph a few times, You have mocked it it in equal order.

Could you explain what you think the elephant graph is. This will help a more insightful debate about what brexit is or isn't.

I'm probably not the only person who would appreciate an explanation of this "elephant graph" you keep referring to. Actually I might be the only person, nevertheless, what is it ?

Surely this is misspelling, or possibly even misspeaking. Possibly elephant grap would fit the bill?

[kenneal - lagger]

Yes, what is it?

[Stumuz2]

It is one of the most important graphs of the last twenty years. Perfectly explains Trump, Brexit, Le Pen, Podemos, 5 Star, Sinn Fein etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37542494

Curiously, most lefty friends and acquaintances do not really want to engage with it.
Too big a question that is so simple. So like Mark and others, they will try and mock and ridicule instead of seriously engaging with the issues. But t'was ever thus. It is comforting to them that heterodox voters can be safely labelled thick, racist, etc.

[Stumuz2]

Before we go on.
I have mentioned the elephant graph a few times, You have mocked it it in equal order.

Could you explain what you think the elephant graph is. This will help a more insightful debate about what brexit is or isn't.

I'm probably not the only person who would appreciate an explanation of this "elephant graph" you keep referring to. Actually I might be the only person, nevertheless, what is it ?

Surely this is misspelling, or possibly even misspeaking. Possibly elephant grap would fit the bill?

No. straight over my head.
Was it humour, criticism?

[PS_RalphW]

What this graph shows is two things. From a global perspective globalisation has worked in improving the economic lot of the developing world - far fewer people in India, China, etc. live in abject poverty or on the bread line. This has been at the expense of the low income demographic in Western nations, who have seen zero net gain in 20 years. For 90% of the global population the world has become more equal.

The second thing it shows is that the world's rich have got a lot richer. In the Western world inequality has got a lot worse. Global resources used by the top 10% by global income are higher than those used by the lower 50%.

Now the limits to growth are becoming apparent to far more people, large numbers of the low income Westerners are seeing real falls in income and falling to or even below the breadline. This is going to cause major social unrest in the coming years, unless the 10% give up a lot of their luxury. There is no prospect of them doing this willingly, as Western countries are electing ever more right wing and overtly capitalist governments, who screw down their national poor who have just voted them in. Again.

[BritDownUnder]

I think rapidly rising property prices/renting costs (OK there may be some debate as to whether property prices have risen with respect to wages or whether wages have fallen with respect to property/rental costs) are also a big problem.

The lack of saving among lower earners in the West is also a big issue. People are getting new phones every year and going out eating and on holidays when people in their position 40 years ago would not. This lack of savings and income diverted to property and spending is keeping them down. Outsourcing of industry can’t help either.

I don’t disagree with the graph but it doesn’t explain the underlying issues.

[Stumuz2]

This has been at the expense of the low income demographic in Western nations, who have seen zero net gain in 20 years. For 90% of the global population the world has become more equal.

Yes, for the poorest in India/China the graph does show a vast improvement in living standards. But, i think you miss the point a bit referring to the 'low income demographic'
The low income demographic were the traditional working class i.e middle income. What the elephant graph shows powerfully, is the hollowing out of the middle income earners over the last 30 years. We used to have a much wider middle income society. Therefore more, of the largest cohort of workers, have become much poorer.
How did they become poorer? Manufacturing was shipped out. Services that could be done remotely were shipped out. Real earnings were brutally suppressed by mass uncontrolled immigration. Corporations and banks that should have failed were bailed out, and the tax payer bailed in, and the real bill given to the poorest in society through withdrawal of safeguards for the poorest.

We then have to look back and see what government first bailed out the richest people in society and bailed in the poor, and which ones allowed uncontrolled immigration to drive down wages.
This is the point my lefty friends start shuffling their feet and wanting to talk about the weather.

Until we grasp the enormity of the elephant graph, we will never understand Trump, Brexit etc. If you are from the rustbelt USA voting for Trump in a perfectly logical thing to do. Ditto Brexit.

[Stumuz2]

I think rapidly rising property prices/renting costs (OK there may be some debate as to whether property prices have risen with respect to wages or whether wages have fallen with respect to property/rental costs) are also a big problem.

The lack of saving among lower earners in the West is also a big issue. People are getting new phones every year and going out eating and on holidays when people in their position 40 years ago would not. This lack of savings and income diverted to property and spending is keeping them down. Outsourcing of industry can’t help either.

I don’t disagree with the graph but it doesn’t explain the underlying issues.

My dad during the late 60/70's kept a family and home going on a single average pay packet. My mum didn't need to work.
Could a person do the same on the median wage in the UK today? If you think no, then that's the elephant graph in action.

And as for saving forget it. There is nothing left over. Excess savings are needed for bailouts.