Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

World service is reporting that Russia has sent a formal diplomatic note to the us complaining that it is prolonging the conflict by providing weapons.

[Stumuz2]

World service is reporting that Russia has sent a formal diplomatic note to the us complaining that it is prolonging the conflict by providing weapons.

Oh the irony!
They say it with a straight face as well

[invalid]

Putin's trolls are getting desperate!!

No actual reply. Several of your recent lengthy posts have been based on a false premise. Who is the real troll? Or, it is okay to get confused occasionally. I suppose. The russophobia, though, is tiring.

[UndercoverElephant]

Who is the real troll?

You. You're either Russian, or being paid by the Russians, to post pro-Russian propaganda on this forum. And you are being continually called out for it.

Just admit who/what you are, instead of pretending to be something else.

[Vortex2]

In view of the close connection between Maxar and the US government, Russia could well blame the US for the loss of the Moskva and also for many of their other combat losses.

The list of countries Russia can blame for its combat losses is a long one. It is not just the US who is providing Ukraine with equipment, intelligence and money. It's not even just NATO countries. It's basically the entire western world. Russia, meanwhile, is basically on its own. Even the Chinese are not exactly rushing to help them, and why should they? The weaker Russia gets, the stronger the Chinese position becomes.

The US has now admitted that it's helping the Ukrainians target Russians inside Ukraine.
This is turning into a US-Russia conflict.
I suspect that Russia will lose ... it has a GDP less than that of Texas.

"Amid the Russia-led invasion of Ukraine, the United States is set to supply the war-torn nation with more intelligence to attack Russian military formations in Russian-occupied Donbas and Crimea, according to a Wall Street Journal report. As a part of a transition in US assistance that also includes a new security aid package with stronger equipment, the Biden administration is significantly expanding the intelligence it is giving to Ukraine's forces so they may target Moscow's military divisions in Donbas and Crimea."

[UndercoverElephant]

This is turning into a US-Russia conflict.

That is what it has always been, at least from the point of view of Vladimir Putin.

I suspect that Russia will lose ... it has a GDP less than that of Texas.

I am not sure what a win looks like for Russia at this point. It can presumably take a bit more land in eastern Ukraine, probably at a very high price in terms of their own lives and equipment. But it cannot hold on to that territory and also normalise its future relationship with the western world. The sanctions will remain in place for the forseeable future. Russia will be reduced to a giant version of North Korea. If that is winning, what does losing look like?

[PS_RalphW]

There are reports that the US is running short of the high tech missiles and drones that it is sending to Ukraine - at least in terms of spares not needed for their own forces in the short term. The US will need to decide how much it is willing to compromise the defensive reserves for its own troops in case of another war opening up, for example with Chinese backed forces somewhere, or North Korea throwing a toy out of the pram.

Russia has enough 'dumb' weapons to smash Ukraine for years. The US may need to give Ukraine more offensive weapons systems instead, which would be a significant escalation.

It is clear that Putin wants to get some quick win in the south so that he can declare victory in time for the WWII celebrations in May and withdraw the majority of his forces. Then, if Ukraine still has enough fight, they will quickly rout the remaining forces in the east and Putin will just keep it out of the Russian media. I think he will do their best to hold on to Crimea. Maybe then Putin will 'retire' and die of 'natural causes' soon afterwards.

I can daydream.

[Stumuz2]

I think he will do their best to hold on to Crimea.

I have been thinking along those lines. Strategically difficult to hold on to if Putin cannot guarantee a supply corridor. Now would be the opportune moment to retake Crimea. An important black sea asset.

[Stumuz2]

Boris Johnson and twelve others banned from Russia.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... g-country/

"Russia's Foreign Ministry said the decision was taken because the UK had tried to isolate Russia and "strangle" its economy following the invasion.

It said in a statement that the move was due to the "unprecedented hostile actions" of the British government, referencing the sanctions imposed on Russian senior officials"


Source of some pride. Whilst Germany has been doing its aiding and abetting genocide schtick, France doing its butt kissing routine, Britain was sending high tech lethal weapons before the invasion.

