Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

The MSM have got the public behind this war to the point where Liz Truss can spout about UK involvement like that and seem to be a champion of freedom and democracy. There doesn't seem to be a concerted counter effort to push the issue of this being another US proxy war, and until there is our involvement may only deepen.

It isn't just another US proxy war. This is not like some war in some far off part of the world, where nobody is really on our side. Ukraine is now indisputably part of the western world. This is exactly why Ukraine became such a problem for Russia - Ukraine was the most important territory which used to be firmly "under the Russian sphere of influence" but was turning to the west. That transition still wasn't complete until very recently - that's why Ukraine couldn't join NATO or the EU. Parts of it were still on the fence, or being fought over. But the Russian invasion changed all that.

This war isn't just about territory. It's about values. It's about the levels of freedom and democracy enjoyed in the western world, and about the rule of law. People, quite rightly, do not want to live in a country governed by a corrupt authoritarian kleptocracy.

There is no way back from where we are now. There is no way to spin this as a US proxy war, because that's not what it is. It's a NATO proxy war, and it is being fought on behalf of the entire western world - of "European civilisation" globally. Finland and Sweden are joining NATO. And when it is over the border between Russia and the West will be a new cold war border. Russia's relationship with the west is not going to be "normalised", because there's a new world order emerging, and Russia is going to be part of an Asian block led by China, and including India and most of the "middle east".

I will keep saying it: this looks like WW3 to me. And by that I mean it is going to mark the boundary between the world order that emerged after WW2 and a new world system. There are two things which are definitive of this. The first is the United Nations, which is now completely defunct. And the second is the $US-dominated fiat money system, from which Russia has been expelled and which China seeks to replace with a gold-backed system.

[Vortex2]

people are flying the ukrainian flag high and proud from their cars and their houses. I

Silly billies.

I knew relatively little about Ukraine before this nonsense kicked off.

I have done a fair bit of investigation since ... and it's fairly clear that neither side has clean hands.

It's been a fairly hot war since 2014.

Most of the stuff that I have viewed or read suggests that Ukraine is not a Western European style democracy ... the culture and behaviour are much more tribal and agressive.

Also Ukraine isn't really a single place - even before the war it's really been two clearly different regions .. so what does flying the Ukrainian flag really mean?

See:

[clv101]

It's increasingly looking like the only thing that will 'freeze' this conflict is a new border, a new iron curtain. Not as far west as the map above but including most of the territory currently occupied by Russia.

I don't expect the west to have the appetite to push Russia back.

[Mark]

Vortex - it's complex, and also depends how far you want to go back...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populatio ... viet_Union

Soviet records suggest that Stalin deported 571,000 people from Ukraine between 1940 and 1953, but the actual number could be a lot greater.... the replacement Russian population (mainly in the East ?) seem to mostly ally with Russia, but those deported may well still see Ukraine as their homeland.... plus, as I understand it, there are a lot of mixed marriages/households...

If there is a new line to be drawn, will it be recognised by the UN ?
Or just left to fester for years to come ?

[adam2]

Even "drawing a new line" would not end this war IMO.
Russia would still want the rest of Ukraine, and would be emboldened by their (partial) military victory in gaining part of Ukraine.

An overt invasion might be off the agenda for a bit, but I would expect a lot of Russian backed/Russian organised "peoples uprisings" whereby the people near the new border regions demand a "more representative government" that will cooperate with Russia, and they could then invite Russian troops in for peacekeeping.

Repeat in Finland.

[adam2]

22 battle groups against a civilian drone and a 35g fragmentation grenade. Who will win?

Against a SINGLE drone, the 22 battle groups will obviously win.

If large numbers of drones are deployed, and if each drone drops say a dozen grenades before the drone succumbs to enemy action, then those with the drones might well win.

Heavy artillery is easy to put out of action by killing the crew, damaging the gun, or blowing up the ammunition. All of which are well within the capabilities of a small grenade dropped accurately.

Armoured vehicles can be destroyed by larger bombs, but within the capabilities of industrial drones.

