Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

But this is why I’m going to stop posting on this subject.

So you keep saying, but your posts haven't actually stopped.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports that many civilians killed near Kyiv during the Russian occupation had been hit by anti-personnel artillery rounds that are the military version of (and far more effective than ) a nail bomb.

[Stumuz2]

I’m very happy with the moderation here. There’s never a good reason for personal insults and those are quite rightly removed.

I know very few of you on here agree with me on the whole situation, but I’m grateful not to have simply been banned out of hand

One thing I hope we can all agree on is a quick end to the war, and quick end to any further loss of life

Agree with all your points.

[PS_RalphW]

Two fires reported at an oil depot in Russia 50km from Ukrainian border. In all probability another missile attack from Ukraine, although neither side will say so.

[kenneal - lagger]

Two Gazprom executives and their families, wife and daughter in both cases, have been found dead, one in Russia where the authorities have said it was murder and then suicide and one in Spain where it is still being investigated.

[kenneal - lagger]

Two fires reported at an oil depot in Russia 50km from Ukrainian border. In all probability another missile attack from Ukraine, although neither side will say so.

Another case of workers on a fag break would be too much of a coincidence even for Putin I would think. It will be interesting to hear what the excuse is this time!!

With the Russian air defences being that bad, I'm surprised that the Ukrainians haven't gone after the Crimea bridge. That would be a coup!! There is always the possibility that the air defences were switched off for an own forces attack to cover up for the fuel in the bunkers having been sold off! Again!!! I'm surprised that Zelensky hasn't broadcast that thought to stir things up in Russia.

[UndercoverElephant]

So the Russian all-out offensive in the Donbas has basically failed. All the Russians can do is lob shells and rockets at the entrenched Ukrainian positions - they either aren't attempting to take territory with tanks, or their attempts are being repelled. I don't know how accurate the figures on this page are, but if they are anything remotely close then this war has been nothing short of catastrophic for Russia, and it appears they are throwing more men and equipment after those they've already lost: https://minusrus.com/en?v=1648007431105

Meanwhile, western equipment continues to pour into Ukraine. The question now is how much territory the Ukrainians can ultimately retake. Russia is going to lose this war.

[Vortex2]

Russia is going to lose this war.

Hmm .. they must be getting quite miffed.
The whole of the West is now against them in an apparent attempt to enforce Russian regime change ... or even to destroy Russia entirely.

Even if Putin goes, there are plenty of old guard who could easily do something stupid.

For the first time in my life I am starting to believe in phrases such as the 'military-industrial complex'.

It would be very peeving to suddenly find that the reality I have lived in all my life was in fact a sham.

[UndercoverElephant]

Finland and Sweden jointly announce they are joining NATO. Pretty soon by the look of it.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... plications

[BritDownUnder]

I’m very happy with the moderation here. There’s never a good reason for personal insults and those are quite rightly removed.

I know very few of you on here agree with me on the whole situation, but I’m grateful not to have simply been banned out of hand

One thing I hope we can all agree on is a quick end to the war, and quick end to any further loss of life

Agree with all your points.

I don't agree with the quick end to the war. All this will achieve is a suspension until next time Russia wants some land. Russia needs to be ground down and weakened and the US defense secretary has said things along the same lines.

The immediate concern is to hold the Eastern front in the Donbas and continue to grind them down. It's a strategic struggle between the Rimland and the Heartland going on. Mackinder would be smiling - but then again he thought the Heartland will win eventually. Let's hope not.

[PS_RalphW]

It's too soon to say Russia has lost this war completely. The UK is now saying they have lost 600 tanks and 15,000 troops so far, but they are hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly railways and oil supplies, to weaken the defence logistics. We do not know how fast the promised Western weapons are arriving, or how many Ukrainian troops are Casualties. Germany and France are not being so generous with weapons, there is no guarantee that resolve will hold as economies weaken.

There are reports of unrest in the Russian speaking areas of Moldova - undoubtedly stoked by Putin in an attempt to widen this war

And it needs saying Putin started this, he can end it tomorrow by withdrawing all troops and going home to lick his wounds. Russia as an national entity is quite safe from the west. The current leadership will no longer be accepted at high table until they start behaving better.

[Stumuz2]

I don't agree with the quick end to the war. All this will achieve is a suspension until next time Russia wants some land. Russia needs to be ground down and weakened and the US defense secretary has said things along the same lines.

The immediate concern is to hold the Eastern front in the Donbas and continue to grind them down. It's a strategic struggle between the Rimland and the Heartland going on. Mackinder would be smiling - but then again he thought the Heartland will win eventually. Let's hope not.

I think Russia will find out the foreign wars are ruinously expensive. I think Nato's plan is to grind down the Russian forces by attrition. The very expensive kit Russia though it was investing in, has become the target for Ukraine/Nato. The process of slowly but surely taking out air defences, radars, missile launchers, ships, tanks, made easier by a network of symmetrical and Asymmetrical intelligence gathering probably will be decisive.

It was Charles de Gaul that made the USA default on their debts in 1972. He knew how expensive the military is. He realised that there was no way the Americans were paying for the massive military build up in Vietnam through national savings. They were printing the currency. They defaulted, because of the enormous cost of the military.

Russia has the same problem.

An example. My brother joined the UK forces at the age of 17. He retired at 42.
25 years service. He got a huge lump sum at 42, enough to buy a house. He also got a pension indexed linked to the day he pops his clogs. His current pension is £1700 a month. This will go up a lot with the current inflation. He served 25 years and will probably receive 50 years pension of pension.

Wars and the military are very expensive.

[BritDownUnder]

It's too soon to say Russia has lost this war completely. The UK is now saying they have lost 600 tanks and 15,000 troops so far, but they are hitting Ukrainian infrastructure, particularly railways and oil supplies, to weaken the defence logistics. We do not know how fast the promised Western weapons are arriving, or how many Ukrainian troops are Casualties. Germany and France are not being so generous with weapons, there is no guarantee that resolve will hold as economies weaken.

...

The current leadership will no longer be accepted at high table until they start behaving better.

I think you raise good points. Russia can strike quite well at the Ukraine infrastructure, bridges and railways I presume. Attacking towns and cities is probably a waste of weapons but take out a vital bridge is another matter. The NATO strategy needs to win the economic war by destroying a greater economic value than the weapon used to destroy costs. If they can destroy ships even better. I think they should go for the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol or off the Ukraine coast.

I am surprised why Ukraine has not undertaken more 'partisan' activity in Russian overrun territories yet - unless we are not hearing about it.

Attempting isolating Russia from the rest of the world will probably backfire. They have a lot of friends in Africa and Asia and a lot of countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa that abstained in UN votes. Forcing these lot to choose will not end up well for the West I think.

You are right, France and Germany are useless cowardly countries. They would have sold out Ukraine long ago. I saw a video on Reddit that showed a destroyed Russian armoured vehicle that had a French designed (by Thales) Made in Russia thermal imager that improved aim and targeting for tanks.

[UndercoverElephant]

Attempting isolating Russia from the rest of the world will probably backfire. They have a lot of friends in Africa and Asia and a lot of countries such as India, Brazil and South Africa that abstained in UN votes.

The UN is irrelevant now. It is completely broken. The security council cannot function.

[adam2]

"Radiation levels at Chernobyl reported to be abnormal, according to UN expert" As reported on BBC news website at 13-22 today 26/042022.