No wonder Macron has all but stopped the effort of preventing migrant crossings from calais. He is not in a good mood.

[Stumuz2]

Looks like most of the crew died on the Moskva.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ip-moskva/

[Vortex2]

>> Britain was sending high tech lethal weapons before the invasion.

I don't know what you call it, but that sounds like irresponsible meddling to me.

Did British voters sign up for this?

Will all those having to decide between food and heating later in the year appreciate our tinkering in the affairs of a foreign counry which is not part of the EU, not part of NATO and which has no connection of any sort with the UK?
It's not even as if Ukraine is a true democracy ... it isn't.

Apparently we even have SAS 'advisers' on the ground in Ukraine.
Shades of US advisors in Indo-China prior to the Vietnam war.

This whole business seems to be a Western inspired attempt at regime change - or even regime destruction - using Ukraine as an excuse.

From now on few countries and few individuals will be prepared to standup to Western demands .... they will fear 'cancellation' both nationally and at the personal level.

This caution will also result in self-censorship etc by individuals and corporations WITHIN the Western countries.
If we can destroy Russia then we can certainly demolish any troublemakers within our borders.

(In Germany ... which is currently still buying Russian gas and oil ... if you wear the Ukraine badge then fine - but if you wear a Z badge you will be punished. The mental gymnastics required to deal with all this would give even Winston in 1984 a headache)

[PS_RalphW]

Britain sends high tech lethal weapons to dozens of countries including Saudi Arabia and plenty of other very questionable regimes. It is one of our biggest export trades, and extremely immoral. Ukraine was well down the list of countries where 'meddling' could be used as an adjective.

[Default0ptions]

“A Ukrainian military transport plane carrying a large batch of weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western countries was shot down in the air by Russian air defense means near Odessa”

Fair game if it was in contested airspace, and carrying weapons destined for the theatre, but Vortex is right that, from Russia’s perspective, weapon shipments are intolerable - and ‘intelligence sharing’ assets may well come under fire too.

I’m really not sure that some of you get this. It really doesn’t matter how our (western) propaganda portrays this. Or whatever personal opinions we may have. The driving force behind this is that Russia sees this as a fight instigated by the US for its (Russia’s) very existence.

They don’t care what we say; they care what we do. This is a major power play on the world stage.

This whole thing could be over if the US would just stop poking the bear. (Europe has no voice in this - the US is more than happy, and maybe even intends, to throw us under the bus).

But no. We’ve sanctioned ourselves into a commodity and energy crisis and actively collaborate in our own brainwashing about US geopolitical manoeuvres that make no sense for European peace and security.

I despair.

And Ralph, I think ‘meddling’ might have been a verb not an adjective there.

[BritDownUnder]

I have often wondered how the UK could send 2000 NLAW missiles to Ukraine and then what? How many are in storage? I understand they are made by Shorts in Belfast and also by Sweden? It would be interesting how many NLAWs are made per week. 50? 100? Would being in Belfast lead to some operation by the IRA (they go back a long way in their association with Russian and Soviet intelligence services) to stop production.

Maybe there will need to be a significant amount of retooling in other industries. No wonder why the British Aerospace and Rolls Royce shares have gone up.

Also what technology goes into an NLAW. Perhaps the electronics is little different to that in an XBox other than it has to withstand high accelerations.

[adam2]

I doubt that the missiles are made on a continuous basis of a certain number a week.

Much more likely is that specialist items of this nature are made in batches as ordered by HM forces. 1000 units ordered means 1,000 made and delivered, perhaps at a specified number per week until the order has been met. The factory then changes to making something else, military or civilian.
In the next financial year, HM forces might order another 1,000, or some other number, in order to increase stocks or to replace missiles used in live fire exercises.

In time of war, the factory hopefully can make more of the weapons at short notice. And if they can not, alternatives from other suppliers are hopefully available.

Or of course these weapons may now be superseded by an improved version, in which case those missiles expended WILL NOT be replaced on a "like for like" basis but will be replaced by the improved version.
If the weapons were due to be replaced by an improved version in any case, then they cost almost nothing to fire.
I expect that the free world can build anti tank missiles faster than Russia can build tanks.