[PS_RalphW]

Unconfirmed reports that a Russian frigate has been hit by missile(s) near snake Island

[kenneal - lagger]

Zelenski is a Russian speaker from the south east of Ukraine and there are millions of refugees from the Russian speaking areas of eastern Ukraine. They have fled westwards and not east to Russia. Does that show evidence of a people wanting to rejoin Russia?

Putin, Vortex, has united both populations in their desire to be Ukrainian and like Zelenski there is evidence that they are giving up the Russian language in droves in protest at the invasion.

The large scale Russian theft of Ukrainian grain stocks and agricultural equipment is reminding Ukrainians of the Holodomor, Stalin's campaign of starvation against Ukraine, and further setting Ukrainians against being a part of Russia.

Ukrainians will fight to the death against Putin's Russia because they know that they face genocide if they are taken.

[BritDownUnder]

Vortex - it's complex, and also depends how far you want to go back...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populatio ... viet_Union

Soviet records suggest that Stalin deported 571,000 people from Ukraine between 1940 and 1953, but the actual number could be a lot greater.... the replacement Russian population (mainly in the East ?) seem to mostly ally with Russia, but those deported may well still see Ukraine as their homeland.... plus, as I understand it, there are a lot of mixed marriages/households...

If there is a new line to be drawn, will it be recognised by the UN ?
Or just left to fester for years to come ?

I read somewhere that Donbas was majority Ukrainian before the 1920s but due to a thing called the Holodomor the cities became Russian majority due to settlers being brought in to replace the dead people.

[kenneal - lagger]

There are ethnic Russians scattered around all the former Warsaw Pact States as a result of communist tinkering with population loyalties. At one time they were feared as a fifth column but after the Ukrainian debacle many of these people have changed their minds and are more than happy to be in the west where their economic futures are a lot rosier.

Like Zelensky many are now not using the Russian language any more but using the local tongue in protest at Putin's actions. Being Russian is no longer a shield against Putin's shells, rockets and bombs it would seem.

[Vortex2]

Came across theis YouTube gem:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1W5o3Xz5OI

[adam2]

I have heard of at least two groups of Ukrainian defenders using industrial shotguns in combat. These guns are not intended for hunting, home defence, or military use but are intended for the removal of build ups of slag or clinker in large furnaces. Sometimes also for other industrial purposes.

Larger caliber than hunting shotguns, often 8 gauge. Not readily portable, generaly fixed on a stand in order that the operator may aim as needed, but only over a limited arc. More like a small artillery piece than a sporting gun.

Not portable, nor long range, but very effective at moderate ranges. Single shot, but easy to reload for fairly rapid fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0ganAXehok Shows one being fired on a range, unusually, and presumably for the novelty value.

[adam2]

And another video showing an industrial shotgun being used as intended, and also shows the manufacture of the special cartridges. Each pellet is about the size of a pistol bullet, and each cartridge contains a dozen or more.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWVdeA3tUnA

[Vortex2]

The UK will provide an extra £1.3bn in military support to Ukraine, in a dramatic escalation of assistance for Volodymyr Zelensky’s forces as they fight the Russian invasion. The Independent

"The new funding comes on top of the UK’s existing £1.5bn support to Kyiv, which included around £400m in humanitarian aid and grants to the Ukrainian government, and unlocking over £700m in additional World Bank lending through loan guarantees.

It is the highest rate of UK military spending on a conflict since the height of the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.
(...)
The extra funding has been drawn from the UK’s reserves – funds the government has set aside for the most pressing emergencies – and includes £300m of military kit announced by Boris Johnson earlier this week.

The electronic warfare equipment includes a counter-battery radar system, GPS jamming equipment and thousands of night vision devices."

[UndercoverElephant]

The UK will provide an extra £1.3bn in military support to Ukraine,

Looks like the magic money tree hasn't expired after all.

I think people are going to be asking why the government can find £1.3bn for Ukraine, but can't do anything about the "cost of living crisis".