Vortex2 wrote: ↑19 Apr 2022, 08:54
............
We have heard of around 200 badly burned which is bit high .. but a burning ship isn't the same as army combat.
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Ships are mobile ammunition dumps and a magazine exploding can send a flash right through a ship as well as blowing it apart which is why all crew members of British ships anyway don flash masks when at action stations. Burn injuries would quite likely be a high proportion of injuries.
I read that a Turkish ship which was first on the scene only picked up about 50 casualties and Russian ships didn't turn up for quite a while. With the low sea temperatures at the moment that would mean that it would be unlikely that many more sailors survived.
I have also seen a cartoon of a sinking Russian ship being towed away by a Ukrainian tractor!!
Whatever the survivor numbers on the Moskva, sailors are no good without a ship to sail in...
With the new Russian offensive, losses are going to pile up on both sides, including large numbers of innocent civilians....
There are only losers in this conflict.
From what I can see, the majority made it off. Some 240 were suited and booted back on shore, some more will be alive but not fit enough for parade.
The Moskva did have enough time to lower the rigid lifeboat using the crane and all the inflatable life rafts seem to have been deployed. There were other Russian ships in the area and conditions were reasonable for rescue.
Some sailors will have been killed immediately by the attack and some more will have succumbed to fire and secondary explosions but from available evidence I suspect ~3/4 made it off alive.
There are reports that Russia is deploying upto 20,000 mercenary troops from Syria, Libya and elsewhere in the Dombas attack . The report is that they are not given heavy armour support or APCs to ride in, the implication is that they are cannon fodder to flush out the Ukrainian defensive positions for later bombardment.
Of course there is no way to test these reports at the moment, and I do not know the financial arrangements of the foreign troops fighting on the Ukrainian side.
To me, the biggest question is why the Moskva doesn't seem to have made any attempt to defend itself. On paper, it simply should not be vulnerable to cruse missiles like the Neptune. It has the long range S-300 system which should be able to target these sub-sonic missiles as soon as they are over the radar horizon, if they fail there are shorter range missiles which again should have no problem taking down cruse missiles and for the last few hundred meters there are automatically targeting 30mm cannons (4000 supersonic rounds per minute!!). Beyond the ship itself, you'd also expect continual air support whilst actually in a war.
Obviously all three (+ air support) of these systems failed, the photos showed the S-300 hatches still closed. It appears the ship made no attempt to defend itself - why? They knew Ukraine were developing these missiles, they are just an evolution from an older Soviet model. They also knew all manner or NATO weaponry was flooding into Ukraine.
This seems like either yet another massive military leadership failure or a catastrophic equipment/systems failure. How does Putin deal with this mess?
So the US has announced it is sending more weapons to Ukraine, including heavy artillery this time. The west has ignored Russia's plea to stop sending weapons that are "prolonging the war". The stated aim is to push the Russians back, not just stop them from taking more territory. It is very hard to see how we can get to realistic peace negotiations without a lot more destruction on both sides. But if this new offensive is a failure - if the Russians do not make a signficiant breakthrough but do keep sustaining losses of hardware and troops at the current rate - then there is no reason for the Ukrainians to accept territorial losses in exchange for peace. They will keep fighting, hoping that Russia will eventually be broken economically and/or that Putin loses control of his army.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
clv101 wrote: ↑19 Apr 2022, 20:48
How does Putin deal with this mess?
He can't. This is brutally exposing the weaknesses of despotic, corrupt autocracy. Putin is the embezzler-in-chief, and everybody climbing the greasy pole below him is following suit. People willing to speak truth to power don't make it very far. Really talented people try to emigrate. Putin clearly assumed that Russia was sufficiently larger than its opponent that quantity would eventually overwhelm quality, just like it did in WW2. If that strategy doesn't work, there's no way to fix it. The whole structure is rotten, and there's no way to fix it without changing the whole political system in Russia, which necessarily requires the removal of the corruption at the top.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
The initial assault was indeed a disaster for Russia but now they are returning to a much more tried and tested strategy given their forces. Massive long range artillery to soften up the enemy and disrupt their logistics, followed by probing attacks to work out their weak points, and then a large assault with concentrated heavy armour only a short distance from their supply bases back in Russia and separatist held territory.
It is reported they have improved their communications and electronic countermeasures and are using more of their air power.
Also loads of deliberately murderous shelling of civilian areas and infrastructure to demoralise the enemy.
The Ukrainians are in a real hurry to get the heavy weapons the US have promised.
a much more tried and tested strategy given their forces. Massive long range artillery to soften up the enemy and disrupt their logistics, followed by probing attacks to work out their weak points, and then a large assault with concentrated heavy armour only a short distance from their supply bases back in Russia and separatist held territory.
Exactly.
If the Russians still have massive stocks of shells, artillery, Grads etc then I wouldn't want to be in a Ukrainian front line right now.
That said, the Russian troops are being hit with unusually accurate fire at the moment.
Catweazle wrote: ↑19 Apr 2022, 21:57
I'd love to know how many satellites are over Ukraine right now.
Retasking existing satellites CAN be done ... but it uses vital fuel and so the satellite lifetime is greatly reduced.
It might be better to launch a dedicated satellite.
Maxar is planning to launch some Ukraine dedicated satellites ... but this will take weeks or even months to do.
(Their current satellites manage to image the country very effectively)
